Leonardo stock forecast: Q1 2026 earnings and guidance
Leonardo is an Italian defence and aerospace group whose Q1 2026 results showed higher orders, revenue growth and confirmed full-year guidance. Explore third-party LDO price targets and technical analysis. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO) is trading at €49.18 on Capital.com’s quote feed as of 12:55pm UTC on 13 May 2026, within an intraday range of €49.02–€50.76. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The retreat follows a broader reassessment of European defence equities, with Reuters noting that the MSCI Europe Defence index fell 9.2% in March amid profit-taking and valuation concerns as the sector cooled from its early-2026 highs (Reuters, 20 April 2026). Company-specific factors include Leonardo's Q1 2026 results, reported on 6 May 2026, which showed orders rising 31% year on year to €9bn and revenues rising 6.9% to €4.5bn, with 2026 guidance confirmed (Investing.com, 6 May 2026). Separately, the UK Ministry of Defence announced a £1bn contract award to Leonardo for 23 AW149 medium helicopters in early March 2026, securing production at the company's Yeovil facility (Reuters, 2 March 2026).
Leonardo outlook: Q1 orders rise as broker targets move higher
As of 13 May 2026, third-party Leonardo stock predictions reflect differing views on the government-mandated CEO transition, the strength of Q1 2026 results, and the longer-term path of European defence spending.
Morningstar (buy rating upgrade)
Morningstar raised its recommendation on Leonardo to buy from hold, while maintaining a fair value estimate of €62.60 per share. The stock had retreated from year-to-date highs, while the company's earnings delivery was narrowing the gap to Morningstar's valuation model. The upgrade cited structural defence spending tailwinds and improved visibility on cash conversion as key supports (MarketScreener, 28 April 2026).
Morgan Stanley (overweight, target raised)
Morgan Stanley raised its 12-month price target on Leonardo to €82 from €71, while maintaining its Overweight recommendation. The bank cited renewed confidence in the company's earnings growth trajectory, supported by sustained NATO-driven demand and improving order conversion across its defence electronics and helicopter segments (Tiger Brokers, 27 April 2026).
Equita (buy, post-Q1 reaction)
Equita noted that the government's decision to replace CEO Roberto Cingolani came as a surprise given Leonardo's recent execution record, and flagged in early April 2026 that the CEO change added near-term uncertainty to the investment case. Equita maintains a buy rating with a price target of €71, reflecting confidence in the underlying business despite the management transition (Investing.com, 7 April 2026).
Simply Wall St / consensus aggregation (post-Q1 2026 revision)
Following Q1 2026 results published on 6 May 2026, consensus aggregation data updated on 10 May 2026 showed analysts lifting Leonardo's consensus fair value estimate to €61.50 from €40.45. The revision reflected price target increases across several firms and updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, and forward P/E levels. It followed confirmation that Q1 2026 orders rose 31% year on year to €9bn, with 2026 full-year guidance maintained (Simply Wall St, 10 May 2026).
Leonardo IR / broad broker consensus (equity coverage page)
Leonardo's official equity coverage page, last updated 12 May 2026, aggregates 20 active broker targets and shows an average 12-month consensus price target of €67.85. Targets range from €56.70 at the low end (Agency Partners, buy) to €82 at the high end (Morgan Stanley, Overweight). More positive ratings include JP Morgan at €77 (Overweight), BofA Securities at €79.50 (buy), Bernstein at €75 (Outperform), and Kepler Cheuvreux at €75 (buy), while more cautious views include UBS at €60 (Neutral) and ODDO at €61 (Neutral) (Leonardo IR, 12 May 2026).
Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
LDO stock price: Technical overview
The LDO stock price trades at €49.18 as of 12:55pm UTC on 13 May 2026, below its main moving-average stack, based on technical indicators on TradingView. The 20/50/100/200-day SMAs sit at €53.97, €57.52, €56.32 and €52.90, while the price also trades beneath the Hull moving average at €49.83. Together, these indicators point to broad short-term downward alignment across the MA family.
Momentum indicators also sit in negative territory, according to TradingView data. The 14-day RSI reads 32.58, whilehe average directional index at 23 suggests the prevailing downtrend carries moderate, rather than established, directional conviction.
The classic pivot point at €55.79 is the initial overhead reference. A daily close back above that level would bring the R1 zone near €60.51 into view, with R2 at €68.01 as a further reference if upside momentum rebuilds. On the downside, the S1 classic pivot at €48.29 is the nearest support level below the current quote, while S2 at €43.57 marks the next notable reference if that level gave way (TradingView, 13 May 2026).
This technical analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.
Leonardo share price history (2024–2026)
According to Capital.com price data for LDO CFDs – which track LDO’s stock price – traded around €21–€24 through mid-2024, a period of relative stability as the broader European defence sector attracted early attention amid rising NATO commitments. The stock closed at €25.90 on 30 December 2024.
The share price started to move more sharply in early 2025. Shares were still around €26 in January, but momentum built through February and into March as European governments accelerated defence spending pledges following shifting US foreign policy under President Trump. LDO closed at €38.60 on 28 February 2025 and moved above €47 by late March. A sharp pullback followed in early April 2025, when the stock hit a low of €33.83 on 7 April amid broader market volatility linked to US tariff announcements, before recovering to close the year near €49.23 on 30 December 2025.
The rally extended into 2026. LDO climbed from €51.46 on 2 January to an intraday peak of €65.17 on 19 March, supported by Q1 2026 earnings strength and a confirmed £1bn UK MoD helicopter contract. The stock reached a two-year closing high of €63.03 on 1 April before a government-driven CEO transition weighed on sentiment, taking shares back towards current levels. Leonardo (LDO) closed at €49.12 on 13 May 2026 – approximately 0.2% higher year on year but 22.3% below its March 2026 highs.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Share prices are indicative and may differ from live market prices.
LDO earnings: Latest results and upcoming dates
Leonardo reported its Q1 2026 results on 6 May 2026, delivering a broadly positive set of numbers and confirming full-year guidance. Orders rose 31% year on year to €9bn, while revenues rose 6.9% to €4.5bn (Yahoo Finance, 6 May 2026). EBITA increased 29% to €411m, reflecting improving margins across the defence electronics and helicopter divisions, with management leaving 2026 guidance unchanged and pointing to continued order backlog conversion and disciplined cost execution through the remainder of the year (Investing.com, 6 May 2026).
The results landed alongside a notable governance development. On 8 May 2026, Leonardo confirmed the appointment of Lorenzo Mariani as the company's new chief executive, replacing Roberto Cingolani following a government-backed board reshuffle. The transition had already weighed on the share price in late April and early May, with the stock falling roughly 15% from its April highs in the run-up to and following the announcement (The Wall Street Journal, 8 May 2026).
Leonardo's next scheduled earnings event is the H1 2026 interim results, scheduled for 30 July 2026 according to the company's financial calendar (Investing.com, 13 May 2026).
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Earnings data is sourced from third-party reports and Leonardo's official investor relations communications.
Leonardo (LDO): Capital.com analyst view
Leonardo’s price performance over the past 18 months has coincided with a structural re-rating, alongside the expansion of European defence budgets and a strong operational delivery record. The shares more than doubled from around €21 in mid-2024 to a peak above €65 in mid-March 2026, as NATO member states accelerated procurement commitments and Leonardo secured major contracts, including a £1bn UK MoD helicopter award. However, that sensitivity to geopolitical spending cycles also presents a risk: any easing in European security tensions, or a slowdown in government procurement timelines, could weigh on the elevated order-book assumptions that currently underpin consensus targets.
A further consideration is the government-mandated CEO transition completed in May 2026. Some analysts view the management change as a headwind, adding near-term execution uncertainty at a critical point in the company’s strategic cycle. Others point to Q1 2026’s 31% order increase and confirmed full-year guidance as potential indicators of operational resilience despite the leadership change. Valuation is another consideration: with the stock trading around €49 and consensus targets clustered near €68–€70, the difference between the current price and analyst targets is notable, although such estimates are uncertain and may not be realised, particularly as a premium multiple relative to historical norms may leave limited room for earnings disappointment.
Capital.com’s client sentiment for Leonardo CFDs
As of 13 May 2026, Capital.com client positioning in Leonardo CFDs sits at 98.3% buyers versus 1.7% sellers, putting buyers ahead by 96.6 percentage points – a strongly one-sided skew towards long positions. This snapshot reflects open positions on Capital.com and can change.
Summary – Leonardo 2026
- Leonardo (LDO) trades at €49.18 as of 12:55pm UTC on 13 May 2026, down roughly 22% from its March 2026 peak near €65 but more than double its mid-2024 levels around €21.
- Key price drivers include sustained European defence budget expansion, Leonardo’s Q1 2026 order increase of 31% year on year, and a government-mandated CEO transition completed in early May 2026 that introduced near-term governance uncertainty.
- Recent news centres on Q1 2026 results confirming revenues of €4.5bn and EBITA of €411m, the appointment of Lorenzo Mariani as incoming CEO, and a Moody’s credit rating upgrade announced in late April 2026.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
FAQ
Who owns the most Leonardo stock?
Leonardo is a publicly listed company, but the Italian government remains its largest shareholder through the Ministry of Economy and Finance. This ownership structure means governance developments can be an important factor for investors to monitor, particularly when board or management changes occur. In 2026, Leonardo’s government-mandated CEO transition added near-term uncertainty to the investment case, even as analysts continued to point to its order backlog and defence-sector exposure as key factors behind their price targets.
What is the five-year Leonardo share price forecast?
Five-year LDO stock forecasts are highly uncertain, as they depend on factors including European defence budgets, contract execution, earnings growth, valuation multiples and broader market conditions. The article focuses on 12-month analyst targets, which ranged from €56.70 to €82 in the 22 April–13 May 2026 window. Longer-term forecasts may change as new earnings, order intake, guidance updates and geopolitical developments reshape expectations. Forecasts are not guaranteed and can be wrong.
Is Leonardo a good stock to buy?
Whether Leonardo is a good stock to buy depends on an investor’s objectives, risk tolerance and view of the defence sector. Analysts cited in the article highlighted potential supports including rising orders, confirmed 2026 guidance and European defence spending. However, risks remain, including valuation sensitivity, possible delays in government procurement, geopolitical changes and uncertainty around the CEO transition. This article is for information only and should not be treated as a recommendation to buy or sell Leonardo stock.
Could Leonardo stock go up or down?
Leonardo stock could move in either direction. It may rise if the company continues converting its order backlog into revenue, maintains guidance and benefits from sustained defence spending. It could fall if earnings disappoint, procurement timelines slow, valuation concerns increase or governance uncertainty affects investor confidence. Technical indicators in the article also showed short-term downward alignment, with the price trading below key moving averages. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Should I invest in Leonardo stock?
The decision to invest in Leonardo stock should be based on independent research, personal financial circumstances and, where appropriate, professional advice. Leonardo’s recent performance has been shaped by defence-sector demand, order growth, major contracts and management changes. These factors may appeal to some investors, while others may focus on governance risk, valuation, sector concentration or the cyclicality of government spending. Capital.com does not provide investment advice or personal recommendations.
Can I trade Leonardo CFDs on Capital.com?
Yes, you can trade Leonardo CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.