Farmmi (FAMI) stock forecast: Investing in mushrooms
Farmmi (FAMI) is a Chinese agricultural producer based in the city of Lishui specialised in making and marketing mainly mushrooms and other fungal derivative products.
The company was founded back in 2003 by chair and CEO Yefang Zhang and made its debut as a publicly listed company on the NASDAQ exchange in February 2018.
Since that initial public offering (IPO) at a price of around $6 a share, the Farmmi stock price has suffered a general decline, and currently (9 December) trades at around $0.25 following the significant dilution of shareholders’ holdings in two capital raises in 2021.
But despite the long-running slump, the stock has trended upwards in recent weeks after it secured the minimum bid requirements from NASDAQ until March 2022. With a strong position in the growing wellness market and improving financials, could the FAMI stock price forecast be looking up?
What does Farmmi (FAMI) produce?
Farmii is an agricultural production and marketing company specialised in producing mushrooms and related products that it supplies to restaurants, cafeterias, specialty stores and other customers.
The company operates primarily in mainland China, which accounts for 94% of total sales, but also in international markets such as Japan and the US, where it is seeking to expand.
Four main products provide Farmii’s income: Shiitake mushrooms, wood ear mushrooms (Mu Er), other edible fungi and other packaged dried fungi, which are sold both directly to stores and restaurants as well as being marketed through the company’s own online platform, Farmmi Jicai.
The majority of sales stem from the first two products, with the wood ear mushrooms a common ingredient in Chinese holistic medicines, which are growing in popularity and sales both domestically and abroad.
Farmmi stock analysis: Can the mushroom seller regain post-IPO highs?
Since first listing in February 2018, the Farmmi stock value has suffered. The price declined steadily from a listing of $6 to around $2 at the beginning of this year amid underperforming financial results and loss-making.
FAMI struggled to keep up sales during the pandemic-affected 2020 financial year, and by the beginning of 2021 began seeking new sources of capital to support its turnaround plan.
The company raised $48.3m in April by issuing 141m new shares at a valuation of $0.30, below the then trading price of just under $1 a share, pushing the price down significantly with current investors heavily diluted.
It followed that up with another issue of 368m shares in September, with the price further lowered to an offer of $0.22 each, raising $81m.
The dilution combined with poor previous financials has pushed the stock down from a February 2021 high of $2.21 to currently trade at levels around $0.25.
In recent trading days the shares have shown more volatility, rising and falling by as much as 9% amid news that the company had been granted the minimum bid extension by NASDAQ to continue trading on the bourse through March 2022.
Latest earnings growth driven by Shiitake mushrooms
Following a heavy drop in sales during 2020, when the pandemic forced widespread closures and lower deliveries, Farmii reported improved financial results in the six month period ended March 31 2021.
Overall revenues increased 31% to $17.8m compared to the same period in 2020, driven by a 37.6% rise in income from Shiitake to $10.1m and a 27.4% hike in Mu Er sales to $7.3m.
The result translated into net income for the period of $1.36m, compared to a loss of $60,000 in the prior year period, equivalent to basic and diluted earnings per share of $0.07.
Margins also improved during the period on a gross basis, growing by 1.3 percentage points to 16.8%.
Farmii said the increased sales volume was mainly due to the recovery of economic activity in China since the end of Covid-19 lockdowns in April 2020.
“Our efforts paid off and we achieved impressive growth in our core Shiitake and Mu Er businesses, as we continue to leverage our competitive advantages, including premium product quality, sought after production locations and strong supplier relationships.
“Importantly, we significantly strengthened our balance sheet and now have the resources to support our accelerated long-term growth strategy."
Farmmi (FAMI) stock forecast amid limited coverage
The FAMI share price prediction is tricky to foresee, and shareholders have suffered significant losses since the firm first listed, exacerbated by the dilution of existing stock during the two capital raises and share issuances conducted so far this year.
While financial performances have failed to help the price over the last few years, recent gains and positive indications from the last set of financial results make it difficult to say whether Farmmi stock is a ‘buy’, ‘sell’ or ‘hold’. Plus, there are currently no FAMI stock price targets due to limited analyst coverage.
Any Farmii stock forecast (2025-2030) has to take into account the potential for further dilutions, but at current valuations the company may offer significant upside, according to China-based research and analysis firm Equal Ocean.
Skye Lan, research analyst at Equal Ocean, pointed out that as a smaller company, Farmmii may not have the brand recognition, but it could present an opportunity as margins improve, costs come under control and the opportunity for development in both products and new markets remains.
“Unlike many traditional agriculture producers in the space, Farmmi has been utilizing trendy tools, like web-based products, to ensure its future competitiveness,” Lan wrote in a recent research note.
“The recently raised funds are leveraged by the company to enhance its e-commerce capabilities, IT and supply chain systems. These capital expenditures and the integration of online and offline business models may generate more income for the company.
Note that analysts’ predictions can be wrong. Forecasts shouldn’t be used as a substitute for your own research. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing. And never invest or trade money you cannot afford to lose.
Downside risks for Farmmi
As with all small-cap stocks, Farmmi poses risks to investors. The price can be subject to more volatility with lower overall trading volume and a smaller investor base.
There also remains the risk of further dilution for existing investors should the company opt to issue more shares to raise capital to fund investment and operational expenses.
As a China-based company listed in the US, Farmmi is also exposed to potential future actions by the Chinese and US governments or geopolitical tensions which may affect its ability to maintain its listing on the NASDAQ.
FAQs
Is Farmmi stock a buy?
Skye Lan, research analyst at Equal Ocean, pointed out that as a small brand, Farmmii may not have the brand recognition, but it could present an opportunity as margins improve, costs come under control and the opportunity for development remains amid the growing fungi market.
As with all small-cap stocks, Farmmi poses risks to investors. The price can be subject to more volatility with lower overall trading volume and a smaller investor base.
As a China-based company listed in the US, Farmmi is also exposed to potential future actions by the Chinese and US governments or geopolitical tensions, which may affect its ability to maintain a listing on NASDAQ.
Will Farmmi stock go up?
There is limited analyst coverage on the stock, which makes it difficult to predict the future price of FAMI.
Skye Lan, research analyst at Equal Ocean, pointed out that as a small brand, Farmmii may not have the brand recognition, but it could present an opportunity as margins improve, costs come under control and the opportunity for development remains amid the growing fungi market.
As with all small-cap stocks, Farmmi poses risks to investors and the price can be subject to more volatility with lower overall trading volume and a smaller investor base.
As a China-based company listed in the US, Farmmi is also exposed to potential future actions by the Chinese and US governments or geopolitical tensions which may impact its ability to maintain its listing on NASDAQ.
Why has FAMI stock been going up?
The latest positive Farmmi stock news was the announcement that it had secured the minimum bid requirement from NASDAQ through to March 2022, which sent the share price climbing.