Kyle Rodda

Australian labour market and wage data to reveal job growth resilience, shaping RBA rate cut expectations and impacting AUD amidst global economic shifts.

The FOMC cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, aligning with expectations. Wall Street hit record highs following the decision, with tech stocks leading the rally. Markets are pricing in a probable December cut amid resilient economic indicators.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep its cash rate on hold at 4.35% when it announces its policy decision at 2.30PM on the 5th of November, 2024. Despite ongoing evidence of soft demand, upside risks to inflation are likely to remain the central bank’s primary concern.

The US earnings season has started on a positive note, with major banks exceeding expectations and boosting market sentiment.Key themes for the sector include investments in artificial intelligence, capital expenditure returns, and consumer trends in advertising and e-commerce. The S&P 500 continues to climb, driven by strong earnings, resilient economic growth, and the potential for interest rate cuts. Keep an eye on significant support and resistance levels as the market tests new record highs.

Australia's labour market remained stable in September 2024, with the unemployment rate forecast to hold at 4.2%, supported by a 25,200 person rise in employment. Despite the economy teetering on the edge of recession, strong hiring trends persist, challenging market economists' predictions.

Earnings growth across the S&P 500 is expected to be modest in Q3, with a projected 4.2% increase in EPS, down from 7.8% in the previous quarter. Information technology, health care, and communication services are poised to drive growth, particularly IT with a forecasted 15% year-over-year EPS increase.

US inflation expectations are steady, with core CPI projected to remain at 3.2% for September while headline inflation moderates to its lowest level since February 2021. Despite the US Federal Reserve delivering a 50 basis point interest rate cut in September, stronger-than-expected job market data has raised concerns about sustained economic demand and inflation pressures.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is set to cut interest rates during its upcoming meeting, with expectations of either a 25 or 50 basis point reduction. This move follows a 25 basis point cut in August as the RBNZ responded to the country’s recessionary conditions and inflation concerns.

Markets are reacting with a US Dollar surge and a potential trend reversal, highlighting the impact of robust economic activity outside of monetary policy influences.

Kyle Rodda, Senior Market Analyst at Capital.com, previews the US Non-Farm Payrolls report for September. The article discusses market expectations of a stable labor market with 150,000 new jobs, an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2%, and steady annual wage growth at 3.8%. It also highlights potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, revisions to past payroll data, and the reaction of various markets such as the US Dollar, S&P 500, and gold.