Oil price forecast 2025-2030: Third-party price target
Discover third-party oil price predictions for 2025 and beyond, with analyst targets, historical prices, and trading strategies.
Oil prices have remained volatile in 2025, shaped by geopolitical tensions, shifting supply dynamics, and changing monetary policies. After a period of relative stability, renewed concerns over global supply disruptions have driven fluctuations in crude prices.
Recent geopolitical developments, including ongoing tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, continue to weigh on market sentiment. Sanctions on Russian oil, alongside production cuts from OPEC+, have kept supply constrained, even as global demand faces headwinds from a slowing economy and the rise of alternative energy sources.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures recently tested $70 per barrel, while Brent crude hovered around $74 per barrel, reflecting a delicate balance between supply risks and weakening demand growth. Analysts remain divided on the long-term outlook, with forecasts varying significantly based on future economic and political developments.
What’s next for oil prices? We’ll look at the outlook, recent key price drivers, and trading strategies, along with analyst predictions for 2025 and later.
Oil price forecast 2025-2030
The oil price forecast for 2025-2030 includes Goldman Sachs’ projection on 9 January 2025 that Brent crude oil may trade within a range of $70 to $85 per barrel in 2025, averaging approximately $76 per barrel. This projection considers potential impacts from geopolitical uncertainties and market dynamics.
Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration (IEA) forecasted that Brent crude oil prices will average $74 per barrel in 2025, an 8% decrease from 2024. This downward trend is attributed to anticipated growth in global oil production outpacing demand, leading to downward pressure on prices. The organisation also forecasts a decrease to $66 per barrel in 2026.
In its December 2024 report, the IEA projected that global oil supply will increase by 1.9 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day in 2025.
Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie has forecasted an increase in global oil demand by approximately 1.5 million barrels per day in 2025, with growth anticipated across all regions except Europe. However, potential trade tariffs, particularly following President Trump's re-election, pose a significant downside risk to this outlook. Such tariffs could dampen demand and exert downward pressure on oil prices.
On 4 January, the World Bank projected a decrease in oil prices from an average of $80 per barrel in 2024 to $73 in 2025 and $72 in 2026.
2030 oil price prediction
Looking further ahead, the IEA suggested that global oil prices could stabilise between $75 and $80 per barrel by 2030, influenced by increased investment in fossil fuel projects and a shift towards clean energy. Similarly, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasted average Brent Crude prices at $73 per barrel in 2030.
In September 2024, Reuters reported that Goldman Sachs expects AI to lower oil prices over the next decade by improving supply efficiency, cutting shale well costs by 30%, and increasing US shale reserves by up to 20%. While AI may boost demand, its cost-cutting effects could outweigh this, potentially reducing oil’s marginal incentive price by $5 per barrel.
Analysts’ oil price predictions are based on historical data, and can be inaccurate. Past performance isn’t a reliable indicator of future results. Do your own research, and don’t trade with more than you can afford to lose.
WTI crude oil price history
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The WTI crude oil price history has seen dramatic price swings over the past two decades, shaped by geopolitical events, economic cycles, and supply shocks.
Prices surged above $140 per barrel in 2008 before collapsing during the global financial crisis. The market rebounded in the early 2010s, only to crash again in 2014-2016 due to a supply glut triggered by the US shale boom. More recently, the Covid-19 pandemic sent WTI futures into negative territory for the first time in history in April 2020, as lockdowns crushed demand and storage capacity ran out.
WTI crude oil prices: 2022-2025
Over the past three years, WTI crude has remained volatile due to supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and shifting demand patterns:
- 2022: prices soared above $130 per barrel in March 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which triggered global supply concerns. However, prices cooled in the second half of the year as central banks raised interest rates, weakening demand. By December, WTI settled around $80 per barrel.
- 2023: oil prices fluctuated between $65 and $90 per barrel, influenced by OPEC+ production cuts, China’s uneven economic recovery, and concerns over a potential global recession. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases helped stabilise supply, but prices remained sensitive to macroeconomic trends.
- 2024: WTI crude mostly traded in a $70-$85 per barrel range, with price spikes triggered by Middle East tensions and continued supply management by OPEC+. However, weaker industrial demand and growing US shale production kept gains in check.
- 2025 (YTD): as of early 2025, WTI crude is hovering around $70 per barrel, with analysts watching global economic growth, Federal Reserve policy shifts, and potential supply disruptions as key price drivers.
Oil markets remain in flux, with traders assessing OPEC+ policy decisions, US production trends, and demand outlooks from China and India. Want to understand what’s next for crude oil? Read on for expert forecasts and market insights.
Global supply demand outlook clouded by Russia-Ukraine crisis
One of the most significant price drivers in recent years has been the Russia-Ukraine crisis, which has reshaped global oil supply chains and market expectations.
According to the EIA, global oil consumption is projected to rise to 100.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025, reflecting steady demand growth. However, this outlook is clouded by uncertainty over Russian oil production and ongoing geopolitical risks.
The EIA’s short-term energy outlook highlights key trends impacting prices:
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Sanctions on Russian oil have tightened global supply, leading to volatility in crude benchmarks.
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OPEC+ production cuts have helped support prices, but rising US shale output is acting as a counterbalance.
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Global inventories are expected to build at a rate of 0.5m b/d, which could limit price surges unless unexpected supply disruptions occur.
The EIA warns that further disruptions in Russian or Middle Eastern supply could drive crude oil prices higher than forecasted levels. Conversely, if economic growth weakens or alternative energy adoption accelerates, oil demand could underperform expectations, putting downward pressure on prices.
For traders, monitoring supply shifts, OPEC+ decisions, and US production trends will be critical in navigating oil price movements in the coming years. Don’t miss our expert news and analysis to keep on top of the latest events impacting this commodity and many other assets.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Strategies to consider for oil trading
Oil trading presents unique opportunities due to its high volatility, liquidity, and sensitivity to global events. Choosing the right trading strategy depends on your risk tolerance, time commitment, and market experience. Here are some key approaches tailored to oil markets.
Trend trading strategy
Trend trading involves identifying and capitalising on sustained price movements in oil. Traders use indicators like the relative strength index (RSI), moving averages, and MACD to confirm trends and pinpoint entry and exit levels.
Since oil prices are heavily influenced by macroeconomic shifts, geopolitical tensions, and supply-demand dynamics, staying informed about market news and analysis and OPEC decisions is crucial. However, traders must be prepared for trend reversals, especially during unexpected supply shocks or policy changes.
Swing trading strategy
Swing trading targets price swings over days or weeks, allowing traders to capitalise on oil’s reaction to:
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OPEC production decisions
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Economic reports (e.g., GDP, inflation, energy demand)
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Weather events affecting production or transportation
This strategy requires a balance of technical analysis (chart patterns, support/resistance levels) and fundamental insights. Keeping on top of your risk management with stop-loss orders and position sizing is essential, as oil’s price swings can be unpredictable.