Nvidia stock forecast: H200 China chip clearance

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is trading at $227.49 as of 10:52am UTC on 18 May 2026, according to Capital.com’s quote feed, with an intraday range of $224.91–$237.66. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Several developments have coincided with recent price movements. The US cleared approximately 10 Chinese firms, including Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance, to purchase NVIDIA's H200 AI chips under licensing terms permitting up to 75,000 units per customer, although Reuters reported that no deliveries had been completed as of 14 May (The Business Times, 14 May 2026). Investor attention is also focused on NVIDIA's first-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings, scheduled for 20 May 2026, with the company's Q4 FY26 results having previously recorded revenue of $39.3bn, up 78% year-on-year (NVIDIA Investor Relations, 25 February 2026). The broader technology sector provided additional support, with the S&P 500 Information Technology sector gaining on 14 May amid ongoing AI infrastructure spending themes (Investopedia, 14 May 2026).

H200 approval reframes third-party NVIDIA targets

As of 18 May 2026, third-party Nvidia stock predictions include generally constructive analyst views, centred on AI infrastructure demand, improving US–China chip export conditions, and NVIDIA's first-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings event scheduled for 20 May 2026. The following targets summarise selected third-party views published within that window.

Susquehanna (positive rating, target raised)

Susquehanna raised its NVDA price target to $275 from $250, maintaining a positive rating. The firm cited sustained AI chip demand as the basis for the higher multiple, which equates to approximately 30.5 times calendar 2026 estimated earnings ahead of the 20 May earnings release (Investing.com, 12 May 2026).

UBS (buy, target lifted ahead of earnings)

UBS raised its NVDA price target to $275 from $245, retaining a buy rating. Analyst Timothy Arcuri cited a favourable risk/reward profile ahead of the quarterly earnings report, with the revised target implying approximately 21.8% upside from the prior close at the time of publication (MarketBeat, 14 May 2026).

Bank of America (buy, AI data-centre TAM revision)

Bank of America lifted its NVDA price target to $320 from $300, keeping a buy rating. The bank revised its total addressable market estimate for AI data-centre systems in 2030 to approximately $1.7tn from $1.4tn, citing faster-than-expected AI infrastructure spending growth as the primary driver of the higher target (Yahoo Finance, 13 May 2026).

Cantor Fitzgerald (overweight, higher-end target)

Cantor Fitzgerald raised its NVDA price target to $350 from $300 ahead of the 20 May earnings release, maintaining an overweight rating. The firm placed the revised target among the higher estimates on the Street, alongside Tigress Financial at $360, reflecting its view that AI spending could remain durable as NVIDIA ramps up its Blackwell-generation chips (MarketBeat, 14 May 2026).

MarketBeat (Wall Street consensus, 54 analysts)

MarketBeat's compiled consensus across 54 Wall Street analysts places the average 12-month NVDA price target at $276.56, within a range of $205–$360. Of the 54 analysts surveyed, 48 carry a buy rating, four a strong buy, and two a hold, with the average target implying approximately 22.7% upside from the 15 May closing price of $225.32 (MarketBeat, 16 May 2026).

Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

NVIDIA earnings: Q1 fiscal year 2027 preview

NVIDIA is scheduled to report first-quarter fiscal year 2027 financial results, covering the three months ended 27 April 2026, after the US market close on 20 May 2026. The company's most recent prior quarter, Q4 fiscal year 2026, recorded revenue of $39.3bn, up 78% year-on-year, with data centre revenue of $35.6bn representing the segment's single largest quarterly contribution on record at the time of reporting (NVIDIA Investor Relations, 25 February 2026).

Heading into the 20 May release, Wall Street consensus places Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings per share at approximately $1.76, according to aggregated analyst estimates cited as of 17 May 2026. Multiple brokers, including Bank of America and UBS, raised their price targets in the days immediately preceding the report, with Bank of America referencing a $1.7tn total addressable market estimate for AI data-centre systems by 2030 as a key forward assumption underpinning its $320 target (Yahoo Finance, 13 May 2026).

The earnings event follows the US government's clearance of H200 chip sales to approximately 10 Chinese firms, including Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, JD.com, Lenovo, and Foxconn, under licensing terms permitting up to 75,000 units per customer, though no deliveries had been made as of 14 May 2026 (The Next Web, 14 May 2026). Investor focus ahead of the call is centred on Blackwell-generation GPU shipment volumes, the data centre revenue trajectory, and any guidance commentary relating to export licensing conditions in the China market (The Business Times, 14 May 2026).

NVDA stock price: Technical overview

The NVDA stock price trades at $227.49 as of 10:52am UTC on 18 May 2026, sitting above its daily simple moving average cluster, with the 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs at approximately $210, $193, $190 and $186, respectively. The 20-over-50 alignment remains intact across both the SMA and EMA families, keeping the near-term trend positive by these measures. The Hull moving average (9) at $233.34 runs above the current price, suggesting the very short-term momentum ribbon has moved ahead of spot.

Momentum indicators from TradingView lean positive without reaching extreme territory. The 14-day relative strength index sits at 64.66, in elevated but not overbought territory, while the average directional index at 31.15 may indicate more directional conditions, rather than a range-bound environment.

On the topside, the classic R1 pivot at $220.47 has already been cleared, with R2 at $241.38 which some traders may choose to monitor if the stock sustains a daily close above current levels. The intraday session high of $237.66 sits within that zone.

On pullbacks, the classic pivot point at $195.92 represents initial chart support, with the 100-day SMA near $189.60 and the 200-day SMA near $185.97 forming a broader moving-average shelf below (TradingView, 18 May 2026).

This is technical analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.

Nvidia share price history (2024–2026)

NVDA’s stock price opened May 2024 trading around $95, as AI infrastructure demand continued to support investor interest in semiconductor stocks after the share price had risen sharply from the low $40s in 2023.

The stock climbed steadily through mid-2024, touching a high of $140.69 on 20 June 2024 before pulling back to the low $100s by early August amid a broader tech sell-off. It recovered through the autumn, briefly reclaiming the $150s in January 2025, then fell sharply on 27 January 2025 to a low of $116.76 as the emergence of Chinese AI model DeepSeek weighed on sentiment towards AI chip demand.

NVDA spent much of early 2025 consolidating in the $105–$140 range, before a more severe leg lower in April 2025 dragged the stock to an intraday low of $86.13 on 7 April, coinciding with a period of tariff-related market volatility. A recovery followed, with the stock reclaiming $136 by late May 2025 and pushing towards the $190s by November 2025 before fading into year-end, closing 2025 at $186.63.

In 2026, NVDA tested the $163–$165 area in early May before rebounding towards the $230s. The stock traded at $227.49 on 18 May 2026.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Share prices are indicative and may differ from live market prices.

Nvidia (NVDA): Capital.com analyst view

NVDA’s price trajectory over the past two years reflects the broader market’s evolving relationship with AI infrastructure investment. The stock increased from around $95 in May 2024 to $227.49 as of 18 May 2026, supported by consistent revenue growth in NVIDIA’s data centre segment and expanding adoption of GPU-based computing across cloud providers and enterprise customers. That said, the move has not been linear. Sharp drawdowns in August 2024, January 2025, and April 2025 show that sentiment around AI spending can remain sensitive to macro shocks, competitive developments, and trade policy headlines.

Looking ahead to the 20 May 2026 earnings release, the key tension is between expectations of continued data centre momentum and the risk that guidance disappoints a market pricing in substantial near-term growth. The US government’s partial relaxation of H200 export restrictions to select Chinese firms could expand NVIDIA’s addressable market, although it also introduces regulatory uncertainty that could reverse quickly. Broader macro conditions, including tariff policy and interest rate direction, add further variables that could move the stock in either direction, regardless of company-specific fundamentals.

Capital.com’s client sentiment for Nvidia CFDs

As of 18 May 2026, Capital.com client positioning in NVIDIA CFDs shows 89.9% buyers vs 10.1% sellers, putting buyers ahead by 79.8 percentage points. This snapshot reflects open positions on Capital.com at the time of capture and can change rapidly as market conditions evolve.

Summary – Nvidia 2026

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.