DroneShield stock forecast: FY2025 revenue, new contracts

DroneShield (ASX: DRO) develops counter-drone systems and reported FY2025 revenue of $216.5m (+276% YoY), plus $104m secured FY2026 revenue and $21.7m in new contracts. Explore third-party DRO price targets and technical analysis. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

By Dan Mitchell7 hours ago

Counter-drone defence system targeting an unmanned aerial vehicle in the sky — Photo: Shutterstock

DroneShield Limited (DRO) is trading at $4.07 AUD as of 11:01am UTC on 6 March 2026, touching the top of its intraday range of $3.35–$4.07 AUD and extending a rally that has carried the stock from $3.32 AUD at the close of January to successive monthly highs through February and into early March. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The advance follows a cluster of company-specific catalysts: DroneShield reported full-year 2025 revenue of $216.5m, representing year-on-year growth of 276% (Investing.com, 25 February 2026), and subsequently announced six new contracts with a Western military customer totalling $21.7m, with deliveries expected in Q1 2026 (DroneShield, 26 February 2026); the company also flagged $104m in secured revenue for FY2026 at the time of its results (Quartr. 25 February 2026).

DroneShield stock forecast 2026–2030: Third-party price targets

As of 6 March 2026, third-party DroneShield stock predictions reflect the company’s FY2025 revenue of $216.5m (276% year-on-year growth), a $2.3bn sales pipeline, and a growing wave of Western military and public-safety procurement. The following targets draw on broker notes and consensus data published in late February and early March 2026.

Bell Potter (post-results broker note)

Bell Potter retains a buy rating on DroneShield with a 12-month price target of $4.80 AUD, trimmed from a prior $5 AUD following the FY2025 results, as gross margin of 64.8% came in slightly below the broker’s estimate and an $8.5m inventory impairment was recorded against earlier-model DroneGun units. The broker cites DRO’s radio-frequency C-UAS positioning, battlefield experience, and a potential wave of NATO and allied defence procurement as supporting factors, noting the stock trades at 35x CY26 estimated EV/EBITDA, at a discount to its global drone peer group (Motley Fool Australia, 27 February 2026).

Shaw and Partners (concurrent broker view)

Shaw and Partners maintains a buy rating with a 12-month price target of $5 AUD, unchanged from its January 2026 position, as the broker continues to flag the US public safety market, including $250m in funds allocated to states hosting the FIFA World Cup and America 250 events, as a near-term contract catalyst. The firm’s view aligns with Bell Potter’s on the structural shift in C-UAS procurement across NATO allies (Kalkine, 10 February 2026).

Yahoo Finance (analyst consensus)

Yahoo Finance carries a consensus 12-month DRO stock forecast of $4.90 AUD, aggregating contributing broker estimates at the time the stock was trading at $3.86 AUD. The platform notes the figure reflects analysts’ expectations around FY2026 contract conversion from DRO’s $2.3bn pipeline, amid broadening C-UAS procurement across Western militaries (Yahoo Finance, 2 March 2026).

Refinitiv (consensus snapshot)

Refinitiv records a mean consensus price target of $4.55 AUD for DroneShield with a hold consensus rating, based on contributing analyst estimates. The data reflects a wider spread of opinion than single-broker views, with the hold consensus sitting below the active buy ratings from Bell Potter and Shaw and Partners (Kalkine, 2 March 2026).

Simply Wall St (consensus update)

Simply Wall St records the most recent analyst price target revision for DroneShield as a 22% increase to $4.45 AUD, based on contributing analyst estimates. The platform notes low overall analyst coverage of the stock, with forecast revenue growth of 25.4% per annum and a future return on equity estimate of 20.0% as the key assumptions underpinning the consensus figure (Simply Wall St, 26 February 2026).

Takeaway: broker and consensus 12-month DroneShield stock predictions converge in a range of $4.45 AUD to $5 AUD, with active buy-rated brokers (Bell Potter at $4.80 AUD, Shaw and Partners at $5 AUD) sitting above the broader Refinitiv consensus of $4.55 AUD; common threads include FY2026 pipeline conversion, rising NATO and allied defence budgets, and DRO’s radio-frequency C-UAS market positioning.

Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

DRO stock price: Technical overview

On the daily chart as of 11:01am UTC on 6 March 2026, the DRO stock price trades at $4.07 AUD, pressing the top of its intraday range and sitting above a broad moving-average cluster – the 20/50/100/200-day SMAs at approximately $3.37 / $3.61 / $3.34 / $3.28 AUD – with all four averages sloping higher and the 20-over-50 alignment intact, which can indicate an upward near-term bias. The momentum picture is consistent with that setup: the 14-day RSI reads 60.31, in the upper-neutral zone, while the MACD (12, 26) holds a marginal positive reading of 0.07.

To the upside, the classic R1 pivot at $4.01 AUD has already been cleared on an intraday basis; a daily close sustained above that level would put the R2 figure at $4.39 AUD in view as the next reference. Beyond that, R3 at $5.34 AUD represents the outer pivot target, though that distance is substantial and would require a material shift in volume and follow-through.

On pullbacks, the classic pivot point at $3.44 AUD offers the first area of initial support, followed by the 100-day SMA shelf near $3.34 AUD as the more significant structural floor. A loss of the $3.34 AUD shelf on a closing basis would blunt the short-term trend and increase the likelihood of a deeper move toward the S1 pivot at $3.06 AUD.

This is technical analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.

(TradingView, 6 March 2026)

DroneShield share price history (2024–2026)

DroneShield listed on the ASX in 2015 as a counter-drone technology company, but the global surge in unmanned aerial system (UAS) threats has helped move DRO into focus among defence stocks on the exchange.

DRO’s stock price entered March 2024 at around $0.47 AUD before a stronger run took it to an all-time high of approximately $1.97 AUD in July 2024, driven by rising military procurement interest and a series of contract wins. DRO ended 2024 near $1.45 AUD after a pullback from those highs.

2025 opened with fresh momentum. The stock climbed steadily through mid-year, reaching the $4–$4.30 AUD range by August 2025, before surging to a peak of around $6.72 AUD on 8 October 2025 – its highest recorded level in the data window. A sharp correction followed through November and December 2025, pulling DRO back toward the $1.70–$2.30 AUD range amid profit-taking and governance concerns.

The price stabilised in early 2026. DRO rebounded from a low of around $2.86 AUD in mid-January to close January at $3.17 AUD, then climbed back through February following strong FY2025 earnings. DRO is trading at $4.07 AUD as of 11:01am UTC on 6 March 2026, up approximately 28.5% from its 1 January 2026 open of $3.17 AUD year to date.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

DroneShield (DRO): Capital.com analyst view

DroneShield’s price performance over the past two years reflects the rapid rise of counter-UAS as a distinct defence procurement category. The stock’s surge from under $0.50 AUD in early 2024 to a peak near $6.72 AUD in October 2025, followed by a sharp correction and a recovery to the $4 AUD area in early March 2026, illustrates both the scale of the structural demand narrative and the sensitivity of high-growth defence stocks to shifts in sentiment and governance concerns. The company’s move to profitability in FY2025, with revenue of $216.5m and a $2.3bn sales pipeline, has reinforced the near-term case; however, defence contracts are inherently lumpy, and delays in procurement cycles or budget reallocation by governments could weigh on revenue conversion.

The broader C-UAS market, estimated to reach approximately $2.73bn globally in 2026 and grow at roughly 25.9% annually through 2033, provides a potential supportive backdrop; yet DroneShield operates alongside large, well-resourced multinational defence contractors such as Raytheon Technologies and Dedrone, whose scale and existing government relationships present a competitive counterweight to DRO’s pure-play positioning. Rapid innovation in drone technology itself, including GPS-waypoint navigation that resists RF jamming, also requires continuous R&D investment that could pressure margins.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Capital.com’s client sentiment for DroneShield CFDs

As of 6 March 2026, Capital.com client positioning in DroneShield CFDs is skewed toward longs: 94.9% buyers vs 5.1% sellers, putting buyers ahead by 89.8 percentage points and placing sentiment firmly in one-sided territory toward longs. This snapshot reflects open positions on Capital.com and can change rapidly as market conditions evolve.

Summary – DroneShield 2026

As of 11:01am UTC on 6 March 2026, DRO trades at $4.07 AUD, up approximately 28.5% year to date from its $3.17 AUD open on 1 January 2026.
All major moving averages are aligned to the upside, with the 14-day RSI at 60.31 in upper-neutral territory; the classic R2 pivot at $4.39 AUD is the next upside reference.
Price drivers include FY2025 revenue of $216.5m (276% year-on-year growth), a $2.3bn sales pipeline, and ongoing NATO and allied C-UAS procurement budgets.
Risks include contract timing uncertainty, competition from large-scale defence contractors, and the sensitivity of high-growth defence stocks to broader sentiment shifts.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

FAQ

Who owns the most DroneShield stock?

DroneShield is an ASX-listed company, so its largest shareholders can change over time as institutions and other investors adjust their holdings. In practice, the biggest position is often held by a major institutional investor, the company’s founder(s), or senior insiders, but you’ll need to check the latest 'substantial holder' notices and the share registry disclosures to confirm who currently holds the largest stake. These sources provide the most reliable snapshot.

What is the 5 year DroneShield share price forecast?

There isn’t a single, reliable five-year DRO stock forecast. Most published targets tend to focus on the next 12 months, and longer-dated projections involve wider assumptions about contract timing, pipeline conversion, defence budgets, competition, and execution. Even with strong revenue growth in FY2025, defence procurement can be uneven, and price outcomes can vary materially. Use five-year forecasts as scenario discussion rather than as a precise estimate.

Is DroneShield a good stock to buy?

Whether DroneShield is 'good' depends on your objectives, time horizon, and risk tolerance. The bull case often centres on counter-UAS demand, the company’s pipeline, and expectations of further contract conversion, while the risks include lumpy revenue, procurement delays, competition from larger defence contractors, and the sensitivity of high-growth defence names to sentiment and governance developments. This article provides context, not a recommendation, and it’s worth considering independent research.

Could DroneShield stock go up or down?

Yes. DroneShield’s price can move in either direction, and recent history shows both sharp rallies and meaningful pullbacks. Company updates such as contract announcements, guidance changes, margins, and pipeline commentary can influence expectations, while sector factors like defence spending priorities may also affect sentiment. Technical levels can provide reference points, but they don’t predict outcomes. If you trade, consider how volatility and gaps around news could affect risk, especially with leveraged products.

Should I invest in DroneShield stock?

This article can’t tell you whether to invest. A practical way to approach the question is to define what would need to be true for your thesis to hold, then test it against the key variables in DroneShield’s story: contract conversion, procurement timing, competitive pressure, and ongoing R&D needs. It can also help to consider position sizing and downside planning, because defence stocks can react quickly to news flow and broader market sentiment.

Can I trade DroneShield (DRO) CFDs on Capital.com?

Yes, you can trade DroneShield CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.