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Uptober: Could this last week of October be big for bitcoin?

By Daniela Ešnerová

13:25, 24 October 2022

BTC coins up and down
Will BTC pull off ‘Uptober’ or ‘Rektober’ this year around? – Photo: ShutterStock.

Far from being spooky, October has largely been a positive month for bitcoin (BTC) historically, with the crypto king finishing the month in the green ten out of the last 13 Octobers. 

Capital.com analysis of BTC’s investment return data from 2011 to 2021 shows that October is the second-best month of the year for BTC performance

As BTC entered the last week of October 2022 trading virtually flat on its values from the beginning of the month, some market watchers are suggesting that bitcoin may take off just in time for pumpkin season.

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Bitcoin (BTC) to US dollar

Bitcoin’s historic trading cycles

Bitcoin is a relatively young asset and in the 13 years of its existence its trading patterns have been slowly observed by a growing group of enthusiasts.

Historically, September tends to be a bad month for bitcoin’s performance, while October tends to be positive – hence the months have come to be known as Septembear and Uptober in the crypto sphere.

Investment returns data appears to support this proverbial wisdom. A Capital.com analysis of the monthly return figures showed that September was the bloodiest month for the main virtual currency, with bitcoin losing on average 7% in value.

Meanwhile, October on average returned 14.6%. Only July, with an average monthly return of 15.8%, appears to have been more successful. Either way, it is also important to remember that past events are no guarantee of future events. 

Still to be tested by wider market downturn

While BTC was borne out of the 2008’s financial crisis, bitcoin has not, until now, been tested in a wider market downturn with economies bracing for a recession. 

ETH/USD

3,422.45 Price
+0.020% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0616%
Short position overnight fee 0.0137%
Overnight fee time 21:00 (UTC)
Spread 6.00

XRP/USD

0.58 Price
-8.930% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0753%
Short position overnight fee 0.0069%
Overnight fee time 21:00 (UTC)
Spread 0.01168

BTC/USD

63,816.45 Price
-1.030% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0616%
Short position overnight fee 0.0137%
Overnight fee time 21:00 (UTC)
Spread 106.00

BCH/USD

383.70 Price
+1.520% 1D Chg, %
Long position overnight fee -0.0753%
Short position overnight fee 0.0069%
Overnight fee time 21:00 (UTC)
Spread 2.50

The main digital asset has been navigating this novel environment calmly. Bitcoin, which is part of a risky, highly-volatile crypto market, has been trading steadily in what is seen a positive sign according to some market watchers. 

“Bitcoin has held the low from June while stock markets have carried on falling – even as the dollar has surged. While this is positive in itself, it shows the strength of bitcoin in this market,” said Charlie Morris, a founder of the digital assets data platform ByteTree. He added: 

“The Fed has also recognised this carnage in the markets, and we can only suspect that the tightening programme will subsequently begin the ease. Again, lending a positive signal for bitcoin in the future.”

Also a potentially bullish sign for the crypto king lies in the long-term conviction of HODLers – 66% of bitcoin’s total supply has not moved in a year, marking a new record, data from Glassnode analysis show. Could this record-high illiquid BTC supply spell a bullish sign for the crypto king? 

“The bullish case for bitcoin at present is one of unwavering conviction, and persistent balance growth by the HODLer cohort,” writes Glassnode’s on-chain analyst going by the pseudonym Checkmate. He added: 

“Liquid coins continue to flow out of exchanges, relative stablecoin buying power is increasing, and extreme volatility and severe downside has thus far failed to shake out Bitcoins most die-hard believers.” 

With a week until the end of October, only time will tell whether BTC will keep its seasonal uptrend tradition this time around.

Remember, before coming to any investment decision, it is down to you to carry out your own thorough research into the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns and you should never trade with money that you cannot afford to lose.

Markets in this article

BTC/USD
Bitcoin / USD
63816.45 USD
-666.3 -1.030%

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The difference between trading assets and CFDs
The main difference between CFD trading and trading assets, such as commodities and stocks, is that you don’t own the underlying asset when you trade on a CFD.
You can still benefit if the market moves in your favour, or make a loss if it moves against you. However, with traditional trading you enter a contract to exchange the legal ownership of the individual shares or the commodities for money, and you own this until you sell it again.
CFDs are leveraged products, which means that you only need to deposit a percentage of the full value of the CFD trade in order to open a position. But with traditional trading, you buy the assets for the full amount. In the UK, there is no stamp duty on CFD trading, but there is when you buy stocks, for example.
CFDs attract overnight costs to hold the trades (unless you use 1-1 leverage), which makes them more suited to short-term trading opportunities. Stocks and commodities are more normally bought and held for longer. You might also pay a broker commission or fees when buying and selling assets direct and you’d need somewhere to store them safely.
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