Lightning coin price prediction: Is LIGHT a buy or sell?

Volatility in Lightning’s cryptocurrency LIGHT has increased over the past month as the launch of version 2 drove the price to an all-time high, before it dropped back at the end of the month and spiked in early November.  

The Lightning protocol’s coin, which launched earlier this year, has gained as much as 1,300% since early September. 

Now, what is Lightning’s coin all about? Is it still a buy, or is it time to consider selling? 

In this article, we take a look at the project and what factors will shape Lightning price prediction following the strong gains.

Lightning upgrades tokenomics

Lightning (not to be confused with Light DeFi) is a cross-blockchain cryptocurrency incubator that aims to foster blockchain development by providing support to project developers and a safer way for investors to gain exposure to projects. 

“Project Developers and teams who meet our strict acceptance criteria for the Lightning Incubator have the unique opportunity to leverage our hand-selected network of resources, including partnerships with many of the most respected companies in the industry via our Trust-as-a-Service (TaaS) offering,” according to the Lightning website. 

Projects that are incubated through the Lightning Launchpad are verified and audited before launch to help ensure they are safe for investors.

Incubated projects go live in a two-stage initial decentralised exchange (DEX) offering, known as an IDO, which reserves allocations for different tiers of investors. Tiers are based on how many LIGHT coins an investor holds. 

Launched in March 2021 through the PancakeSwap decentralised exchange, the coin runs on the Binance blockchain (note that the Binance platform was banned in the UK earlier this year). 

LIGHT was created with a fee and rebase system, using a dynamic burn rate applied to each buy and sell order, depending on the total supply traded in the current Lightning Cycle. For every 1,000,000 LIGHT traded, the fee moved up incrementally until it reached a cap at 12%, then automatically reset back to the lowest fee. At that point, rebase was triggered to expand supply by 50% of the tokens burned. Transactions between wallets were not taxed, to ensure the usability of the protocol.

On 30 September, Lightning launched version 2 of the lightning crypto coin, changing several aspects of the token. 

LIGHT coins are no longer burned and re-minted. A new system was implemented, called The Equalizer, which provides a deflationary aspect, but the coin supply will no longer decrease. Instead, the coins in circulation will continuously decrease and buyback mechanisms will increase. The maximum supply of LIGHT coins was reset to 100 million, identical to the initial supply when it launched. A portion of the supply is being held in reserve for long-term use to maintain the health of the Lightning ecosystem.

“A new contract will go live that will hold a large amount of Light and stake it alongside the holder’s tokens. The staking rewards from this contract will be used to buy more Light and put it in The Equalizer’s own stake, compounding automatically. This will have a deflationary effect on the protocol as the Light it buys will not leave the contract or be available on the open market,” according to the Lightning blog. 

The fee system has also been changed, replacing the transaction tax from version 1 with a new static tax. Part of the fee goes into the Binance (BNB) reward pool for staking.

Lightning now supports single asset staking and liquidity pair staking. Rewards are paid in BNB, partially from the trading fees and partially from a share of the fees the platform charges projects that launch through Incubated Pools and Open Pools.

The changes to the structure of LIGHT coin required migration of to a new smart contract, so the version 1 token was depreciated and a new token of the same value was airdropped into holders’ wallets.

Lightning price retreats from all-time high

The lightning cryptocurrency price opened at $0.01699 when the coin launched on 15 March. It rallied to $0.6321 on 13 April as the broader markets rallied to fresh highs, then dropped back to $0.07006 on 23 May as cryptocurrency prices crashed. The coin then largely traded between $0.08–$0.10 until early September when the price began to rally. 

Lightning announced the introduction of The Stabilizer system and staking on 7 September, touching off the start of the price rally from $0.08. In the latest lightning token news, single asset staking for BNB went live on 11 October, driving up the price to an all-time high of $1.05 on 13 October. Within the first day of the staking launch, the total value locked (TVL) reached over $40m.

The LIGHT price subsequently dipped to $0.6544 on 19 October, moved back up to $0.9099 on 25 October, fell to $0.5167 on 30 October. Volatility increased as Lightning launched several IDOs in October. Lightning announced that LIGHT liquidity mining went live on 8 November, and it injected another $90,000 into LIGHT staking for BNB rewards. 

But chart analysis shows the price slipped from $0.8652 on 7 November to $0.6357 on 15 November, dropping as low as $0.5331 level on 16 November, when cryptocurrency markets sold off. At the time of writing (17 November), the coin traded at $0.6048.

What is the outlook for the LIGHT price for the rest of 2021 and beyond?

Lightning coin price prediction: Is LIGHT a buy or sell?

Technical analysis from Wallet Investor was bearish at the time of writing. The Lightning crypto price prediction from the algorithm-based forecasting site projected that the coin could average $0.579 at the end of November, then advance to $0.7085 by the end of December 2021.

Its LIGHT prediction saw the price  more than doubling by the end of 2022 to average target price of $1.525, and more than double again to average $3.988 by the end of 2025.

The lightning token price prediction from DigitalCoin estimated that the coin could average $1.02 in 2022, based on historical data. According to its projections, the price could move higher over the longer term to $1.82 by 2025 and $2.68 by 2028, with a peak up to $2.91 during that period.

Based on the long-term lightning (LIGHT/USD) forecast from Price Prediction, the cryptocurrency price could average $0.92 in 2022, up from $0.63 in 2021, and then more than double to $2.59 by 2025. By 2030, the price could average $16.91, the site predicted.

It’s important to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets remain extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin’s price will be in a few hours, and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and algorithm-based forecasters can and do get their LIGHT price predictions wrong.

We recommend that you always do your own research, and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis, and expert opinions and expectations before making any investment decision. Keep in mind that past performance is no guarantee of future returns and never invest more than you can afford to lose.

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