Tesla stock forecast: third-party Tesla (TSLA) price target

Tesla remains one of the most closely watched – and hotly debated — stocks on the market. As investors weigh its disruptive potential against ongoing execution risks, analyst price targets for TSLA offer a snapshot of sentiment across Wall Street.

In this piece, we examine Tesla stock price forecasts for 2025 and beyond, highlighting key third-party analyst targets and the drivers behind them, from robotaxi rollouts to margin pressures and macro uncertainty.

Tesla (TSLA) stock forecast for 2025 and beyond

As of June 2025, the Tesla stock forecast for 2025 reflected a mixed outlook among analysts. The stock traded around $322, while the average 12-month target from analysts was approximately $293.67, implying modest downside. Morningstar placed Tesla’s fair value estimate at $250, assigning it a 3-star rating and citing concerns over margin pressure and lower delivery expectations compared to 2024.

Bearish sentiment persisted among some firms. UBS continued to rate the stock a ‘Sell’, assigning a $215 target as of 23 June. Analyst Joseph Spak argued that Tesla’s valuation remained stretched and driven more by momentum than fundamentals, especially given recent delivery and margin concerns.

Longer-term optimism remains strong among some speculative investors. Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest maintained a multi-year bull case with a 2030 target exceeding $2,000, premised on Tesla’s potential transformation into a dominant autonomous mobility platform. Still, this outlook is far from consensus.

Overall, analyst sentiment remained mixed. Of the 40+ analysts covering the stock, around 14 rate Tesla a ‘Buy’, 12 a ‘Hold’, and the remainder a ‘Sell’, highlighting a divide between innovation-led optimism and concerns over valuation and execution.

Forecasting platforms also reflect this split. CoinCodex expected a moderate short-term rally, projecting Tesla to reach a potential high of $370 by September. Looking further ahead, Gov Capital maintained a bullish five-year outlook, forecasting the stock could move above $740 by the end of 2029, with high-end scenarios for June 2030 exceeding $1,000.

Tesla stock predictions: analysts’ price target view

Tesla stock predictions and analyst views are varied. As of June 2025, the average 12-month price target sat at $293.67, with a median of $286.14, both implying modest downside from current levels near $322. The wide range of forecasts reflects deep uncertainty over valuation, growth potential, and strategic direction.

At the bullish end, Dan Ives of Wedbush maintained an ‘Outperform’ rating and raised his target to $500-$550, citing Tesla’s robotaxi rollout and AI advancements as the start of a new growth cycle. He argued these shifts could eventually make Tesla a trillion-dollar tech platform.

In contrast, UBS analyst Joseph Spak, in line with the bearish $215 target, warned that current valuations are fuelled more by hype than earnings, especially given recent delivery shortfalls and margin pressure.

Among long-term optimists, ARK Invest’s bullish projection is betting on Tesla’s dominance in autonomous ride-hailing and its expansion into software, energy, and AI.

According to MarketBeat, 42 analysts have provided ratings: 20 recommend 'Buy', 13 suggest 'Hold', and 9 advise 'Sell'. The price targets among these analysts range from a low of $19.05 to a high of $500.00, with an average target of $298.37. 

Analyst forecasts are not guarantees of future performance. Stock price predictions may change and should not be relied on as financial advice. Always do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making trading decisions.

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Tesla (TSLA) stock price drivers 

Here are some of the Tesla (TSLA) stock price drivers that could impact traders in the coming years, according to market analysts.

Elon Musk’s political profile and fiscal fallout

Elon Musk’s earlier alignment with Donald Trump had raised hopes for pro-Tesla policies. But that shifted in early 2025 when Musk publicly opposed the administration’s multi-trillion-dollar ‘Big Beautiful Bill’, calling it fiscally reckless.

The fallout triggered a public rift between Musk and Trump, with former allies criticising Musk’s stance. Analysts now warn that Tesla faces increased policy risk, where political support was once a tailwind.

Robotaxi rollout and AI strategy

Tesla launched its first supervised robotaxi service in Austin in June 2025 – a milestone toward Level 4 autonomy. It also plans to release FSD Hardware 5 in 2026, with Musk promising a tenfold performance boost.

However, some analysts remain sceptical. Barclays and Wells Fargo have questioned the commercial impact and valuation, citing limited regulatory clarity and unproven earnings contribution.

Rising competition in China and abroad

Q1 2025 deliveries fell 13% year-on-year, with China leading the decline. UBS noted that local rivals like BYD and Xiaomi are undercutting Tesla on price, weakening its share and pricing power.

Jefferies flagged similar concerns, while Morgan Stanley saw long-term potential in markets like India – though not yet a short-term catalyst.

Innovation, execution and operational performance

Tesla’s premium valuation relies on innovation, but execution risks remain. Cybertruck delays and weak Q1 2025 earnings – down over 50% year-on-year – raised concerns.

Jefferies cautioned that ventures into energy and robotics lack capital return clarity, while Wells Fargo cited margin pressure and demand softness. Investors are now watching for efficiency gains, refreshed models, and progress on Tesla’s next-gen platform.

Want to learn more about Tesla stock price drivers?

Check out our comprehensive trader’s guide to Tesla for additional factors which could influence Tesla’s stock price and more.

What is the Tesla stock price history?

The Tesla stock price history shows its remarkable volatility and growth since its 2010 IPO. Here’s an overview of Tesla’s price journey.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

IPO and early years (2010-2012)

Tesla went public on 29 June 2010, pricing its IPO at $17 per share and closing its first trading day at $23.89. However, early trading was turbulent, with the price dropping to an all-time low closing price of $1.05* on 7 July 2010. Market sentiment remained cautious until Tesla’s first profitable quarter in 2013.

Growth period (2013-2019)

In April 2013, Tesla rallied after posting its first quarterly profit. By September 2013, shares reached $12.89*, marking a turning point. However, the stock faced setbacks due to incidents like Model S fire reports and production challenges, reflecting the growing pains of a disruptive automaker. Tesla stock began gaining momentum in 2019, fueled by increasing EV adoption and successful product launches like the Model 3.

Pandemic era (2020)

Tesla’s growth accelerated during the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite global economic challenges, the company’s shares surged as it became the world’s most valuable automaker by market capitalisation in June 2020, surpassing Toyota. In December, Tesla was added to the US 500, further boosting investor confidence. Shares closed the year at an impressive $235.22*.

Peak and volatility (2021-2022)

Tesla continued to grow, reaching an all-time high of $409.47* in November 2021. This was driven by strong delivery numbers and increased global demand for EVs. However, the stock experienced volatility due to concerns over production delays and chip shortages, closing the year slightly lower.

While Tesla reported record vehicle deliveries and revenue growth, its stock price declined in 2022, ending the year 65% down. The 3-for-1 stock split in August and Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter (now X) contributed to trader concerns, while rising interest rates and persistent inflationary pressures weighed heavily on the broader market, affecting Tesla’s valuation.

Recent years (2023-2025)

Over the period 2023-2025, the Tesla stock price saw sharp fluctuations as investor sentiment swung between optimism and concern.

In 2023, shares surged over 150% in the first half, driven by excitement around Tesla’s autonomous driving ambitions. But momentum faded after weaker-than-expected delivery numbers and a recall of nearly 200,000 vehicles. The stock ended the year lower amid falling automotive sales and ongoing chip shortages.

2024 brought further volatility, with TSLA ranging between $138.80 and $342.03. Q1 profits fell by over 50% year-on-year, and earnings missed expectations. Elon Musk’s growing political visibility – especially following his advisory role in the Trump campaign – added a new layer of uncertainty to Tesla’s outlook.

By 2025, analysts remained divided. Some flagged execution risks and capital-intensive bets in energy and robotics, while others pointed to the potential of Tesla’s AI and robotaxi initiatives. Share price forecasts ranged widely, reflecting a market still unsure whether Tesla is primarily an automaker or a future-facing tech platform.

^{*All stock prices mentioned are adjusted for splits and dividends.}

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Share trading strategies to consider

Here are some share trading strategies to consider. Whether you trade Tesla or any other shares – choose a strategy aligned with your risk tolerance, time commitment and market knowledge.

Trend trading strategy

Trend traders analyse price movements over a specific period, identifying trends with technical analysis tools like moving averages, relative strength index (RSI) and chart patterns to gauge trends.

• Bullish example – traders may look for an upward trend characterised by higher highs and higher lows and go long on Tesla when the price breaks above a resistance level.

• Bearish example – traders could identify a downward trend with lower highs and lower lows and decide to short Tesla shares when the price breaks below a support level.

Trend trading aims to leverage prolonged price movements, enabling traders to align with the prevailing market direction while managing entry and exit points effectively.

Day trading strategy

Day traders execute multiple trades in a single trading session, lasting one day or shorter, aiming to profit from intraday price volatility.

• Bullish example – traders might buy Tesla shares during an intraday breakout above a key resistance level, closing the position before the session ends.

• Bearish example – traders may short Tesla shares during an intraday breakdown below a support level, profiting from quick price drops.

Day trading seeks to exploit Tesla’s intraday price movements by taking advantage of short-term volatility and executing trades, using technical analysis to identify potential support and resistance levels.

Position trading strategy

Position traders focus on broader market trends and fundamentals instead of short-term price movements, often holding positions for months up to a year.

• Bullish example – traders could open a long CFD position on the price of Tesla based on long-term growth drivers, such as innovation in autonomous vehicles.

• Bearish example – traders might open a short CFD position on the price of Tesla based on long-term challenges, such as increased competition or regulatory hurdles.

Position trading aims to profit from significant price changes over time, potentially making it suitable for traders who are aligned with Tesla’s macro trends and potential long-term value shifts.

Swing trading strategy

Swing traders hold positions over a period of days to weeks, aiming to profit from short- to medium-term price fluctuations.

• Bullish example – after a price dip to a support level, swing traders might open a long position on Tesla, expecting the share price to bounce and continue rising.

• Bearish example – if the Tesla price drops to a resistance level, a trader might open a short position on Tesla, anticipating a reversal and price drop.

Swing trading seeks to benefit from market ‘swings’ by identifying price patterns and timing trades accordingly, often involving both technical and fundamental analysis.

Want to learn more about trading strategies?

Read our comprehensive guides to trading strategies for lots of examples and ideas.

What are the Tesla stock risks and rewards?

The Tesla stock risks and rewards present unique opportunities and challenges for traders, including:

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