HENSOLDT stock forecast: Record orders

HENSOLDT is a German defence electronics company that reported record 2025 order intake of €4.71bn and guided for approximately €2.75bn in revenue in 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Explore third-party HAG price targets and technical analysis.

By Dan Mitchell2 hours ago

Photo: Shutterstock

HENSOLDT AG (HAG) is trading at €82.735 as of 4:07pm UTC on 16 March 2026, within an intraday range of €77.47-€82.865 on Capital.com’s quote feed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The move comes amid broader strength in European defence stocks, supported by Germany’s 2026 defence budget of €108.2 billion, the highest in the Federal Republic’s history (Bloomberg, 28 November 2025),. HENSOLDT reported record order intake of €4,710 million for fiscal year 2025, up 62% year on year, and guided for 2026 revenue of approximately €2.75 billion (Investing.com, 26 February 2026). Adding to the positive backdrop, Jefferies upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold on 8 March 2026 with a €90 price target, noting that the company’s free cash flow guidance of €204 million-€209 million for 2026 appears conservative given the scale of expected advance payments across more than 70 proposals representing approximately €48 billion (Investing.com, 9 March 2026).

HENSOLDT stock forecast 2026–2030: Third-party price targets

As of 16 March 2026, third-party HENSOLDT stock predictions reflect a broadly constructive but divergent picture, shaped by Germany’s accelerating defence budget, record 2025 order intake, and near-term uncertainty around margin delivery and capital expenditure.

Barclays (Hold maintained)

Barclays analyst Afonso Osorio maintains a Hold rating on HENSOLDT with a 12-month HAG stock forecast of €97. The Hold stance reflects a balanced view of the company’s order book strength against execution risk, amid uncertainty about the pace of margin recovery across key defence electronics programmes (The Globe and Mail, 27 February 2026).

Deutsche Bank (Buy maintained)

Deutsche Bank analyst Christophe Menard reaffirms a Buy rating on HENSOLDT with a 12-month price target of €101. Menard cites strong free cash flow as a quality signal and notes continued growth in European defence electronics demand as a core assumption underpinning the target (The Globe and Mail, 28 February 2026).

Warburg Research (Buy reaffirmed)

Warburg Research analyst Christian Cohrs reaffirms a Buy rating and keeps the 12-month price target at €91. Cohrs describes the stock as attractive at current levels, with the target anchored in expectations of continued order momentum and solid earnings delivery across both of HENSOLDT’s reporting segments (MarketScreener, 26 February 2026).

Jefferies (upgrade to Buy)

Jefferies analyst Chloe Lemarie upgrades HENSOLDT to Buy from Hold and sets a 12-month HAG stock forecast of €90. The upgrade is driven by the continued influx of German defence orders through 2026, which Lemarie considers sufficient to make the company’s own free cash flow guidance appear conservative, with the lower share valuation providing an improved entry point (The Globe and Mail, 9 March 2026).

Simply Wall St (consensus snapshot)

Simply Wall St reports a consensus 12-month price target of approximately €96.18 for HENSOLDT, with individual analyst estimates ranging from €70 to €120. The breadth of estimates reflects differing assumptions about earnings growth, profit margins, and programme execution risk as European defence investment continues to scale (Simply Wall St, 6 March 2026).

Takeaway: individual HENSOLDT stock predictions span €90-€101. Buy-rated analysts at Deutsche Bank and Warburg Research sit at the higher end, while the Jefferies and Warburg Buy calls converge near €90-€91. Blended consensus sits near €96.18, while Hold-rated Barclays at €97 reflects caution on execution.

Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

HAG stock price: Technical overview

The HAG stock price trades at €82.735 as of 4:07pm UTC on 16 March 2026, holding within the day’s €77.47-€82.865 range and sitting just beneath the session high. Price trades above a broad moving-average cluster, with the 20/50/100-day SMAs at approximately €79/€82/€81, though the 200-day SMA at approximately €89 remains overhead and registers a sell signal, flagging longer-term resistance that the price has yet to reclaim.

The 20-over-50 SMA alignment is intact, keeping the near-term trend constructive. The 14-day relative strength index reads 56.38, an upper-neutral reading that reflects recovering but not yet extended momentum. With ADX at 17.39, trend strength is modest, and the move lacks strong directional conviction for now.

On the topside, the classic R1 pivot at €81.97 has effectively been tested intraday, with the last price at €82.735 sitting just above it. A sustained daily close above that level keeps R2 near €89.53 in view, which converges closely with the 200-day SMA. A convincing push through the €89-€90 area would be needed to signal a more durable recovery towards R3 near €101.88.

On pullbacks, the classic pivot at €77.18 marks initial support, broadly consistent with the intraday low at €77.47. Below that, the 20-day SMA near €79 and the 100-day SMA near €81 form a layered moving-average shelf. Losing the €77 pivot area on a closing basis would raise the risk of a move towards S1 at €69.62 (TradingView, 16 March 2026).

This is technical analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.

HENSOLDT share price history (2024–2026)

HENSOLDT listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange in September 2020 and has grown into one of Europe’s most closely watched defence electronics names.

HAG’s stock price was trading around €35 in March 2024, then climbed sharply through the spring, reaching the low-to-mid €40s by early April 2024 before pulling back. The stock spent much of mid-2024 consolidating in the €33-€37 range, before a strong rally in late 2024 drove it well above €90, with the price touching an intraday high of €117.82 on 6 October 2025, the peak of the dataset. That move reflected stronger investor interest in European defence amid rising NATO spending commitments and Germany’s expanding defence budget.

A broad retracement followed from late October 2025, with HAG sliding from above €95 to the mid-€40s in the following months before recovering. By early 2026, the stock had bounced back towards the mid-to-upper €80s, opening the year at €75.13 on 2 January 2026 and trading at €82.735 on 16 March 2026, approximately 10.8% higher year to date.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

HENSOLDT (HAG): Capital.com analyst view

HENSOLDT’s price performance over the past two years reflects a sharp re-rating of European defence electronics, with HAG climbing from around €35 in early 2024 to an intraday peak above €117 in October 2025, driven largely by Germany’s accelerating rearmament spending and record order intake of €4,710 million in fiscal year 2025, up 62% year on year. The structural case centres on Germany’s 2026 defence budget of approximately €108 billion, a 25% year-on-year increase targeting 2.6% of GDP, which translates into concrete, long-duration demand for HENSOLDT’s radar, electronic warfare, and optoelectronics systems. At the same time, the same geopolitical tailwinds that drove the rally could fade quickly. Any credible Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement or a shift in NATO spending timelines could weaken a key demand assumption and weigh on sentiment.

The more persistent challenge lies in execution. Supply chain constraints on electronic components and ongoing hiring difficulties continue to slow the conversion of HENSOLDT’s substantial backlog into revenue, and the company’s 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin guidance of 18.5%-19.0% sits below some prior analyst expectations. Capacity expansion plans, including a new Ulm site targeting 1,000 radars per year from 2027, could ease those bottlenecks over time, though they also raise near-term capital expenditure and add to cost pressure. Whether the order book ultimately translates into durable earnings growth, or remains partially constrained by operational limits, is a key variable shaping the range of outcomes for the stock from current levels.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Capital.com’s client sentiment for HENSOLDT CFDs

As of 16 March 2026, Capital.com client positioning in HENSOLDT CFDs stands at 94.3% buyers versus 5.7% sellers, which puts buyers ahead by 88.68 percentage points and places sentiment firmly in one-sided long territory. This snapshot reflects open positions on Capital.com at the time of capture and can change as market conditions evolve.

Summary – HENSOLDT 2026

HAG trades at €82.735 as of 4:07pm UTC on 16 March 2026, well above March 2024 levels near €35 but below the October 2025 peak above €117.
Technical indicators lean constructive: price holds above the 20/50/100-day SMA cluster, RSI sits at 56.38 in upper-neutral territory, and ADX at 17.39 reflects a modest rather than strong directional trend.
Key price drivers include Germany’s approximately €108 billion 2026 defence budget, record 2025 order intake of €4,710 million, and sustained European demand for radar and electronic warfare systems.
Execution risks remain relevant, with supply chain constraints, elevated capital expenditure, and 2026 EBITDA margin guidance of 18.5%-19.0% sitting below some prior analyst expectations.
Recent broker activity is broadly positive: Jefferies upgraded to Buy at €90 on 8 March 2026, while Deutsche Bank and Warburg Research maintain Buy ratings at €101 and €91 respectively.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

FAQ

Who owns the most HENSOLDT stock?

HENSOLDT’s shareholder base can change over time, so ownership levels should be checked against the latest company filings or market disclosures. In broad terms, the stock is typically held by a mix of institutional investors, strategic shareholders and public market participants. For traders, ownership matters because large holders can influence liquidity, voting power and sentiment, but it does not on its own determine future price direction or company performance.

What is the 5 year HENSOLDT share price forecast?

There is no single reliable five-year HAG stock forecast, and long-range estimates should be treated with caution. Over that timeframe, the stock could be influenced by defence spending trends, order conversion, margin delivery, supply chain conditions and wider market sentiment. Longer-term forecasts are also more sensitive to assumptions that may change. That means any five-year outlook is best viewed as a scenario, not a fixed expectation.

Is HENSOLDT a good stock to buy?

Whether HENSOLDT is a good stock to buy depends on an individual’s goals, risk tolerance and time horizon. The article outlines supportive factors such as record order intake, Germany’s rising defence budget and broadly constructive technical signals. It also highlights risks, including execution pressure, supply chain constraints and margin uncertainty. That balance means the stock may appeal to some market participants, but suitability depends on personal circumstances rather than the company alone.

Could HENSOLDT stock go up or down?

HENSOLDT stock could move in either direction, depending on how fundamental and market factors develop. On the upside, continued defence spending, further order growth and stronger cash flow could support sentiment. On the downside, weaker execution, higher capital expenditure, margin pressure or a shift in geopolitical assumptions could weigh on the share price. Technical levels may help frame short-term scenarios, but they do not remove uncertainty or predict outcomes with certainty.

Should I invest in HENSOLDT stock?

Whether you should invest in HENSOLDT is a personal decision and not something this article can determine. The stock has exposure to major structural themes in European defence, but it also carries company-specific and market-wide risks. Investors usually consider valuation, financial performance, growth prospects and downside risk before making a decision. If you are unsure, it may help to review the company’s fundamentals carefully and consider independent financial advice.

Can I trade HENSOLDT CFDs on Capital.com?

Yes, you can trade HENSOLDT CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.