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Crude prices extend tumble as demand fears loom ahead of next OPEC+ meeting

By Kyle Rodda

13:07, 17 November 2023

Crude has extended its sell-off as demand risks loom ahead of OPEC+’s meeting on November 26. We look at the drivers of oil prices and the key technical levels of WTI Crude.

Oil prices extend plunge on softer demand outlook

Crude prices are being driven by fears about weakening demand as evidence of slowing global growth emerges. Recent data out of the US has surprised to the downside, while bearishness towards China’s growth also persists. Despite this, OPEC revised higher its projections for demand next year in its November Monthly Oil Market Report, mostly due to an upward revision of Chinese activity. OPEC continues to restrict output in order to stabilise prices, with the cartel meeting on the 26th of November to decide whether production needs to be curbed further.

(Source: OPEC)

Futures curve slips into contango on risk of oversupply

The markets are pricing in a short-term oversupply of crude, according to the futures curve. Front-month spreads slipped into contango last week in a dynamic that reflects an environment where supply outstrips demand. 

(Source: Bloomberg)

Past Performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
 

Silver

28.85 Price
-0.970% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0199%
Short position overnight fee 0.0117%
Overnight fee time 21:00 (UTC)
Spread 0.020

Oil - Crude

78.40 Price
+0.120% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee 0.0368%
Short position overnight fee -0.0587%
Overnight fee time 21:00 (UTC)
Spread 0.030

Oil - Brent

81.72 Price
+0.180% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee 0.0252%
Short position overnight fee -0.0471%
Overnight fee time 21:00 (UTC)
Spread 0.032

Gold

2,398.15 Price
+0.060% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0196%
Short position overnight fee 0.0114%
Overnight fee time 21:00 (UTC)
Spread 0.30

US inventories build as supply tightness eases

Following months of larger-than-expected drawdowns, US crude inventories have risen recently as demand moderates and supply replenishes. Two weeks of inventory data were released by the US Energy Information Administration this week, revealing a greater-than-forecast 13.9 million barrels and a 3.6 million barrels increase in the past fortnight. The data allayed concerns about tightness in the US energy market, with crude prices softening after the figures were published.

(Source: Investing.com)

Past Performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Crude prices break to fresh lows

WTI prices have broken through a key support zone to trade at a four-and-a-half-month low. Prices are trading at approximate levels that OPEC+ announced output cuts in the past. The daily RSI has retested oversold territory, although the indicator has not yet made a fresh low. The previous support zone between 72.70 and 73.70 could act as future resistance.  

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results

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The difference between trading assets and CFDs
The main difference between CFD trading and trading assets, such as commodities and stocks, is that you don’t own the underlying asset when you trade on a CFD.
You can still benefit if the market moves in your favour, or make a loss if it moves against you. However, with traditional trading you enter a contract to exchange the legal ownership of the individual shares or the commodities for money, and you own this until you sell it again.
CFDs are leveraged products, which means that you only need to deposit a percentage of the full value of the CFD trade in order to open a position. But with traditional trading, you buy the assets for the full amount. In the UK, there is no stamp duty on CFD trading, but there is when you buy stocks, for example.
CFDs attract overnight costs to hold the trades (unless you use 1-1 leverage), which makes them more suited to short-term trading opportunities. Stocks and commodities are more normally bought and held for longer. You might also pay a broker commission or fees when buying and selling assets direct and you’d need somewhere to store them safely.
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