US 500 index forecast: Third-party US 500 price target

Discover the US 500 (US 500) index price forecast for 2025 and beyond, with analyst price targets and more.

By Dan Mitchell13:26 (UTC), 5 September 2025 Updated

The S&P 500 — Photo: Funtap / Shutterstock

The US 500 index hit a fresh all-time high in August 2025, climbing above 6,480 as momentum in tech stocks and expectations of rate cuts fuelled buying pressure.

As market conditions evolve, the US 500 remains in sharp focus for traders and analysts – in this article, we examine third-party US 500 index price forecasts for 2025 and beyond.

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Current US 500 price and market position

The US 500 – often referred to by brokers as US 500, and formally the S&P 500 – is a widely recognised benchmark for large-cap US equities, covering 500 leading companies across sectors including technology, finance, healthcare, and consumer goods. Launched in 1957, it has become one of the most closely tracked measures of US stock market performance, representing roughly 75-80% of total US equity market capitalisation.

The index serves as a reference point for both institutional and retail investors, underpinning a broad range of products such as index funds, futures and options. Its wide sector coverage means the US 500 is used as a gauge of stock market conditions and investor sentiment, with movements frequently driven by corporate earnings, monetary policy, and global economic developments.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

US 500 index price history

The US 500 closed on 28 August 2025 at 6,481.40, trading close to its record high. This represents a gain of around 10% since the start of the year, when the index opened at 5,903.26. Compared with the same point in 2024, when it stood at 5,625.80, the benchmark has risen by roughly 15%.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results

US 500 index forecast for 2025 and beyond

As of 28 August 2025, analysts projected a mixed outlook for the US 500. Trading Economics expected the index to finish the quarter at 6,380.90 before easing to 6,129.99 over the following 12 months.

Consensus US 500 targets

JP Morgan Research anticipated the US 500 would close the year near 6,000, supported by double-digit earnings growth. Looking ahead, the bank forecast earnings per share of 290 USD in 2026, representing a 12% year-on-year increase.

Technical analysis snapshot

TradingView’s monthly technical summary indicated continued upward momentum. Of 26 indicators reviewed, 18 signalled ‘buy’ and eight were neutral, resulting in an overall ‘strong buy’ reading for the index.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Analyst projections may be inaccurate, rely on historical data, and should not replace independent research. Always conduct thorough due diligence before trading, and never trade with more than you can afford to lose.

US 500 index price predictions: Analyst outlook

As of late August 2025, analysts issued a wide range of US 500 targets, reflecting differing views on earnings growth, monetary policy and trade developments.

Goldman Sachs Research projected the index would reach 6,600 within six months and 6,900 in a year, citing earlier-than-expected rate cuts and resilience in large-cap stocks.
Citigroup raised its year-end forecast to 6,600 from 6,300, marking its second upward revision in two months.
UBS Global Research set a year-end target of 6,100, up from 5,500, though this still suggested limited downside from recent levels.
Trading Economics expected the benchmark to end the quarter near 6,380 before easing to about 6,130 over the following 12 months.

Goldman Sachs noted that falling bond yields could support valuations, estimating that every 50 basis-point decline in real yields adds around 3% to the index’s forward price-to-earnings ratio. The bank added that while leadership remains concentrated in a handful of mega-cap firms, the potential for policy easing and steady earnings growth into 2026 could broaden market participation.

Barchart observed that Nvidia’s performance remains a key factor, with its 8% weighting in the index giving it notable influence. Optimism around tech earnings and expectations of Fed rate cuts in September contributed to the US 500 reaching new highs late in the month.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Analyst projections are based on current data and assumptions and may not reflect future market conditions.

What could influence the US 500's index price?

The US 500 is a capitalisation-weighted index that reflects a mix of economic, corporate, and market-driven factors. Each of these can shape its movement depending on prevailing conditions.

Economic indicators

US GDP growth, employment data, and inflation trends can influence expectations for the broader market. Stronger growth and low unemployment may support confidence, while persistent inflation or weaker output could weigh on the US 500.

Corporate earnings

Quarterly results from companies in the index matter, with larger or heavily weighted firms often exerting the greatest influence. Better-than-expected earnings may lift sentiment, while broad-based disappointments can lead to declines.

Federal Reserve policy

Interest rate decisions and monetary policy shifts affect market conditions. Changes in rates and balance sheet policy influence valuations through financing costs, bond yields and discount rates. Easing typically supports equity prices, while tightening may create pressure.

Influence of mega-cap stocks

Companies such as Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia carry significant weight in the index. Gains in these firms can lift the overall benchmark, while weakness in their share prices may have the opposite effect.

Global events

Geopolitical tensions, trade disputes or changes in commodity supply chains can alter investor sentiment. Uncertainty may reduce risk appetite, while signs of stability or resolution can improve confidence.

Commodity and inflation

Oil and other input costs affect corporate margins and inflation expectations. Rising prices may compress profitability in some sectors while benefiting resource-related firms. Stable or moderate inflation can support perceptions of economic health.

Market sentiment and technicals

Short-term movements in the US 500 can be shaped by investor positioning, momentum, and technical factors. Shifts in sentiment or breaks through support and resistance levels often contribute to volatility in either direction.

When you trade the US 500 index with us, you’re using contracts for difference (CFDs). CFDs are derivative instruments that let you trade on price movements in either direction without requiring ownership of the underlying asset. They are traded on margin, meaning leverage above 1:1 can amplify both gains and losses, which makes leveraged trading inherently risky.

Trade US 500 index CFDs with Capital.com.

US 500 index trading strategies to consider

Trading US 500 CFDs offers several approaches, depending on market outlook and preferred holding periods. While strategies differ in scope, applying basic risk management and using platform tools – such as stop-loss* and take-profit orders – can help manage risk when trading index CFDs.

Here are some common US 500 trading strategies:

Day trading: focuses on intraday price moves, often in response to economic data, Federal Reserve commentary, or technical signals.
Swing trading: aims to capture medium-term momentum, with positions held for several days to reflect changes in sentiment or earnings updates.
Trend trading: follows the prevailing direction of the index, using indicators and longer-term charts to identify confirmation signals.
Position trading: takes a broader view, holding positions for weeks or months in line with macroeconomic or monetary policy themes.

*Please note that stop-loss orders aren’t guaranteed. Guaranteed stop-loss orders (GSLOs) incur a fee if triggered.

Discover more approaches on our CFD trading strategies page.

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FAQ

Where can I gain exposure to the US 500 index?

You can’t invest directly in the US 500 index, as it is a benchmark rather than a tradeable asset. However, exposure is possible through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), futures contracts or mutual funds that track the index. Alternatively, you can trade CFDs on the US 500 with a regulated broker – such as Capital.com – allowing you to take positions on price movements without owning the underlying equities.

Is the US 500 a good index?

The US 500 is one of the most widely followed indices, reflecting the performance of large-cap US companies across multiple sectors. Its suitability depends on individual objectives and risk tolerance. Traders may assess factors such as earnings growth, interest rate expectations, and global sentiment when considering whether to gain exposure.

Could the US 500 rise or fall?

The US 500 may rise with sustained earnings growth, monetary policy easing or continued strength in technology and other mega-cap stocks. Conversely, higher-for-longer interest rates, weaker corporate results or global uncertainties could weigh on valuations. The index’s performance will depend on how these factors develop.

Should I trade or invest in the US 500?

Trading US 500 CFDs offers flexibility to act on short-term moves in either direction, suited to strategies such as day or swing trading. This carries increased risk due to leverage, which may not be suitable for everyone. Investing via ETFs or funds provides long-term exposure to the index’s diversified group of companies. The decision depends on whether the focus is short-term trading opportunities or broader, long-term exposure, alongside risk tolerance and experience.