Gold rejected at 3,700 ahead of FOMC

Gold is finally delivering the kind of movement traders have been waiting for. After months of steady gains, the metal has been gaining traction after decisively breaking above the symmetrical triangle that had contained price action for months, confirming a bullish resolution to a long period of coiling. Momentum has been strong, yet the past week shows a flatter profile as buyers struggled to extend the move.

That pause looks partly technical—natural profit-taking after a sharp run following several months of sideways trade—rather than a change in the bigger narrative, which remains supportive for the topside. In the very near term, though, that overhang can act as resistance.

The next decisive cue likely comes from the Federal Reserve. As a non-yielding asset, gold is highly sensitive to the direction of policy rates and real yields, so the dot plot, updated projections and Chair Powell’s messaging will matter as much as the headline decision. If the Fed validates the market’s expectation for a clearly dovish path over the next six to eight months, the breakout could gather pace and extend higher, with bulls eyeing another attempt to break $3,700 should momentum consolidate.

Gold (XAU/USD) weekly chart

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

If, instead, the Fed is hawkish or simply less dovish than currently priced in, a cooling period would be logical, with a retest toward the $3,500 area a reasonable risk. Even in that scenario, the broader structure remains constructive: on higher time frames the trend is still pointed up, though a weekly RSI tilting into overbought territory warns that short-term shakes are possible before the advance resumes.