Saipem stock forecast: Longtail contract, Q1 2026 results
Saipem is an Italian energy services company. In Q1 2026, it reported €434m in adjusted EBITDA and received a $150m notice for ExxonMobil Guyana’s Longtail project. Explore third-party SPM price targets and technical analysis. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Saipem S.p.A. (SPM) is trading at €4.58 in early European trading as of 10:16am UTC on 13 May 2026, within an intraday range of €4.43–€4.59. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Sentiment around the stock has been supported by recent contract wins and solid quarterly results. Saipem reported Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA of €434m, up 24% year on year on flat revenue of €3.5bn, while reaffirming full-year guidance of approximately €15.5bn in revenue and €1.9bn in adjusted EBITDA (Saipem, 21 April 2026). The company also received a $150m Limited Notice to Proceed from ExxonMobil Guyana on 21 April 2026 for the Longtail offshore EPCI project, with the full contract potentially valued at $750m–$1.5bn (Saipem, 21 April 2026). Separately, Saipem's Annual General Shareholders' Meeting took place on 12 May 2026, the session immediately preceding today's trading (Saipem, 12 May 2026).
Longtail deal and Q1 results frame third-party Saipem outlook
As of 13 May 2026, third-party Saipem stock predictions have shifted since the company's Q1 2026 results on 21 April 2026, with several brokers raising price targets amid contract momentum and stronger-than-expected margins.
RBC Capital (sector perform, target raised)
RBC Capital analyst Victoria McCulloch raised her 12-month price target on Saipem to €5, from €4.40, while maintaining a Sector Perform rating. The revision followed the Q1 2026 results, with McCulloch citing improved earnings visibility and sustained order intake as the basis for the higher target (TipRanks, 27 April 2026).
Citi (buy, target sharply raised)
Citi analyst Kate O'Sullivan lifted her 12-month price target on Saipem to €5.10, from €3.30, while retaining a Buy rating. The 55% increase reflects Citi's reassessment of margin trajectory and backlog quality after the Q1 2026 beat, with the updated figure among the highest single-analyst targets in the current coverage period (TipRanks, 24 April 2026).
Jefferies (buy, high-end target)
Jefferies analyst Mark Wilson maintained a Buy rating on Saipem and set a 12-month price target of €6, the highest in the tracked broker universe for this period. Wilson's note cited confidence in the company's expanding offshore backlog and long-cycle contract awards as supporting the premium valuation (The Globe and Mail, 24 April 2026 2026).
Morgan Stanley (overweight, target raised)
Morgan Stanley raised its 12-month price target on Saipem to €4.90, from €3.80, and kept an Overweight rating, as part of a broader 20% upward revision to European energy services price targets. The bank cited continued order momentum and improving margin visibility across the sector as the rationale for the higher target (TipRanks, 11 May 2026).
Simply Wall St (consensus update)
Simply Wall St, drawing on S&P Global Market Intelligence data, reported that the average 12-month analyst price target for Saipem rose 13% to €4.53, from €4.03, as of 10 May 2026. The figure represents the mean across 17 analysts and sat 7.3% above the then-prevailing closing price. The platform noted that the consensus revision followed post-earnings target upgrades across multiple covering institutions (Simply Wall St, 10 May 2026).
Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
SPM stock price: Technical overview
The SPM stock price trades at €4.58 as of 10:16am UTC on 13 May 2026, holding above its short- and medium-term moving average stack. The daily 20/50/100/200-day simple moving averages sit at approximately €4.35 / €3.92 / €3.42 / €2.89, with a 20-over-50 alignment intact across both the simple and exponential moving average families. The Hull moving average (9) at €4.41 and the volume-weighted moving average (20) at €4.31 add to the near-term support cluster below the current price.
Momentum indicators tracked by TradingView remain broadly constructive. The 14-day relative strength index reads 63.6, placing it in the upper-neutral zone, while the average directional index (14) at 28.9 may be interpreted as a directional trend. The MACD level (12, 26) at 0.17 is currently in positive territory, in line with the current upward bias shown by the indicator set.
On the topside, the classic R1 pivot at €4.99 is the nearest reference above the last price. A daily close above that level could put the R2 level at €5.38 in view. To the downside, the classic pivot point at €4.41 offers initial support, with the 50-day SMA at €3.92 and S1 at €4.02 marking the next notable reference levels if the pivot gives way (TradingView, 13 May 2026).
This is technical analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.
Saipem share price history (2024–2026)
SPM’s stock price opened May 2024 around €2.20 and spent much of mid-2024 trading in a narrow €2.10–€2.45 band. This marked a period of consolidation as oil services companies navigated mixed energy demand signals and cautious capital spending across the sector.
A clearer downtrend emerged from late July 2024, with the stock slipping from around €2.43 on 23 July to a low close of €1.80 on 10 September 2024, coinciding with broader risk-off sentiment and softer crude oil prices. SPM then recovered gradually through the autumn, closing the year at €2.51 on 30 December 2024 – up roughly 14% from those September lows.
2025 began with the stock near €2.72 in early January before drifting lower through spring. The sharpest move came in April 2025, when SPM fell from around €2.15 on 2 April to a two-year closing low of €1.62 on 9 April, a period that coincided with escalating US tariff announcements that unsettled global markets. A recovery took hold from late April, and SPM closed 2025 at €2.42.
The 2026 uptrend has been the most decisive stretch in the two-year window. SPM climbed from €2.50 at the start of January to €4.80 by early April, supported by strong contract awards and solid quarterly results. SPM closed at €4.60 on 13 May 2026, approximately 84% up year on year and 83% higher year to date.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Share prices are indicative and may differ from live market prices.
SPM earnings: Q1 2026 results
Saipem reported its Q1 2026 results on 21 April 2026, posting revenue of approximately €3.5bn and adjusted EBITDA of €434m, a 24% increase year on year, while net profit came in ahead of analyst expectations (Saipem, 21 April 2026). The company reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance, targeting revenue of approximately €15.5bn and adjusted EBITDA of approximately €1.9bn, with management citing a strong and growing backlog as the basis for maintaining those targets (Investing.com, 22 April 2026).
The results were accompanied by the announcement of a $150m Limited Notice to Proceed from ExxonMobil Guyana for the Longtail offshore EPCI project, with the full contract potentially valued at $750m–$1.5bn (Offshore Technology, 22 April 2026). Saipem's next scheduled financial update is its H1 2026 interim results, expected in late July 2026, according to the company's published corporate events calendar (Saipem, 13 May 2026).
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Saipem (SPM): Capital.com analyst view
Saipem’s price performance over the past year reflects a pronounced re-rating, with the stock climbing from around €1.62 in early April 2025 to trade above €4.58 in May 2026. The move has been supported by a sustained run of offshore contract wins, improving margin delivery, and renewed investor interest in energy services names. The Q1 2026 results, which showed adjusted EBITDA up 24% year on year alongside reaffirmed full-year guidance of approximately €1.9bn, added further weight to the more constructive reading.
That said, the scale of the rally means the stock now trades at a significant premium to historical valuation norms, with a forward P/E ratio that sits well above the broader energy services sector average. Any earnings miss, contract delay, or softening in oil and gas capital expenditure could weigh on sentiment.
The proposed combination with Subsea 7 remains a potential catalyst that some analysts view as transformative for scale and margin, while others flag integration risk and dilution concerns as credible headwinds. Macro conditions also cut both ways: a continued softening of the US dollar and elevated offshore activity budgets among national oil companies may support order flow, whereas a demand-driven slide in crude prices or a broader risk-off move could dampen the sector outlook.
Capital.com’s client sentiment for Saipem CFDs
As of 13 May 2026, Capital.com client positioning in Saipem CFDs shows 90.9% buyers compared with 9.1% sellers, putting buyers ahead by 81.8 percentage points. This indicates a strongly long-skewed positioning snapshot among Capital.com clients at the time of capture, though analyst views differ and may change with new data or market conditions.
Summary – Saipem 2026
- SPM trades at €4.58 as of 10:16am UTC on 13 May 2026, up roughly 83% year to date and 84% year on year, after recovering from a two-year low of €1.62 in April 2025.
- Key price drivers include Saipem’s offshore contract backlog, the proposed Subsea 7 merger, oil and gas capital expenditure trends, and broader energy services sector sentiment. Macro conditions and crude price direction cut both ways.
- Q1 2026 results showed adjusted EBITDA up 24% year on year. Saipem also received a $150m Limited Notice to Proceed from ExxonMobil Guyana and held its Annual General Meeting on 12 May 2026.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
FAQ
Who owns the most Saipem stock?
Saipem’s shareholder base includes a mix of strategic and institutional investors. The largest shareholders have historically included Eni and CDP Equity, reflecting Saipem’s long-standing links to Italy’s energy and infrastructure sectors. Publicly traded shares are also held by institutional and retail investors. Ownership can change over time, so traders should check Saipem’s latest shareholder disclosures and regulatory filings for the most current breakdown.
What is the five-year Saipem share price forecast?
Five-year SPM stock forecasts are uncertain and should be treated as third-party estimates rather than reliable predictions. Analyst targets in the article focus mainly on 12-month views, with recent broker targets ranging from €4.90–€6 and a wider consensus mean of €4.53. Over a longer horizon, Saipem’s share price may depend on contract execution, margins, offshore energy spending, the proposed Subsea 7 combination, and wider market conditions.
Is Saipem a good stock to buy?
Whether Saipem is a good stock to buy depends on individual objectives, risk tolerance, time horizon, and view of the energy services sector. The company has reported stronger adjusted EBITDA, reaffirmed 2026 guidance, and continued to win offshore contracts. However, the share price has already risen sharply, and risks include contract delays, earnings misses, integration concerns, and shifts in oil and gas capital expenditure. This article doesn’t provide investment advice.
Could Saipem stock go up or down?
Saipem stock could move in either direction. Positive drivers may include further contract awards, stronger margins, successful execution of the proposed Subsea 7 combination, and supportive offshore spending. Downside risks include weaker crude prices, lower sector demand, project delays, cost pressure, or a broader risk-off move in equity markets. Technical indicators may show current momentum, but they don’t guarantee future price direction. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Should I invest in Saipem stock?
Only you can decide whether Saipem stock fits your portfolio, based on your financial situation, objectives, and appetite for risk. The article highlights recent earnings momentum, contract wins, and analyst upgrades, but also notes valuation, execution, macroeconomic, and sector risks. Before making any decision, consider doing your own research, reviewing company filings, and seeking independent professional advice where appropriate. This content is for information only and is not financial advice.
Can I trade Saipem CFDs on Capital.com?
Yes, you can trade Saipem CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.