Uptober: Could this last week of October be big for bitcoin?
13:25, 24 October 2022
Far from being spooky, October has largely been a positive month for bitcoin (BTC) historically, with the crypto king finishing the month in the green ten out of the last 13 Octobers.
Capital.com analysis of BTC’s investment return data from 2011 to 2021 shows that October is the second-best month of the year for BTC performance
As BTC entered the last week of October 2022 trading virtually flat on its values from the beginning of the month, some market watchers are suggesting that bitcoin may take off just in time for pumpkin season.
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Bitcoin’s historic trading cycles
Bitcoin is a relatively young asset and in the 13 years of its existence its trading patterns have been slowly observed by a growing group of enthusiasts.
Historically, September tends to be a bad month for bitcoin’s performance, while October tends to be positive – hence the months have come to be known as Septembear and Uptober in the crypto sphere.
Investment returns data appears to support this proverbial wisdom. A Capital.com analysis of the monthly return figures showed that September was the bloodiest month for the main virtual currency, with bitcoin losing on average 7% in value.
Meanwhile, October on average returned 14.6%. Only July, with an average monthly return of 15.8%, appears to have been more successful. Either way, it is also important to remember that past events are no guarantee of future events.
Still to be tested by wider market downturn
While BTC was borne out of the 2008’s financial crisis, bitcoin has not, until now, been tested in a wider market downturn with economies bracing for a recession.
The main digital asset has been navigating this novel environment calmly. Bitcoin, which is part of a risky, highly-volatile crypto market, has been trading steadily in what is seen a positive sign according to some market watchers.
“Bitcoin has held the low from June while stock markets have carried on falling – even as the dollar has surged. While this is positive in itself, it shows the strength of bitcoin in this market,” said Charlie Morris, a founder of the digital assets data platform ByteTree. He added:
Also a potentially bullish sign for the crypto king lies in the long-term conviction of HODLers – 66% of bitcoin’s total supply has not moved in a year, marking a new record, data from Glassnode analysis show. Could this record-high illiquid BTC supply spell a bullish sign for the crypto king?
“The bullish case for bitcoin at present is one of unwavering conviction, and persistent balance growth by the HODLer cohort,” writes Glassnode’s on-chain analyst going by the pseudonym Checkmate. He added:
With a week until the end of October, only time will tell whether BTC will keep its seasonal uptrend tradition this time around.
Remember, before coming to any investment decision, it is down to you to carry out your own thorough research into the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns and you should never trade with money that you cannot afford to lose.
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