GBP/AUD forecast: Time for consolidation
What do the most recent pound to Australian dollar forecasts from analysts indicate about the direction of the pair in 2022? This article looks at the factors influencing this currency pair and the GBP/AUD outlook following its recent moves.
GBP vs AUD chart analysis: Where is the pair now?
The GBP/AUD pair has traded within a narrow range of 1.74 to 1.91 in 2021. With the Covid-19 situation improving in the United Kingdom earlier than in Australia, sterling has gained for most of the year against the Australian dollar.
In fact, up to August, the GBP was the outperformer among G10 currencies, while the Aussie dollar was the underperformer. By late August, the GBP/AUD hit a year-to-date high of 1.91.
However, things started to turn around for the Australian dollar from late August as commodity and energy prices started rising. Some of the sharpest gains made by the Aussie dollar came in October. On 17 November, the GBP/AUD was at 1.83.
GBP/AUD: Technical analysis
Current market sentiment for the pair reflects confidence in the United Kingdom’s steady recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic as well as positivity about Australia’s economic growth, underscored by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s dovish tones.
At the time of writing (17 November), data from Capital.com shows trader sentiment at 59% bullish and 41% bearish. The data is calculated automatically, based on open positions for GBP/AUD on the platform and should not be considered as an incentive to trade the asset.
Analysts at Westpac see the GBP/AUD rising to 1.85-1.86, but falling to 1.82 by the year’s end. Over the coming months GBP/AUD news is expected to be dominated by decisions made by the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England on monetary tightening as the two countries look at life beyond Covid-19.
GBP/AUD forecast: Key fundamental drivers
Economic performance is one of the main drivers for currency rates, and the GBP/AUD pair responds to economic indicators, including gross domestic product (GDP), international trade data, interest rates and inflation.
For the Australian dollar, commodity prices are an important factor – the mining industry accounts for a large portion of the Australian economy, and China accounts for a large volume of the country’s commodity exports.
Sterling is one of the world’s strongest currencies. It’s the former global reserve currency with a role in a major financial trading centre. The value of GBP has been predominantly driven by the status of the Brexit process since the UK voted to leave the European Union in a 2016 referendum.
GBP to AUD predictions: What are the analysts saying?
The near term GBP to AUD predictions is one of appreciation for sterling. Factors that helped the Aussie dollar in recent weeks, such as higher energy prices and commodity prices, are starting to wane, while the Bank of England appears to be moving towards a rate hike.
Recent economic data, however, are once again stoking expectations of a rate hike earlier than expected. According to experts at Dutch bank ING, a rate hike in December is possible.
“The jobs data out of the UK confirmed our view that the drag generated by the end of the furlough scheme was limited. September’s unemployment rate fell by more than expected, from 4.5% to 4.3% as the economy added 247,000 new jobs. October’s claimant count rate also decreased from 5.2% to 5.1%. Weekly earnings eased from the previous month, but by less than expected,” a note from ING stated.
“Fears of a slowdown in the jobs market around the end of the furlough scheme was a major factor that prompted the Bank of England to keep rates on hold at its latest meeting. Given the lack of evidence of a slowdown in today’s strong jobs data, the case for a December 15 basis points hike is now stronger, and markets are almost fully pricing in such a move.”
According to Sean Callow, senior currency strategist at Westpac, the GBP/AUD pair is in for a period of consolidation.
“The Aussie made steep gains against sterling in October, but with both the RBA and Bank of England starting November with more dovish than expected decisions, GBP/AUD may be in for a period of consolidation… The Bank of England decision on 4 November to hold the bank rate at 0.1% sent yields tumbling, given pre-meeting hawkish comments from officials including Governor Bailey. Markets are now not fully priced for a rate rise until Feb 2022. However, the QE [quantitative easing] program looks set to conclude next month,” he said in a note.
On the other hand Australia’s economy is showing signs of recovery as Covid-19 restrictions get lifted and activity picks up.
However, compared to the United Kingdom, Australia’s interest rate hikes are only expected to come at least a year later.
As a result the GBP to AUD forecast for 2022 is one of further consolidation as the Aussie starts to lose momentum compared to sterling once the Bank of England starts raising interest rates.
When looking for GBP/AUD predictions, it’s important to bear in mind that analysts’ forecasts can be wrong. Analysts’ projections are based on making a fundamental and technical study of the currency pair’s performance. However, past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Do your own research and always remember your decision to trade depends on your attitude to risk, your expertise in this market, the spread of your investment portfolio and how comfortable you feel about losing money. And never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Key facts about GBP/AUD pair
The British pound sterling (GBP) to Australian dollar (AUD) exchange rate shows how many AUD are needed to buy one GBP.
The Australian dollar, known popularly as the Aussie dollar, is the official currency of the Commonwealth of Australia. It is the fifth most traded currency, even though Australia's gross domestic product (GDP) is the world’s 12th largest.
The GBP is the official currency of the United Kingdom, the world’s fifth largest economy, and it is fourth most traded currency in the world, accounting for 12.7% of all global forex transactions in the world.
FAQ
Is the Australian dollar strong?
The Australian dollar is one of the strongest global currencies. Being the currency of a large and developed economy supports its value. The currency also benefits frequently from higher commodity prices.
What is the best time to trade GBP/AUD?
While it is possible to trade GBP/AUD 24/7, the best hours to trade the currency pair are when they experience higher volumes, typically around major market announcements. Australia’s announcements are typically made during the early morning to noon in Australian Eastern Standard Time, which is 10 hours ahead of GMT. The Bank of England’s announcements and economic data releases are made during the morning hours in London.
What affects GBP/AUD?
The GBP/AUD pair largely moves on the economic strength and news of the two countries. The Australian dollar is impacted by commodity prices. The GBP, on the other hand, is a marker for the strength of the British economy, which is the world’s fifth largest.