Cocoa price prediction: Third-party target

Cocoa prices have fallen sharply in 2025 after hitting a record high of $12,931 in December 2024. As of 11 April 2025, US cocoa spot contracts opened at $8,118 per metric ton – down 27.7% on the year and 19.5% year-on-year. While May saw a recovery to above $10,000, by July 2, the price had fallen again to $8,376.

The drop reflects easing supply constraints and improved West African production, though structural issues like ageing plantations and crop disease remain.

So what’s next for cocoa? Below, we explore the latest third-party forecasts and price predictions for 2025 and beyond.

Cocoa price forecasts for 2025 and beyond

Cocoa prices eased in mid 2025 after an explosive start to the year. US cocoa futures peaked near $11,000 per tonne in January but moderated through March and April. Despite the pullback, Q1 prices were still 15% higher than the previous quarter and nearly 70% above the same period in 2024, the World Bank noted. The rally was driven by poor weather in West Africa and strong seasonal demand, but improving supply prospects have since cooled the market.

Looking ahead, the World Bank forecasted cocoa prices will rise by 9% over 2025, supported by tight carryover stocks and lagging supply recovery. However, as global output improves, prices are expected to decline 13% in 2026. This cooling effect reflects expectations that production from Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and other major growers will gradually outpace demand.

ING takes a more cautious stance, noting that while prices have dropped significantly from their 2024 highs, the market remains volatile and further downside is possible – but contingent on stable harvests. ING does not publish a specific price target, but points to a return to surplus as justification for softer pricing ahead.

According to ING’s Warren Patterson, cocoa has gone from the best-performing commodity of 2024 to one of the worst in 2025. A small global surplus of 142,000 tonnes is expected this season, but inventories remain historically tight after three years of deficit. Managed money net-long positions in London cocoa have more than halved since January, while declining open interest has amplified price volatility. Patterson notes that if current supply expectations hold, prices may trend lower – but thin liquidity and any fresh weather shocks could still trigger sharp moves in the months ahead.

Earlier in the year, the International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO) noted that while rainfall in Côte d'Ivoire has varied, moisture levels remained adequate for the April-September mid-crop. Rising temperatures, however, pose risks to trees and young pods. Still, the ICCO didn't expect a supply deficit, forecasting stronger production from other major growers to offset any Ivorian shortfall.

Cocoa market: Long-term predictions

It’s worth noting that there aren’t many longer-term price predictions for cocoa prices due to the unpredictability of factors influencing soft commodities prices, such as seasonality and weather conditions. 

However, Wallet Investor did give a five-year cocoa forecast, reflecting a bullish outlook. The algorithmic forecasting provider suggested a $9,238.86 closing price for 2025, rising to $11,267.93 for 2026, and $13,287.67 by 2027. It projected cocoa to reach $17,919.25 by 2030.

Forecasts and predictions are projected from historical data and cannot take into account the influence of unpredictable events. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. 

Cocoa’s recent price history

Cocoa prices started climbing in 2023 when adverse weather conditions in major producing regions, such as Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, coupled with crop diseases like black pod rot, limited cocoa yields and tightened supply. This continued into 2024, when on 18 December 2024, US cocoa spot contracts hit an all-time high of $12,931 per metric ton – reflecting a sharp increase in demand amid constrained production.

Improved weather conditions in early 2025 and reduced disease pressure alleviated supply constraints, though structural issues like underinvestment remain significant. As production forecasts improved for the 2024/25 season, cocoa prices began to decline.

On 11 April 2025, US cocoa spot contracts opened at $8,118 per metric ton – a 27.70% decrease year-to-date and a 19.48% drop compared to the same period in 2024. However, after a brief recovery above $10,000 in May, prices fell back to below $8,400 in July.

What influences cocoa’s price?

Cocoa’s price is influenced by a combination of seasonal demand, weather patterns, currency fluctuations, geopolitical risk, and broader macroeconomic trends. 

Seasonal demand

Historically, cocoa consumption increases during key retail periods such as Easter, Christmas, Valentine’s Day and Halloween, particularly in Western markets. Demand from chocolate manufacturers often increases in the months leading up to these events, supporting short-term price gains.

In Q1 2024, Mondelez International – producer of Cadbury and Toblerone – cited seasonal demand as a driver of revenue growth. However, once peak buying periods pass, demand often normalises. This can lead to price declines, particularly if stockpiles remain high or consumer spending slows.

Weather and crop conditions

Cocoa is a weather-sensitive crop, heavily concentrated in West Africa. Drought, excessive rainfall or crop disease can disrupt harvests, reduce yields and drive prices higher. The 2024 price rally was largely linked to adverse growing conditions in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, alongside supply chain disruptions and rising production costs.

Conditions have since improved. In 2025, the ICCO reported more favourable weather, supporting stronger mid-crop expectations. However, climate risks remain a structural concern. Shifts in rainfall or temperature continue to influence market expectations and futures pricing.

Learn more about commodity trading.

Currency movements

Cocoa is priced in US dollars. A stronger dollar makes cocoa more expensive for international buyers, potentially curbing demand. Conversely, it can boost local currency earnings for exporters, incentivising higher output in major producing countries.

However, extended dollar strength may raise costs for input-dependent producers while simultaneously boosting local currency revenues for exporters. Forex rate volatility can also influence speculative positioning in cocoa futures markets.

Geopolitics and trade policy

Political stability and trade policy in cocoa-exporting nations can affect supply routes and export costs. In 2025, Trading Economics flagged a proposed 21% US tariff on Ivorian goods, noting it could weigh on global cocoa trade and pricing; however, its implementation remains uncertain.

Trade restrictions, port disruptions or regulatory changes – such as tax adjustments or export bans – can reduce supply and lift prices. On the other hand, improved trade access or easing of tensions may support price stability.

For more on what might move prices across a range of assets, check out our timely news and analysis. 

Macroeconomic factors

Cocoa demand is sensitive to consumer spending patterns. Inflation, interest rates and employment data in key markets like the US and EU can influence chocolate sales. Strong retail data may support demand-led rallies, while weaker trends can limit upside.

Central bank policy also plays a role. Higher interest rates tend to strengthen the US dollar and reduce investor appetite for risk but may also curb inflationary pressures, stabilising demand for discretionary goods like chocolate. Conversely, looser monetary conditions can support broader commodity buying, including cocoa.

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Cocoa commodity trading strategies

Strategies involve technical and fundamental indicators, and can help traders overcome potential biases in financial markets.

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For more trading strategies visit our trading strategies page.

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