Higher-than-expected monthly CPI data watered down expectations for RBA interest rate cuts in 2024; the markets will now shift attention to quarterly GDP data on Wednesday, June 5.
The markets continue to look for signals of disinflation in the United States. The latest PCE Index data, the US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, is released on May 31, 2024.
The EURGBP is driven by the question: which cuts first, the ECB or the BOE? Currently, swaps markets (chart below) imply that it will be the ECB (blue line).
China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) is underway, and the markets have so far been disappointed by what’s been delivered by the country’s central government. We look at some of the significant takeaways from the event, discuss China’s current economic conditions, and analyse the China A50.
Markets have no doubt that the BoE will keep its rate unchanged
Markets expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged as strong economic data continues
Market Analysis: UK economy rebounds in November – how does that impact rate cut expectations?
UK stocks rise on softer inflation as rate cut odds increase
Trio of rate holds expected from the Fed, ECB, and BoE this week
CPI drops more than expected in Europe, Spain’s IBEX 35 looking to break pre-COVID highs
Gold prices have returned above $US2000 per ounce. We run through the factors driving gold and the commodity’s key technicals.
The RBNZ meets for the final time this year on Wednesday, 29th of November, 2023. We preview what to expect and how it could impact the New Zealand Dollar.
UK Chancellor Hunt will deliver the 2023 autumn statement to MPs on Wednesday 22 November.
The US dollar weakened notably following the latest CPI data, showing a larger-than-expected dip to 3.2% in October. This decline, the first in four months, sparked a surge in AUD/USD on Tuesday, pushing prices back into a crucial resistance zone established since August (see daily candle chart below).
Over the past month, EUR/USD has been in 'mean reversion mode,' characterised by price consolidation within a turbulent ascending channel. The erratic and unpredictable nature of this price channel reflects the mixed signals emanating from the ECB.