Kyle Rodda

Risk-off sentiment returns to markets as tensions in the Middle East escalate, equities drop, oil surges, and gold attracts safe haven flows

US inflation data and US-China trade talks in focus as markets recover from the Trump-Musk fallout

US inflation is expected to have risen slightly in May but the data could be distorted by tariffs

The Q1 2025 earnings season for the Magnificent Seven—Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Tesla—revealed a shared strategic emphasis on artificial intelligence, infrastructure investment, supply chain resilience, and capital discipline.

Markets wrapped up May on a cautious note, with risk appetite faltering as volatility returned to equities and a heavy macro calendar looms.

As we enter a pivotal week for US macroeconomic data, all eyes turn to Friday’s release of the May Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report.

Oil price bounces back on Monday despite OPEC+ announcing supply increase

Markets are increasingly confident that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut interest rates at its 20 May policy meeting, with cash rates futures pricing as of May 19th suggesting a 96% chance of a 25 basis point reduction.

Oil prices are drifting lower as global markets contend with a classic supply-demand double whammy. A confluence of weaker demand—driven by US trade policy—and a surge in supply from OPEC and potentially Iran, is exerting sustained downward pressure on crude benchmarks.

Risk assets are pushing higher as investor optimism builds around the prospect of easing trade tensions between the US and key global partners.