DWAC shares jump on Trump pump: But what's the outlook for Truth Social in 2023?
By Jenny McCall
12:33, 15 December 2022
Digital World Acquisition Corp (DWAC), the special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) merging with Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), to take former US President Donald Trump’s Truth Social site public, saw its stock price rise on Wednesday by 4%.
Trump announced on his Truth Social account yesterday that he would make a “major announcement” on Thursday and promised it would be something big.
So, with its stock price jumping yesterday on news that Trump has a big announcement to make, what next for DWAC in 2023?
What is your sentiment on DJT?
Digital World Acquisition Corp (DWAC) share price chart
Will 2023 be DWAC's year?
Matthew Kennedy, a Senior IPO Market Strategist at Renaissance Capital is a provider of pre-IPO research and IPO-focused ETFs, told Capital.com that he believes the deal will go ahead.
“Sure - yes obviously Truth Social's prize asset is Mr. Trump himself, and we've seen the stock rise and fall based on the perception of his exclusive use of the platform.”
But despite its share price jump yesterday, DWAC stock price has been down 58% year-to-date and the deal has also been clouded by controversy amid the civil and criminal claims surrounding the transactions, as well as Trump’s own scandals.
In August, FBI agents searched Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida. The search was part of a wider investigation into Trump’s unlawful removal and destruction of White House records after his presidency. As a result, the politician and businessman will face a series of investigations and lawsuits.
But experts are optimistic the deal will go ahead, and this makes DWAC’s future in 2023 a little brighter.
“The outstanding DOJ and SEC investigations make it impossible to know whether the merger will happen. I expect it will: It would take some serious wrongdoing or misrepresentation to undo the merger agreement. If the regulator terminates the deal, or forces it to terminate via indefinite delays, the stock would be worth a little over $10 as the trust is returned to shareholders,” Kennedy added.
Last month, after months of delays investors in the blank-check acquisition company voted to approve an extension of time DWAC needs to complete a deal.
The DWAC now has until September 2023 to finalise its plans, giving DWAC chief executive Patrick Orlando the victory he needs.
But DWAC is not out of the woods - just yet and 2023 may hold some problems for the stock.
“The SPAC’s trading has been mostly disconnected from its fundamentals. But fundamentally buying a pre-revenue media company with a multi-billion-dollar valuation carries a great deal of risk,” Kennedy said.
Without shareholder support, DWAC may face liquidation and would have to return all of the money it raised in its September 2021 initial public offering (IPO), according to Reuters.
Back in September Orlando said: "We are working diligently to record all votes that are continuing to come in from our stockholders and our adjourning this meeting to allow for additional time for stockholders to cast their votes."
It was thought that DWAC shareholders may have been wavering over its plan to take the former president’s company, TMTG public. Reputational risk, perhaps?
Shareholders were in limbo over whether to approve the deal and the DWAC share price has been feeling the pressure.
But it seems shareholders concern and worry has been eliminated - for now and DWAC has the extension it needs to help Truth Social float on the stock market.
With that said, Trump’s friend Elon Musk, who owns Twitter and Tesla (TSLA), has now reinstated the former US President’s Twitter page, after Trump was banished from the site due the attack on the US Capitol in January 2021.
Tesla (TSLA) share price chart
The people have spoken.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 20, 2022
Trump will be reinstated.
Vox Populi, Vox Dei. https://t.co/jmkhFuyfkv
Could a Trump return to Twitter affect DWAC ?
At the time Twitter released a statement saying: “After close review of recent Tweets from the @realDonaldTrump account and the context around them — specifically how they are being received and interpreted on and off Twitter — we have permanently suspended the account due to the risk of further incitement of violence.”
Once Musk took over as CEO of Twitter he released a poll, asking Twitter users whether Trump should be allowed back on the site and after almost 52% said yes, Musk followed up on his promise.
Trump, however, has not tweeted anything yet and has shown no interest in doing so. His most recent tweets remain from early 2021.
What does this mean for the merger and DWAC in the long term?
With Trump making a Twitter comeback, the threat of DWAC losing its star prize – Donald Trump, in 2023 is very real.
But analysts are optimistic that this simply won't happen.
"At least until the merger closes, it's in Trump’s financial interest to continue making that commitment,” Kennedy concluded.
So, it seems that for now, the 2023 outlook is somewhat positive for DWAC, Truth Social and Trump. As we wait with bated breath for Trump’s announcement today, one thing we know for sure, the former US leader doesn’t give up without a fight and 2023 maybe the year we see Truth Social float on the stock market.
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