Gold price forecast: FOMC and Kharg Island risks

Gold is trading near $5,000 as markets assess the FOMC outlook, softer US dollar conditions and ongoing disruption risks linked to Iran’s Kharg Island oil export facilities. Explore third-party Gold price targets and technical analysis. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

By Dan Mitchellan hour ago

Stack of gold bars — Photo: Shutterstock

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $5,000.01 as of 2:44pm UTC on 16 March 2026, within an intraday range of $4,974.17 – $5,124.69. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty tied to the US–Iran conflict, including reported consideration of US military action targeting Iran's Kharg Island oil facilities, which handle roughly 90% of Iran's oil exports, has sustained some safe-haven interest (Reuters, 14 March 2026), while a softer US Dollar Index, trading near 99.9 on 16 March 2026, has provided a partial tailwind (Trading Economics, 16 March 2026). At the same time, the approaching FOMC meeting is reportedly keeping pressure on gold as markets weigh the possibility of the Federal Reserve revising its PCE inflation forecast higher (Investing.com, 16 March 2026).

Gold price forecast 2026-2030: Analyst price target view

As of 16 March 2026, third-party gold predictions reflect a broad consensus that structural demand, geopolitical risk and US monetary policy uncertainty continue to support elevated prices, though year-end targets span a wide range.

ING Think (quarterly path and full-year average)

ING Think projects gold averaging $4,900/oz in Q1 2026, rising to $5,100/oz in Q2, $5,300/oz in Q3 and approximately $5,450/oz in Q4, for a full-year 2026 average of roughly $5,190/oz. The bank grounds this quarterly profile in resilient investment demand, real-yield dynamics and sustained central bank activity (ING Think, 2 March 2026).

JP Morgan (year-end 2026 and long-term reset)

JP Morgan maintains its year-end 2026 gold price target at $6,300/oz while raising its long-term price estimate by 15% to $4,500/oz, citing strong demand from central banks, rising ETF inflows and expectations of a weaker US dollar. Analysts led by Gregory Shearer describe the shift in reserve diversification as structural rather than cyclical, supporting conviction across both the near- and longer-term horizon (Reuters, 25 February 2026).

ANZ (Q2 2026 peak target)

ANZ has raised its gold price forecast to $5,800/oz for Q2 2026, up from a prior target of $5,400/oz for the same period, viewing recent corrections as buying opportunities rather than trend reversals. The bank cites easing monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, persistent tariff uncertainty and doubts over Fed credibility as factors intensifying investor appetite for real assets. It expects two 25-basis-point rate cuts – in March and June – to keep real rates on a falling path (Kitco, 16 February 2026).

IndexBox (multi-bank consensus review)

A review of major institutional forecasts as of early March 2026 notes ANZ at $5,800/oz for Q2, HSBC flagging elevated volatility as its central scenario, and JP Morgan maintaining its bullish year-end stance. The spread of bank targets reflects divergent views on how quickly geopolitical and monetary tailwinds will materialise. The review notes that HSBC, in contrast to more bullish peers, emphasises downside risks from potential de-escalation in geopolitical flashpoints and the possibility of a less accommodative Fed than markets currently price (IndexBox, 13 March 2026).

Takeaway: across these sources, 2026 average gold predictions cluster between $5,190/oz (ING Think) and $5,620/oz (BNP Paribas), while year-end and quarterly peak targets from JP Morgan and ANZ sit materially higher at $6,300/oz and $5,800/oz respectively. Central bank demand, the Fed's rate trajectory and geopolitical risk are the near-universal common threads.

Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Gold price: Technical overview

On the daily chart, Gold spot trades at $5,000.01, sitting below its short-term moving average cluster – the 20/50/100/200-day SMAs at approximately $5,115 / $4,955 / $4,571 / $4,058. Price is currently below the 20- and 50-day SMAs but holding well above the 100- and 200-day SMAs, leaving the broader structural trend intact while the near-term picture is softer. The 14-day RSI at 46.8 sits in neutral territory, showing neither oversold conditions nor strong momentum, while the ADX at 12.6 signals a weak trend environment, suggesting that price is consolidating rather than trending with conviction.

To the upside, the nearest classic pivot resistance is R1 at $5,572. A convincing daily close above that level would put the R2 area near $5,866 back in view. The $5,000 figure itself acts as a round-number reference, with the 20-day SMA at $5,115 and the volume-weighted moving average near $5,121 forming an immediate overhead band that price would need to reclaim.

On pullbacks, the classic pivot (P) at $4,987 provides initial support just below current price. A slip through that level would bring the 50-day SMA shelf near $4,955 into focus as the next meaningful reference. Losing the $4,955 area on a closing basis would risk a deeper move towards S1 at $4,694, with the 100-day SMA near $4,571 representing the broader structural floor that underpins the long-term uptrend (TradingView, 16 March 2026).

This is technical analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.

Gold price history (2024–2026)

The gold spot price opened 2024 around $2,625/oz and spent much of the year grinding higher, driven by central bank demand, geopolitical tensions and growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. The metal crossed $2,700/oz in September 2024 and pushed towards $2,790/oz by late October, before pulling back and closing the year at $2,624.69/oz on 31 December 2024.

2025 marked a decisive acceleration. Gold started the year near $2,624/oz, then broke above $3,000/oz for the first time in mid-March 2025, closing at $3,000.08/oz on 17 March, before continuing higher through spring and summer. A brief retreat to around $3,087/oz in early April gave way to a fresh push, with gold setting successive highs through the second half of the year and closing 2025 at $4,319.14/oz on 31 December – up approximately 64.6% year on year.

2026 opened with extraordinary volatility. Gold surged to an intraday high of $5,595.75/oz on 29 January amid the escalating US–Iran conflict, before a sharp pullback brought the metal briefly below $4,404/oz on 2 February. It subsequently recovered, re-establishing itself above $5,000/oz through late February and into March. XAU/USD is trading at $5,001.06 on 16 March 2026 – approximately 15.8% up year to date and 67.4% up year on year.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Gold price outlook: Capital.com analysis

Gold spot's (XAU/USD) trajectory over the past two years reflects a significant structural shift in how investors and institutions approach the metal. The move from around $2,625/oz at the start of 2025 to above $5,000/oz by March 2026 has been shaped by persistent central bank accumulation, safe-haven demand tied to geopolitical tensions, including the US–Iran conflict, and expectations of a softer Federal Reserve policy stance. That said, the sharp intraday swings seen in early February 2026, when price fell from near $5,596/oz to below $4,404/oz within days, illustrate how quickly sentiment can reverse, particularly if geopolitical risks de-escalate or US inflation data undermine the case for rate cuts.

At current levels, gold faces a genuine two-sided debate. Some analysts point to structural de-dollarisation trends, ongoing central bank demand and real-rate uncertainty as reasons for continued support. Others argue that prices already reflect a significant risk premium, leaving the metal vulnerable to profit-taking or a stronger-than-expected US dollar recovery. The $5,000/oz level carries psychological weight in both directions.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Capital.com’s client sentiment for Gold CFDs

As of 16 March 2026, Capital.com client positioning in Gold spot CFDs stands at 78.8% buyers vs 21.2% sellers, putting buyers ahead by 57.6 percentage points and placing sentiment firmly in heavy-buy, one-sided-towards-longs territory. This snapshot reflects open positions on Capital.com and can change rapidly as market conditions evolve.

Summary – Gold price 2026

Gold spot (XAU/USD) is trading at $5,001.06 as of 2:44pm UTC on 16 March 2026, within a session range of $4,970.38 – $5,038.41. The metal has risen roughly 91% over the past two years from around $2,624/oz at end-2024.
Technically, price sits below the short-term moving average cluster, with the 20- and 50-day SMAs near $5,115 and $4,955 respectively, while the 14-day RSI at 46.8 remains in neutral territory and the ADX at 12.6 signals a weak trend environment.
The FOMC meeting is a key near-term focus, with markets weighing the possibility of a revised PCE inflation forecast. A more hawkish outcome could pressure gold, while a dovish tilt or a rate-cut signal would likely support it.
The US–Iran conflict continues to underpin safe-haven demand, though any de-escalation could unwind the geopolitical risk premium that has helped sustain prices above $5,000/oz since February.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

FAQ

What is the Gold price forecast?

Third-party forecasts referenced in this article suggest that analysts remain broadly constructive on gold in 2026, although targets vary widely. Full-year average estimates cited range from around $5,190/oz to $5,620/oz, while some year-end or peak projections sit higher. These forecasts are based on factors such as central bank demand, geopolitical risk and expectations around US monetary policy. Forecasts can change quickly, so they should be treated as market views rather than certainties.

Could Gold’s price go up or down?

Gold’s price could move in either direction, depending on how macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions develop. Ongoing safe-haven demand, central bank buying and a weaker US dollar may continue to support prices. At the same time, stronger US data, a more hawkish Federal Reserve or easing geopolitical tensions could weigh on gold. As recent price action shows, gold can also experience sharp swings, so both upside and downside scenarios remain possible.

Should I invest in Gold?

Whether gold is suitable for you depends on your objectives, risk tolerance and time horizon. Some market participants use gold to diversify exposure or to monitor periods of geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. However, gold prices can be volatile, and past performance does not guarantee future results. This article is for informational purposes only and does not provide investment advice. It is important to do your own research and consider the risks before making any trading or investment decision.

Can I trade Gold CFDs on Capital.com?

Yes, you can trade Gold CFDs on Capital.com. Trading commodity CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.