Li Auto stock forecast: fuelling the future of cars
In the past decade, the global electric vehicle (EV) market has grown significantly and is expected to continue accelerating in the years to come. According to a Global Electric Vehicle Market report published by research consultancy MarketsandMarkets, the EV market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.8%, reaching 34.8 million units by 2030.
A namesake of its founder Xiang Li, Li Auto (LI) is an innovator in China’s energy vehicle market. A pioneer in commercialising the extended range of EVs in China, the company caters to families with its products. Li ONE, the company’s first model, is a six-seater premium electric SUV offering smart vehicle solutions.
In a press release on 30 July 2020, the company announced its initial public offering (IPO) on the Nasdaq under the trading symbol ‘LI’, at $11.50 per American Depositary Shares (ADRs). It was touted to be the largest fundraising by a Chinese company on US exchanges since December 2018.
Just over a year later, on 6 August 2021, the company announced its dual primary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. It raised approximately $1.52bn by pricing its shares at HK$118 per offer share.
On 1 January 2022, the company published its EV delivery updates for 2021. It reported having delivered 90,491 of its electric hybrid SUVs, Li ONEs, in all of last year. This represents a 177.4% year-on-year increase for this Chinese-origin EV maker. Li Auto co-founder and president Yanan Shen said:
Will this growth trajectory continue for the year ahead? In this article, we catch up on the latest news and get analyst insights on Li Auto stock price prediction.
Fundamental analysis
On 29 November 2021, the company published its Q3 2021 financial results and reported quarterly total revenues of RMB7.78bn ($1.21bn). Compared with the Q3 2020 revenues of RMB2.51bn, Li Auto has increased its quarterly sales by an impressive 209.96%.
The gross profit for the company was reported to be RMB1.81bn for the three months ended September 2021. Compared with the Q2 2021 gross profit of RMB952.8m for the three months ended June 2021, making for a 90.2% quarter-over-quarter increase.
When going further back and looking at the Q3 2020 gross profits of RMB496.8m, the Q3 2021 profits have soared significantly by 264.8%.
The company also shared its delivery estimates for Q4 2021. At the time, the company had expected its deliveries to be in the range of 30,000 to 32,000 vehicles for the last quarter of the year. Compared with its early estimates, the company exceeded its target by delivering 35,221 Li ONEs for Q4 2021. In December 2021 alone, the company delivered more than 14,000 Li ONEs.
Further boosting Li Auto’s stock analysis, founder and CEO Xiang Li said:
Ramping up operations
Li Auto has been quite aggressive with its expansion plans. Li ONE debuted in the markets in December 2019. However, since then the company has already completed cumulative deliveries of 124,088 vehicles until the end of 2021.
By the end of 2021, the company has 278 servicing centers and 206 retail stores in 102 cities. In addition to this, Li Auto has its authorised body and paint shops operating in more than 200 cities.
In its Q3 2021 financial results, the company also shared its production expansion strategies. It aims to expand its servicing network and sales by way of adding a manufacturing base in Beijing.
The Beijing manufacturing base is expected to be operational in 2023 and has been under construction since it was given the go-ahead in October 2021. This manufacturing base is supposed to have environmental, social and governance driven undertones to its workings and will adopt environmentally friendly production processes with high-reutilisation elements.
Stock price movements
From the close price of $26.29 on 1 October 2021 to the end of year close price of $32.10, the Li Auto stock has rallied by 22% during Q4 2021. However, in 2021, it was significantly affected by the worldwide chip shortage due to the Covid-19 restrictions and disruption of supply chains. Considering the need for chips in EV production is more than that for traditional carmakers, the EV industry as a whole suffered.
The company’s stock closed at its lowest in 2021, at $17.01 on 11 May 2021, having gone to the low of $15.98 during the intraday trading. Recovering 80.77% since then, at the time of writing on 13 January 2022 the stock was at $30.75.
The latest in Li auto stock news is that Macquarie initiated its coverage on two Chinese EV companies in addition to Li Auto, namely Xpeng Motors and Nio. These three stocks were all collectively rising, owing to Macquarie’s ‘outperform’ rating to all three of them.
Future price forecasts
According to the algorithmic forecasting of Wallet Investor as of 13 January 2022, the Li Auto share target price could increase to the range of $55.354 to $56.342 in December 2025, three years from now. Additionally, in its Li Auto share price forecast, it was mentioned that the price could close at $36.641 by December 2022.
Based on the data compiled by Market Beat, out of 12 analysts, 11 rated the LI stock as ‘buy’ and one recommended to ‘hold’. In its 12-month consensus, the LI auto stock predictions target is at $43.80 per share, with the stock price projection varying from a low of $34 to a high of $62. The current analyst price target consensus has an upside of 42.43%, based on the closing price of $30.75 as of 12 December 2022.
Several equities analysts have issued their research reports about the LI stock. Needham & Company has given the stock a ‘buy’ rating and raised their price objective for the stock to $43 from $37, on 7 December 2021. Nomura Instinet also began covering the shares of Li Auto on 4 October 2021, with a ‘buy’ rating and $43.40 price target. Lastly, Zacks Investment Research downgraded its rating for the stock from ‘hold’ to ‘sell’.
When looking at Li Auto share price forecasts, it’s important to bear in mind that forecasts and price targets can be wrong. Analysts’ Li Auto stock predictions are based on making fundamental and technical studies of the stock’s performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
FAQs
Is Li Auto stock a good investment?
According to Market Beat, 11 analysts have given this stock a buy recommendation. As of 29 November 2021, it has reported strong Q3 2021 financial results and delivered impressive numbers for its mid-size SUV Li Ones, which shed a positive light on the company’s future prospects.
However, whether Li Auto stock is a suitable investment depends on your own investment objectives. You should conduct your own research and then make a decision regarding Li Auto stock buy, sell or hold. It’s important to reach your own conclusion on a company’s prospects and the likelihood of achieving analysts’ targets.
Will the Li Auto stock go up?
According to an algorithmic-based application, Wallet Investor, the share price for Li Auto could go as high as $56.85 as of December 2025. However, analysts’ forecasts can be wrong and have been inaccurate in the past.