Прогноз цен на золото: сможет ли металл достичь новых максимумов в 2023 году и далее?

On March 8, 2022, the gold market reached new all-time highs for the first time since August 2020, with the price of the precious metal soaring to $2,043.7 per ounce. This indicated that investors were turning to safe haven assets in response to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

At the end of September 2022, the price of gold fell to about $1,626 per ounce. In early October, the precious metal rose to about $1,725, and by the end of the month, its price fell again to $1,632.59. On November 15, gold soared to $1,778.11 per ounce, and on December 1 - to $1,802.49. On December 13, 20, and 21, 2022, it exceeded $1,825 per ounce, and on January 4, 2023, it rose to about $1,858 per ounce. The price of the precious metal rose throughout January and by the 25th jumped to about $1,950 per ounce, after which it began to decline. At the time of writing, on February 27, 2023, gold was trading at $1,819.05 per ounce.

Gold to US Dollar Chart

 

In 2022, gold came under significant pressure from rising US interest rates. 

Thus, in March, the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) increased the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bp) . On May 4, it was increased by another 50 bp, which happened for the first time since 2000. On June 15, the interest rate was increased by 75 bp, which was the sharpest increase since 1994. At the end of July, the regulator increased the rate by another 75 bp - to 2.25-2.5% per annum. On August 26, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke at the summit in Jackson Hole, where he said that the regulatory body intends to continue raising the rate in order to contain inflation. On September 22, the rate was increased for the third time in a row by 75 bp - to 3-3.25%. On November 2, it was increased for the fourth time by 75 bp - to 4% per annum. On December 14, the Fed raised its key rate again, this time to 4.5% per annum.

On February 1, 2023, the rate was raised by another 25 bps. It is now in the range of 4.5% to 4.75% per annum.

The Fed's interest rate cuts are not expected to begin until 2024.

Will gold continue to rise in price in 2023 and beyond? In this article, we will look at the price forecasts for the precious metal from analysts.

Gold Price Analysis

At the end of 2021, the price of gold was $1,828.6 per ounce, down 2.9% year-on-year as investors cut their positions in the metal in anticipation of higher interest rates.

By January 25, 2022, the price had risen to $1,855 per ounce, and on January 28, it fell back to $1,786.6. Rising bond yields have made precious metals less attractive to investors because they do not pay interest. 

However, tensions between Russia and Ukraine and high unemployment in the US (higher than expected) have led to positive dynamics in gold prices. 

On February 24, the day military actions in Ukraine began, gold rose in price to $1,926.3. In euros, the price of gold reached a historical maximum of €1,768.

At the very end of February, the price of gold fell to $1,887.6 per ounce due to profit taking, and on March 1 it reached a new maximum of $1,943.8 due to the fact that the conflict continued to escalate. On March 8, the precious metal, as we already mentioned, was trading at $2,043.7 per ounce. The rise in prices for gold and other precious metals occurred due to the fact that many investors rebalanced their portfolios and turned to defensive assets.

In the first half of autumn, the news on gold became less positive. The price of the precious metal gradually declined against the backdrop of aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. In September, its price fell to about $1,626 per ounce.

In November, the price of the metal recovered its position to $1,778.11 per ounce. On December 1, 2022, it rose to $1,802.49 per ounce, and in the second half of December - to $1,825. By the end of January 2023, gold rose to approximately $1,950 per ounce, and by today - February 27 - its price fell again to $1,819.05 per ounce.

What do analysts think the outlook for gold is in the coming months and years? Will gold continue to rise? Let's look at the forecasts for the precious metal.

Gold Price Forecast 2023 and Beyond

An analysis by the American bank TD suggests that “in conditions of stagflation shock, gold is the best safe-haven asset.” At the same time, in conditions of high inflation, the role of bonds as a protective asset is questionable, analysts noted.

“The events in Ukraine have significant and obvious implications for commodity prices, which could lead to a persistent inflation shock. At the moment, the direct effects of this conflict on the US economy are small, as trade flows between the countries are small. However, the indirect effects are more relevant, as disruptions in supply chains will have spillover effects on the economy, and inflation is also likely to act as a tax on consumers,” they suggested.

"Geopolitical tensions are unlikely to change the Fed's plans to remove liquidity through quantitative tightening if inflation expectations show signs of easing, but if the shock also affects consumer sentiment, the Fed will have to balance its unemployment and inflation targets," the analysts added.

Heraeus Precious Metals' February 2022 analysis indicated that "monetary tightening is unlikely to have a negative impact on gold."

“Previously, when the Fed started raising the key rate, gold usually rose in price over the next 6-12 months. If we look at the rate hike cycles from the 1980s, which began in 1986, 1999, 2004 and 2015, gold prices rose, showing a gain of 10-20% over the next six months. The only exceptions were 1983, when the price fell by more than 11%, and 1994, when the price fell by 3%,” the experts commented.

"However, core inflation in the US, which excludes food and energy, is also high: in January (2022), it was 6%. This shows that inflation is not only caused by rising commodity prices. Gold looks undervalued compared to real interest rates, and this could support high gold prices even without its role as a safe haven asset in the current geopolitical tensions," the experts noted.

An analyst at the American broker Zaner noted: “The situation in Ukraine continues to attract investments in gold ETFs... Long positions in gold have a chance to become the highest since July 2020. If we talk about the future, even a temporary lull could lead to significant falls in gold and silver.”

Analysts at Schroder Investment Management Australia were bullish on gold in early March 2022. On March 2, the company's manager, James Luke, wrote that "prior to the escalation of the conflict, we had already seen signs of institutional demand for gold as a hedging instrument ."

Luke added: “The potential for stagflation is highly likely (i.e. low growth and high or rising inflation) and the likelihood that we will be in a prolonged financial repression with negative real interest rates is also high. This is a very positive macro backdrop for gold… given the few other options for portfolio diversification, we believe gold will be the safe haven option in the coming years.”

The Fitch rating agency predicts that the price of gold in 2023 will be $1,600 per ounce. Fitch believes that the main factor in changing the price of gold is the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The price is also influenced by the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, the yield on Treasury bonds and the strengthening of the dollar, the agency notes.

The APECON Economic Forecasting Agency predicts that by the end of March 2023, gold will fall in price to $1,726 per ounce, and by the end of 2023, it will cost about $1,777 per ounce. By the end of 2024, the precious metal will rise in price to $1,865 per ounce, and by the end of 2025, to $1,959 per ounce. By the end of 2026, according to the agency's forecast, gold will reach a new price maximum of $2,407 per ounce, and in March 2027, its cost will be $2,419 per ounce.

It is too early to make any serious predictions for gold in 2030 at this time.

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Before making any investment decisions, we recommend that you conduct your own research on the selected assets, taking into account the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis data , as well as expert opinions.

The current silver price forecast can be found here.

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