Bitcoin volatility: BVOL falls to 2020 level – is sharp BTC spike next?
Data from BitMEX has shown that its BitMEX 30-day Historical Volatility Index (BVOL) for bitcoin (BTC) fell to under 19% today, signalling a potential bullish trend ahead for the largest cryptocurrency by market capatalisation.
BVOL measures the 30-day historical volatility levels of BTC against the US dollar. The level dipped below 20% on 15 October and reached 18.83% as of 19 October – this is around 80% since its peak in June where volumes were at a high of 85.18%.
Low volumes of trading volatility indicate how much an asset has moved up or down in price, with low volatility signalling market stability. Low volumes also show a lack of activity and interest in buying and selling, a stark contrast to BTC’s rollercoaster prices and high volatility during 2021.
The last time BVOL’s index level neared 19% was around 9 September, where it hit 19.79% from where it pushed back above 20% until recently.
BTC to USD
While past trends can’t outline future predictions, and it is always important for bitcoin investors to carry out their own research before making any investment decision, one Twitter user, Alex Krüger, pointed out how a drop in BVOL has been followed by a spike in price following low volatility levels, twice going up but also once going down.
Every time $BVOL closed below 25, an explosive bitcoin move soon followed. Twice up, once down (Nov 2018). pic.twitter.com/mao9F44K22
— Alex Krüger ???????? (@krugermacro) October 9, 2022
BTC trading volumes
Bitcoin has continued to trade around the $19,000 mark after witnessing short rallies and dips throughout the last 30 days. According to CoinMarketCap, BTC was trading at $19,206 earlier on 19 October, down 1.64% in the last 24 hours.
The cryptocurrency slid on 13 October, dropping from $19,177 at one point that day to a daily low of $18,319.82, but BTC put on a brief rally shortly afterwards to reach highs of $19,880 the following day.
BTC has traded near its resistance level of $20,000 at various points throughout the last month, but the cryptocurrency has been relatively steady and closer to its comfort level of around $19,000 for much of October.
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