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BioNTech stock forecast: Can boosters give shares a boost?


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Munich/Bavaria/Germany - 11/16/2020: Coronavirus vaccine and a syringe on a white glossy surface.
BioNTech stock forecast: Can boosters give shares a boost? Photo: Shutterstock

Since its 2019 IPO, the BioNTech (NYSE: BNTX) share price has risen by over 1500%. This has been driven largely by the rollout of the Comirnaty vaccine, developed with pharmaceutical giant Pfizer.

One and a half years have passed since BioNTech joined the race to develop a Covid-19 vaccine, and a staggering  2bn doses have already been distributed worldwide. 

With the roll out of pediatric vaccines and booster shots, as well as promising oncology treatments in the pipeline, could the BioNTech share price soar higher, or with the world glued to Covid-19 headlines, has good news already been priced in? 

BIONTECH STOCK PRICE FORECAST

BioNTech came to market after its 2019 IPO, with shares initially trading at $13.90. The company  originally focused on patient-specific immunotherapies for treatment of cancer and other serious diseases.

In April 2020, after the pandemic hit, BioNTech announced that it was planning to jointly develop a Covid-19 vaccine with Pfizer, combining BioNTech’s now famous mRNA technology with Pfizer’s expertise in vaccine development and global manufacturing network. 

November 2020 saw the announcement of successful Phase 3 trial results, and the BioNTech share price rose past the $100 mark. As the vaccine was rolled out in the first half of 2021, the BioNTech share price grew steadily, reaching $200 by May 2021. 

July saw the BioNTech stock spike as the spread of the Delta variant led to Covid-19 cases increasing rapidly in the US. On 9 August, the share price reached an all-time high of $464, before declining slightly over the autumn. 

The Pfizer-BioNTech Comirnaty vaccine was the first shot to be given full FDA approval in August 2021.

On 20 September, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) confirmed that Covid-19 boosters would be rolled out to vulnerable adults, rather than the wider population. Between 17 September and 1 October, the BioNTech share price fell from a high of $370 to around $250 on the news, a drop of over 30%. 

BNTX stock price analysis: Technical view

According to TradingView, the relative strength index (RSI) for BioNTech is currently neutral at 45.91, following significant volatility since 2019. 

The pharma company has seen several periods of high RSI, with levels pushing above 70 in March, July and December 2020 and for extended periods between April and August 2021. 

A move above 70 signals that a stock may be overbought and about to experience a possible corrective price pullback. Despite earlier high levels, current RSI values do not suggest downward pressure on the BioNTech share price. 

BioNTech stock chart 2016-2021

BioNTech stock news: Q3 results 

BioNTech announced its Q3 results on 9 November 2021. It posted revenue of €6.1bn, a significant increase on the €67.5m in the prior-year quarter. This was overwhelmingly driven by increases in commercial revenues from the distribution of 2bn doses of the Covid-19 vaccine. 

BioNTech made a profit of €3.21bn in Q3 2021, compared to a loss of €210m in the same quarter last year. This equates to earnings per diluted share (EPS) of €12.35, up from a loss of €0.88 in the prior-year quarter. 

The results exceeded analyst expectations: according to data from MarketBeat, consensus EPS before Q3 results were announced was $10.54, or €9.09. 

Could booster shots provide an opportunity?

Rising US Covid-19 cases, despite high vaccination rates, have strengthened the case for booster shots. BioNTech issued a statement with its third-quarter results, confirming that “clinical data to date supports a third dose booster of the vaccine in adults to augment vaccine protection over time”. 

The FDA has only approved booster shots for adults over 65 and vulnerable younger groups, but trial results on all adults have been encouraging. If booster shots are needed regularly, FDA approval is an even bigger opportunity for BioNTech: Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said in a recent interview that “the most likely scenario is annual vaccination”.

New reported Covid-19 cases in the US

Children’s vaccines

The US has purchased 50m pediatric doses of the Comirnaty vaccine, and is currently undertaking trials on infants aged six months to two years. With over 20m under fives in the US alone, rollout to younger children could represent a significant opportunity for BioNTech. 

Beyond Covid-19: Oncology treatments 

During third-quarter results, BioNTech also announced positive news for its oncology portfolio, including Phase 2 randomized trials of an mRNA Cancer Vaccine. The first patient was also dosed in a trial for individualized immunotherapy for high-risk colorectal cancer patients. 

Can boosters give the share price a boost? 

Despite the announcement of broadly positive Q3 results on 9 November, the BioNTech share price fell from a high of $242.60 on 8 November to $226.37 the following day – a fall of over 6%.

The share price has risen by over 250% over the past twelve months, and some analysts argue that good news about boosters is already priced into this jump. 

On 20 September, the FDA announced that boosters should be restricted to high risk and elderly individuals. Speaking to Yahoo Finance the following day, JP Morgan analyst Cory Kasimov stressed that he anticipates the eventual wider roll out of a booster jab, but that this was having a limited impact on his price target.

“Bigger picture, our model already contemplates eventual (relatively) widespread use of boosters, but we still believe BNTX (and MRNA) shares remain detached from fundamental valuation metrics and continue to trade primarily on momentum/COVID-19 headlines,” Kasimov told Yahoo Finance.
 

BioNTech share price forecast

Analysts rate BioNTech a consensus ‘hold’, with five ‘buy’ ratings, seven ‘hold’ ratings and one ‘sell’ rating, according to MarketBeat

BioNTech stock price predictions for the next twelve month period range from a low of $126 to a high of $433. The analyst price target consensus is currently $272.31, approximately a 9% of potential upside on the current (16 November) share price.

CHART

Twelve analysts have covered BioNTech this year, with three reporting since late September when the FDA met to determine eligibility for Covid boosters. 

Following Q3 results, JP Morgan’s Cory Kasimov set BioNTech’s price target to $180, a 20.38% potential downside on the share price at the time. Jefferies left their higher target price unchanged in September 2021 – at $230 it represents a 0.47% potential upside on the current share price. 

Most recently, HC Wainwright upgraded the stock from a ‘neutral’ to a ‘buy’ rating, and increased its price target significantly from $242 to $360 – a 59% potential upside on the current share price. 
 

BioNTech stock analyst price targets and ratings in 2021

Note that analyst forecasts can be wrong. Forecasts shouldn’t be used as a substitute for your own research. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing. And never invest or trade money you cannot afford to lose.

BNTX stock forecast in the longer term (2021-2025) 

Though analysts rarely look beyond a 12-month time horizon, Wallet Investor’s forecasts use historical price movements to predict prices in the longer term. According to their algorithm-based service, the share price could approach $275 by the end of 2021 and hit an all time high of $500 by December 2022. 

Wallet Investor’s forecasts are also bullish in the more long-term, and see the stock reaching $525 in January 2023, rising to $774 by January 2024 and passing the $1000 mark by December 2024. According to Wallet Investor’s BioNTech stock predictions, the share price could hit $1,272 by December 2025 and $1,478 by November 2026. 

BioNTech forecast, long-term price predictions for 2022-2023

Note that algorithm-based predictions are often wrong and past performance cannot guarantee future results. Forecasts shouldn’t be used as a substitute for your own research. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing. And never invest or trade money you can't afford to lose. 

FAQs

BNTX stock - buy, sell or hold?

Analysts rate BioNTech a consensus ‘hold’, with five ‘buy’ ratings, seven ‘hold’ ratings and one ‘sell’ rating, according to MarketBeat

Note that predictions are often wrong. Forecasts shouldn’t be used as a substitute for your own research. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing. And never invest or trade money you can't afford to lose.

Is BioNTech a good investment?

Analysts have rated BioNTech a consensus ‘hold’ according toMarketBeat. Price targets range from $126 to $433, with an average price target of $272.31. 

Note that predictions are often wrong. You should always conduct your own research before making any investment or trading decision.

Will the BNTX stock price go up or down?

According to MarketBeat, the analyst price target consensus is $272.31 – an 8.71% potential upside on the current (16 November) share price.

Wallet Investor uses historical price movements to predict future prices over a longer term. Its forecasts see the BTNX share price possibly passing $1,000 by December 2024 and $1,478 by November 2026. 

Note that analyst predictions are often wrong. Forecasts shouldn’t be used as a substitute for your own research. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing. And never invest or trade money you cannot afford to lose.

Read more: Asana stock forecast: Is ASAN still a buy?

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