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BCH/BTC prediction: Bitcoin Cash looks to stop slide against Bitcoin

By Mensholong Lepcha

Edited by Alexandra Pankratyeva

13:28, 25 August 2022

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In this article:
BCH/BTC
Bitcoin Cash / Bitcoin
0.00658 USD
0.00001 +0.150%
BCH/USD
Bitcoin Cash / USD
113.05 USD
2.7 +2.470%
BTC/USD
Bitcoin / USD
17263.70 USD
386.35 +2.290%

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Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Bitcoin (BTC) on the binary code background
BCH/BTC rate has fallen to all-time lows in 2022. Will it rebound? – Photo: leksiv / Shutterstock

Bitcoin’s (BTC) most successful hard fork Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is not having a good 2022. While most cryptocurrencies have seen their valuations drop drastically in recent months, the BCH/BTC rate has fallen to all-time lows in 2022.

As of 24 August 2022, BCH year-to-date (YTD) losses came in at about 70%, compared to BTC’s YTD losses of about 55%.

Bitcoin’s leading cryptocurrency market position and growing popularity mean that it could continue its dominance over bitcoin cash for the near future.

In this article, we have compiled important information you need to know about bitcoin and bitcoin cash. You will also find historical price analysis of BCH to BTC price rates, and analyst view and price predictions.

Bitcoin vs Bitcoin Cash: What is BCH/BTC? 

BCH/BTC is the price of bitcoin cash in terms of bitcoin.

What is bitcoin cash? Bitcoin cash (BCH) is arguably the most popular hard fork of bitcoin (BTC). It is currently (24 August) valued higher than other bitcoin hard forks.

Like bitcoin, BCH is a peer-to-peer electronic cash system that allows online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through financial institutions.

In 2017, the original bitcoin network split into two versions due to differences in ideologies within the bitcoin community. This resulted in the creation of a separate chain called bitcoin cash.

“While most of these chains have faded into irrelevancy, they did create billions of dollars of wealth for Bitcoin holders. People received these new tokens, which had a market value, and either chose to dump their freshly minted tokens for more BTC or decided to hold on to them in alignment with the vision,” said the Bankless newsletter in reference to numerous forks of bitcoin that emerged in 2017 alongside bitcoin cash.

A faction of bitcoin developers wanted to increase the block size of the bitcoin blockchain in order to enable the network to process transactions faster for less fees.

As a consensus to increase the network capacity wasn’t reached, the bitcoin chain was split on 1 August 2017. 

“Fortunately, a large portion of the Bitcoin community, including developers, investors, users, and businesses, still believed in the original vision of Bitcoin - a low fee, peer to peer electronic cash system that could be used by all the people of the world,” read bitcoin cash’s website.

The main difference between the new and old chain is the block size. The BCH chain supports 32MB blocks, compared to 1MB blocks on the BTC chain. 

BCH and BTC have several similar properties, including a hard cap of 21 million coins and using the proof-of-work (POW) consensus.

“Bitcoin cash would be better for something like a cup of coffee, while a larger purchase, such as a car or house, may warrant a slower and more secure cryptocurrency like Bitcoin,” said Daniel R. Hill, president of Hill Wealth Strategies, in conversation with Forbes.

BCH to BTC price historical performance

According to the historical BTC chart, the crypto was trading at about $2,700 on 1 August 2017. In parallel, BCH was trading at about $380. At the time, the BCH to BTC price was about 0.125.

Looking at the historical BCH chart, it is evident that the early enthusiasm for the new hard fork helped the token enjoy the best months in its history. Between 1 August 2017 and 1 December 2017, bitcoin cash surged nearly 300%, from under $400 to over $1,460. BCH hit an all-time high of $4,355.62 on 20 December 2017. It was around the same time that BTC had surged to $20,000 for the first time in its history.

The BCH/BTC exchange rate hit its record high of about 0.236 on 20 December 2017. 

Since then the BCH/BTC price chart has seen a continued downtrend. The market capitalisation of BCH has fallen from its peak of over $66bn, reached in December 2017, to its current valuation (24 August) of about $2.5bn, as of 24 August 2022.

Meanwhile, bitcoin’s valuation has grown in the same period, rising from less than $300bn to its all-time high market capitalisation of over $1.27trn, reached in November 2021. 

As of 24 August 2022, the market capitalisation of bitcoin has come down to over $407bn hurt by the crypto bear market of 2022.

The current exchange rate of BCH to BTC stands at 0.006255, as of 24 August 2022, which is about 97% below the all-time high exchange rate of 0.236 BCH/BTC.

In 2022, BCH has seen bigger losses than BTC, with the former posting year-to-date (YTD) losses of about 70% compared to the latter’s 55% YTD loss, as of 24 August 2022.

Naturally, the BCH to BTC price has extended its downward spiral to fall from 0.0093 at the start of 2022 to hit an all-time low of 0.00492 by early-July 2022. More recently, the bitcoin cash price has rallied to gain about 15% in the last 60 days, as of 24 August 2022, to outperform bitcoin’s flat price movement in the same period.

ETH/USD

1,284.84 Price
+3.940% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0500%
Short position overnight fee 0.0140%
Overnight fee time 22:00 (UTC)
Spread 5.50

DOGE/USD

0.10 Price
+2.820% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0500%
Short position overnight fee 0.0140%
Overnight fee time 22:00 (UTC)
Spread 0.0014994

BTC/USD

17,263.70 Price
+2.290% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0500%
Short position overnight fee 0.0140%
Overnight fee time 22:00 (UTC)
Spread 66.00

LUNC/USD

0.00 Price
+5.170% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0500%
Short position overnight fee -0.0500%
Overnight fee time 22:00 (UTC)
Spread 0.00000720

BCH was trading at $133 and BTC was trading at $21,412 on 24 August 2022.

Technical analysis from CoinCodex on 24 August 2022 showed that the 50-day simple moving average of BCH stood at about $126 indicating a “buy” signal. The 200-day simple moving average of BCH stood at $226 and indicated a “sell” signal, according to CoinCodex

The 14-day relative strength index came in at 51.98 and indicated a “neutral” action on 24 August 2022.
BCH/BTC five-year performance

Important BCH to BTC price drivers

In 2022, a bear market engulfed the cryptocurrency sector which has pushed crypto valuations to multi-year lows. The bear market has primarily been driven by macroeconomic conditions.

Multi-decade high inflation in the US and various other parts of the world has forced central banks to shut off cheap liquidity and raise interest rates at an aggressive pace. 

Risk asset markets of cryptos and equities have seen an intense sell-off in recent months. Investors are increasingly looking to economic data to get clues about the future pace of monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and other global central banks.

So far in 2022, the Fed has hiked rates in four of the most recent five meetings, from a near-zero rate of 0.25% in March to 2.5% by late July.

“Of late, fiscal and monetary policy have been major drivers of bitcoin prices … The outburst of initial stimulus saw rising bitcoin prices, and its withdrawal saw prices retrace,” said a bitcoin company NYDIG.

Bitcoin Magazine said in its July monthly report: “The logical response from strained debtors is to sell anything with dollar liquidity in order to make good on said liabilities: stocks, bonds, bitcoin … anything to cover a short dollar position during a short squeeze (otherwise known as a liquidity crisis).”

Bitcoin’s correlation to equity markets has reached all-time high levels in 2022. 

“The correlation of BTC to equities is likely caused by a myriad of forces, mostly connected to BTC being viewed as a risk asset by professional investors, in addition to BTC’s relationship to general liquidity and monetary policy,” said Arcane Research.

Looking forward, the Fed is expected to hike rates further at a 20 September meeting.

“Bond markets are torn between a 50 bps and 75 bps hike at the FOMC meeting on 21 September. However, the futures market signalled a peak in the Fed Funds Rate at 3.50% this year into 2023, consistent with our view,” said economists of DBS Research.

With cryptocurrencies following the footsteps of market leader BTC, coins like BCH could trail BTC’s price action movement in 2022.

BCH to BTC price prediction

Blockchain research firm Delphi Digital published a note on 19 August 2022 suggesting that the BTC price could bottom around the end of November 2022, based on a study of historical bitcoin prices.

“It is also interesting to note that in both of the previous bear markets, BTC found its price floor after falling 85%. From our current, all-time high, an 85% decrease would translate to $10,000 BTC,” said Delphi Digital.

Delphi Digital said historical BTC charts suggested “a new cycle top in August 2025”.

Meanwhile, the algorithm-based BTC price forecast from Price Prediction (as of 23 August) expected bitcoin to trade at an average price of $26,018 in 2022 and $88,043 in 2025.

Price Prediction’s BCH price forecast saw the coin trading at an average price of $161.75 in 2022 and $531 in 2025.

Elsewhere, DigitalCoinPrice’s bitcoin price prediction for 2022 expected the coin to trade at an average price of $28,320. Its bitcoin cash price prediction for 2022 saw BCH trading at an average price of $175.

Note that analysts’ BTC price predictions and BCH price forecasts can be wrong. Forecasts shouldn’t be used as a substitute for your own research.

Always conduct your own due diligence and remember that your decision to trade or invest should depend on your risk tolerance, expertise in the market, portfolio size and investment goals. Never trade more than you can afford to lose.

FAQs

Why has BCH to BTC been dropping?

Bitcoin cash’s low rate of adoption and bitcoin’s growing popularity has caused the BCH/BTC rate to fall over time.

Will BCH to BTC go up?

BCH/BTC rates have been falling since 2017 and the downtrend has continued into 2022, with exchange rates hitting an all-time low in July 2022.

When is the best time to trade BCH to BTC?

The best time to trade is after doing thorough research. Remember that your decision to trade or invest should depend on your risk tolerance, expertise in the market, portfolio size and investment goals. Never trade more than you can afford to lose.

Is BCH to BTC a buy, sell or hold?

As of 24 August, the algorithmic-based BTC price forecast from Price Prediction expected bitcoin to trade at an average price of $26,018 in 2022 and $88,043 in 2025. Price Prediction’s BCH price forecast saw the coin trading at an average price of $161.75 in 2022 and $531 in 2025.

Note that analysts’ BTC price predictions and BCH price forecasts can be wrong. Forecasts shouldn’t be used as a substitute for your own research. And never invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

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