Market Analysis: Gold, Nasdaq 100, GBPUSD
A look into how gold, the Nasdaq 100 and GBPUSD are trading during a busy week of ok key earnings reports and central bank meetings.
We’re in the midst of one of the busiest weeks in the quarter with a combination of MAG7 earnings and central bank meetings with a backdrop focused on trade talks between the US and China. Here’s a look at how some of the key markets are performing:
GOLD
XAU/USD has been unable to contain the selling momentum after last week’s meltdown with the precious metal dropping below $4,000 for the first time since breaking above the key threshold earlier this month. The move continues to be driven by repositioning after a long stint of overstretched conditions which had led to frenzy buying. Last week, the ostensible trigger—US–China cooperation—was likely just the excuse a frothy market needed. Structurally, the long-term pillars remain (central bank buying, debasement/de-dollarization hedges, easier policy), but near-term positioning needs to wash out. The daily chart suggests the pullback has deepened enough to reset most of the overbought conditions present in the RSI, however further pullback towards $3,800 could ensue if the selling momentum deepens. The FOMC meeting on Wednesday will be a key event to determine the appetite in precious metals. Markets are fully convinced that a 25bps cut is coming, however the devil will be in the details and whether Powell seems to lean into the markets positioning of future cuts or whether his tone is a bit more balanced.
Gold (XAU/USD) daily chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
NASDAQ 100
US equites have resumed the uptrend after a few days of sideways consolidation and are now back to testing their respective all-time highs on the back of a convergence of favourable fundamentals. First, easing inflation and the prospect of looser monetary policy have reduced recession risk and pushed discount rates lower. At the same time, earnings have held up, with many companies beating expectations and forward growth estimates ticking higher. Add to that the AI-driven capex boom—especially in chip, hardware and cloud infrastructure—and you have a structural growth narrative that extends well beyond a simple cyclical rebound. As a result, the Nasdaq 100 has surged past the 26,000 mark after a strong start to the week. The RSI is approaching the overbought level (which is often well-respected in this market) so a softening of the upside momentum could ensue. That said, the FOMC meeting is likely to remain a tailwind into the end of the week if markets are convinced that the central bank is on board with their pre-set easing cycle into 2026. Any disappointment from that could see the bullish momentum paused and reversed slightly after the meeting. There will also be focus on five of the MAG7 companies which will report their earnings between Wednesday and Thursday, with heavy scrutiny placed on AI capital expenditures and growth outlooks, with the potential for renewed downside in the Nasdaq 100 if investors are disappointed.
Nasdaq 100 daily chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
GBP/USD
The British Pound is facing renewed downside pressure this week with GBP/USD nearing a three-month low on increased rate cut odds. Markets have sharply increased bets on a Bank of England rate cut next week as recent data points to cooling inflation and softer economic momentum. Underlying price pressures—particularly in services—have started to ease, suggesting the BoE’s battle against inflation is gaining traction. At the same time, the UK economy is showing clearer signs of fatigue, with slowing wage growth, weakening household demand, and a softer labour market raising concerns about stalling activity. This combination of falling inflation and subdued growth has strengthened the case for the central bank to begin loosening policy. Current pricing shows a 35% chance of a 25bps cut on November 6th, a large increase from the almost null chance that was priced in earlier this month. The pair will likely be influenced by the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, with a pullback in the dollar allowing GBP/USD to halt some of the selling pressure, at least temporarily. However, the bias remains skewed to the downside heading into the BoE meeting next week, with focus on 1.3140 as the key area of support.
GBP/USD daily chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.