Approaching the year's end, QTUM, Quantum’s native cryptocurrency, has been rallying lately. At $17.15, it is now (15 November) nearly 800% up on its 2021 starting pricc. Although it is still well down on its year-high of $35.38.
Is there scope for QTUM to extend its rally into 2022 and beyond?
In this article, we look at the recent developments in the Quantum blockchain and QTUM price predictions from forecasters.
Quantum offers developer rewards as halving approaches
Founded in 2016, with the cryptocurrency launching in 2017, Quantum is an enterprise-focused blockchain running smart contracts on multiple virtual machines. This hybrid blockchain, which combines features of Bitcoin and Ethereum, operates on a decentralised Proof of Stake (POS) consensus algorithm.
Like many newer blockchains, Quantum is focused on developing decentralised finance (DeFI) applications. Its stated aim is to provide an “alternative EVM-compatible platform for developers who want to deploy their dApps without having to suffer from congestion and astronomical gas fees” – issues which have affected the Ethereum blockchain.
In August 2020, Quantum co-founder Patrick Dai announced $1m in grants to encourage developers to create DeFi applications on the blockchain. Quantum launched QiSwap in November 2020, which it described as “a fully decentralised protocol that automatically provides liquidity for QTUM based on automated market making (AMM) algorithms”.
In February, the Quantum project announced it had worked with the Gate.io blockchain exchange to lock 3 million QTUM tokens, valued at $20m. The tokens were wrapped to provide rewards for developers pursuing DeFi opportunities on Ethereum decentralised exchanges and protocols.
Quantum is offering $10,000 in rewards at the Wanxiang Blockchain Hackathon, which will open Shanghai International Blockchain Week (10-15 September). As an event co-sponsor, Quantum is inviting developers to build non-fungible token (NFT) applications “on [the] Qtum blockchain to empower the construction of smart cities”.
And on 7 August, Dai said that there was $5m in cash available to “reward to NFT/GameFi/Metaverse Projects on Qtum”.
In more recent QTUM news, Dai said Quantum will be undergoing changes in the coming months, as “we are planning a rebranding for Qtum and rebuild the tech and global consensus. Qtum has some unique tech stacks and made some great innovations for [the] Bitcoin ecosystem”.
In October Dai tweeted: "Qtum will support Bitcoin Taproot in the next release."
A hard fork, or split, in the Quantum blockchain in April 2021 reduced the inflation rate for the QTUM token to 1% from 4%. Like Bitcoin, the blockchain is designed to reduce the reward for miners over time in a process known as “halving”. The first Quantum halving is scheduled for December 2021, with intervals to follow every four years.
By reducing rewards for miners and putting a hard limit on coin supply, the halving process has a deflationary effect and supports a rise in the coin price over the long-term. About the halving, Dai tweeted in November: "Then (the) Qtum inflation rate will decrease to 0.5% per year. It’s more rare and lower inflation than Gold and BTC and ETH."
The Quantum blockchain is faster than Bitcoin, with blocks processed every 32 seconds, so the schedule differs from the Bitcoin halvings.
The maximum supply of QTUM is capped at 107.8 million coins, which will be reached in December 2045. There are currently 98.86 million coins in circulation, of a total 103.6 million in supply, according to CoinMarketCap. That gave QTUM a market capitalisation of $1.7bn at the time of writing (15 November), ranking it as the 83rd largest cryptocurrency.
The QTUM/USD chart shows that the price spiked to an all-time intraday high of $106.88 on 7 January 2018, during the previous cryptocurrency rally. The price had collapsed to $1.50 by the end of the year, below its launch price of around $4, and remained below $4 – except for a brief rise in June 2019 – until February 2021, when the broader cryptocurrency markets rallied again.
The emergence of decentralised applications and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) has driven interest in altcoins such as QTUM. The price rallied to a three-year high of $35.38 on 7 May. It dropped back to a low of $4.46 on 27 June, trading no higher than $8 until the market bottomed out at the end of July. QTUM was trading at $17 at the time of writing (15 November).
So, what does the latest QTUM price analysis indicate about the coin’s future?
QTUM price prediction: can the coin rebound to its record high?
Short-term technical analysis on QTUM from CoinCodex indicates that sentiment is positive, with 27 indicators giving off bullish signals, compared with three bearish signals. Worth around $17 at the time of writing, QTUM was trading above the 3-day out to 200-day simple and exponential moving averages. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD), the stochastic relative strength index (RSI) and the RSI were all neutral.
Trading at $17, QTUM has support levels of $16.55, $15.86 and the strongest at $15.29, with resistance levels at $17.82, $18.39, and $19.39.
Running on a blockchain that looks to provide an alternative to Ethereum, the QTUM price is positively correlated to the ether (ETH) price, CoinCodex data showed.
The QTUM price forecast from Wallet Investor projects that the coin could end the year at $30.27. For the longer term, it predicts the price could potentially hit $40.9 by December 2022 and then trading at $72.43 by December 2025.
DigitalCoin predicts QTUM may end 2021 at $25.76, rising to $29.63 in 2022 and $48.79 in 2025, with the price reaching $85.65 in 2028.
The QTUM/USD forecast from Trading Beasts is less bullish, predicting a price of $14.28 for the end of 2021, $15.2 in December 2022, $14.98 in December 2023 and $12.66 in December 2024.
It’s important to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets remain extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin’s price will be in a few hours, and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research, and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis, and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. And never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Cryptocurrencies are high-risk investments, particularly the smaller altcoins like QTUM. Its future will depend on the adoption of the Quantum blockchain and cryptocurrency in applications, over the range of other blockchains that are being developed. The future of cryptocurrencies as an asset class remains uncertain, and investors could shift to alternative assets, removing liquidity.
Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile assets, making them riskier than other forms of investment. Whether QTUM is a good investment for you depends on your personal circumstances. You should evaluate the level of risk you are prepared to accept before investing and never invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Online forecast services do not expect QTUM to return to the $100 level in the next few years. Based on their predictions, it could take until the end of the decade to reach the previous all-time high.
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