Iron ore price forecast: Third-party predictions 2025-2030

With prices shaped by shifts in global demand, evolving supply chains, broader market sentiment, and policy developments in key producer countries – iron ore has gained renewed attention among traders and market analysts in recent years.

As traders and investors look ahead, what are the latest iron ore price forecasts for 2025 and beyond? In this guide, we review third-party iron ore price predictions, long-term analyst targets, and key trends shaping the outlook.

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Introduction

Iron ore is the world’s main source of iron for steelmaking, supporting construction, manufacturing and infrastructure globally. It is mined primarily in Australia and Brazil, with significant production in China and India. Iron ore’s price movements often reflect broader industrial trends and changes in global trade.

Iron ore prices are influenced by shifts in Chinese steel demand, supply chain developments, and environmental policies. In recent years, the market has experienced increased fluctuations due to decarbonisation efforts, the introduction of additional mining capacity and evolving trade flows.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Iron ore price forecast for 2025 and beyond

As of 22 August 2025, third-party iron ore price forecasts indicated a softer outlook for the year ahead.

• Scotiabank expected iron ore to average $95 per tonne in 2025, marking a 13.6% fall from the 2024 average, with prices projected to move lower to $90 in 2026..

• ING Think forecast an average of $100 per tonne for 2025, falling to $95 in 2026.

• The World Bank projected a similar trajectory, with iron ore forecast to average $95 in 2025 and declining further to $88 in 2026.

Consensus among these institutions suggested that iron ore prices could face further downward pressure over the following 12-18 months, driven by expectations of subdued Chinese steel demand and the gradual easing of supply constraints. 

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

What are analysts’ iron ore price expectations?

Analysts’ iron ore price expectations remained cautious as of August 2025. S&P Global Market Intelligence anticipated that iron ore prices would average $97.20 per dry metric ton in 2025, gradually declining to $80.00/dmt by 2029. The agency pointed to a projected surplus in global seaborne supply as new capacity from projects such as Guinea’s Simandou came online. However, S&P also noted the potential for prices to recover to $95.00/dmt by 2035, as tightening supply and rising demand for higher-quality ore balanced the market.

In its latest industry trends report, Deloitte highlighted the changing landscape for iron ore and other metals. Deloitte’s analysts stated: ‘The mining sector continues to see increasing shifts in focus from traditional products, like iron ore, to newer ones, such as critical minerals. Various countries are offering a range of industry incentives to address critical mineral supply chain security and make the metal ecosystem less vulnerable to risk and disruption.’

Both agencies cited risks to the outlook. S&P highlighted the impact of volatility in Chinese steel production and import patterns, as well as the effect of rising supply from Australia and Brazil. Deloitte pointed to decarbonisation trends, noting that premiums for high-grade iron ore are likely to increase over time as the steel industry transitions towards lower-carbon production.

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What influences iron ore prices?

The iron ore price responds to a combination of demand, supply, and wider market dynamics. Each factor can move the price in either direction, depending on prevailing conditions.

Global steel demand

Iron ore’s main use is in steelmaking, so changes in steel output and consumption are the primary driver. A rise in infrastructure investment or manufacturing – especially in China, with India’s role gradually increasing – can boost demand for steel, lifting iron ore prices. Conversely, a slowdown in construction or recessionary trends tends to weaken steel production, putting downward pressure on prices.

Supply dynamics and disruptions

Unexpected disruptions at mines or along shipping routes can affect the iron ore price in the short term. Cyclones in Australia, outages in Brazil, or strikes at major producers often tighten supply and support higher prices. As supply chains normalise or new mining projects begin production, additional volumes can weigh on prices.

Chinese policy and consumption

China accounts for the largest share of global iron ore demand, so its domestic policy decisions are closely watched. Support for new infrastructure or relaxed credit conditions may increase iron ore imports and prices. By contrast, steel output caps, stricter environmental rules, or efforts to raise scrap‑based production could reduce demand, though the impact of recycling remains limited compared with ore‑based output.

Financial market activity

Iron ore is also traded via futures and other financial instruments. Speculative flows, investor sentiment, and changes in margin requirements can add volatility. Increased speculation or bullish sentiment may contribute to short‑term price movements beyond underlying supply‑demand factors, while bearish positioning may accelerate declines.

Freight costs and logistics

Transport is a key part of the delivered cost of iron ore to consumers. Increases in shipping costs, fuel prices or logistical bottlenecks can make delivered ore more expensive, supporting prices in importing regions. Improved shipping efficiency or lower freight costs can reduce this pressure.

Geopolitical events

Political developments – including trade disputes, tariffs or sanctions – can influence both supply and demand. Disruptions or uncertainty in major producer or consumer markets may influence volatility, while improved international relations can support more stable conditions.

Currency fluctuations

Iron ore is traded globally, with pricing often in US dollars. Moves in major producer currencies – such as the Australian dollar or Brazilian real – can affect producer margins and export incentives, indirectly influencing supply and pricing trends. A weaker producer currency may lower local costs but can also encourage exports.

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Iron ore commodity trading strategies to consider

Trading iron ore CFDs offers different approaches, depending on your market view and experience. While each strategy has its own focus, applying risk management and using platform tools – such as stop-loss and take-profit orders – can help limit exposure when trading iron ore price movements.*

Here are some common iron ore trading strategies:

• Day trading: day traders target short-term price moves within a single session, often responding to news, data or technical signals.

• Swing trading: swing traders look to capture price swings over several days, using momentum and shifts in sentiment.

• Trend trading: trend traders follow the broader iron ore price direction, using technical indicators and longer-term charts.

• Position trading: position traders take a long-term perspective, holding trades for weeks or months to benefit from wider market moves.

*Please note that stop-loss orders aren’t guaranteed. A guaranteed stop-loss incurs a fee if triggered.

How to trade iron ore

You can trade iron ore directly through a commodity exchange, such as the Singapore Exchange (SGX) or the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) – or via derivatives – such as contracts for difference (CFDs). 

CFDs let you speculate on whether iron ore’s price will rise or fall without owning the underlying commodity. CFDs are traded on margin, and leverage above 1:1 increases both potential losses and gains.

Alternatively, you can participate in the iron ore market by trading share CFDs on companies involved in the sector, including those focused on production, raw materials, or distribution of iron ore and related products.

Trade iron ore CFDs with Capital.com.

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