US natgas falls after EIA storage data
By Vedika Thorat
Nov 13 (Reuters) - US natural gas futures fell 3% on Friday as the weekly storage build sat well above the five-year average for the week despite missing analysts' expectations.
Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange traded 10.5 cents, or 3.1%, lower at $3.24 per million British thermal units at 12:19 p.m. ET. The contract was on track for a third consecutive weekly gain and was up about 7.3% for the week.
"The storage number was definitely a bullish number, but the market's reaction going the other way seems to suggest that the inside track of the market wasn't that surprised," Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, said.
The US Energy Information Administration reported a 61-bcf storage build for the week ended November 6, below analyst expectations that had pointed to an injection of 66 bcf but above the five-year average for the week of 40 bcf. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
A smaller-than-expected storage build is typically supportive for natural gas prices because it suggests tighter supply-demand balances.
"This market is drifting back down and is likely to stay within the boundaries of yesterday's price parameters as this week winds down," Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note. "Some of today's pullback appears related to a lift in production and some softening in export activity during the past couple of sessions that had prompted much of the past week's buying interest."
Financial firm LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 121.7 bcfd this week to 121.0 bcfd next week.
Average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export plants fell to 18.1 bcfd so far in November, down from 18.5 bcfd in October.
LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states fell to 112.4 bcfd so far in November from 113.4 bcfd in October and the monthly record high of 115 bcfd in August.
Benchmark Dutch and British wholesale gas prices rose on Friday on Norwegian maintenance and as tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz dampened hopes for a resolution to the US-Iran war. NG/EU
Week ended Nov 6 Actuals | Week ended Oct 30 Actual | Year ago Nov 6 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Nov 6 | ||
US weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +61 | +77 | +44 | +40 | |
US total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,862 | 3,801 | 3,954 | 3,787 | |
US total storage versus 5-year average | +2.0% | +1.4% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 3.34 | 3.28 | 4.47 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) | 32.02 | 29.21 | 10.40 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) | 31.37 | 31.33 | 11.25 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
LSEG US Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Total Two-Week Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
US GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 295 | 286 | 203 | 255 | 254 |
US GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 4 | 5 | 20 | 10 | 8 |
US GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 299 | 291 | 223 | 265 | 262 |
LSEG US Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts, and US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Monthly and Annual Pipeline Imports and Exports | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | |
US Supply (bcfd) | |||||
US Lower 48 Dry Production | 113.0 | 112.7 | 113.8 | 109.3 | 106.8 |
US Imports from Canada | 8.4 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 8.6 |
US LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total US Supply | 121.4 | 120.3 | 121.0 | 118.1 | 115.4 |
US Demand (bcfd) | |||||
US Exports to Canada | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.8 |
US Exports to Mexico | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 6.6 |
US LNG Export Feedgas | 19.7 | 17.8 | 18.9 | 18.2 | 16.0 |
US Commercial | 9.9 | 13.3 | 12.9 | 11.5 | 9.4 |
US Residential | 12.6 | 19.1 | 18.5 | 17.4 | 13.4 |
US Power Plant | 32.5 | 30.0 | 29.4 | 30.8 | 36.0 |
US Industrial | 23.6 | 24.5 | 24.2 | 24.0 | 23.5 |
US Plant Fuel | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.6 |
US Pipe Distribution | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
US Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Total US Consumption | 86.6 | 95.1 | 93.2 | 93.2 | 91.6 |
Total US Demand | 115.0 | 121.7 | 121.0 | 120.7 | 117.0 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
US Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2027 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2027 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 % of Normal Actual | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 79 | 80 | 83 | 76 | 74 |
Jan-Jul | 76 | 75 | 90 | 78 | 76 |
Oct-Sep | 76 | 76 | 93 | 80 | 77 |
US weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Nov 13 | Week ended Nov 6 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Wind | 9 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 42 | 42 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 16 | 15 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 19 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
SNL US Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.79 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York | 1.35 | 1.35 | 3.38 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate | 3.45 | 3.45 | 3.84 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Enbridge South (formerly Dominion South) | 1.64 | 1.64 | 3.28 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate | 2.45 | 2.45 | 3.48 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate | 1.94 | 1.94 | 4.58 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.89 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub | 2.14 | 2.14 | 0.26 | 1.03 | 2.88 |
AECO | 1.94 | 1.36 | 1.56 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) US Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England | 70.54 | 56.30 | 65.85 | 77.12 | 61.67 |
PJM West | 153.47 | 121.21 | 59.39 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) | 41.29 | 43.33 | 43.45 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde | 26.66 | 25.12 | 34.57 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) | 28.43 | 33.43 | 38.42 | 28.44 | 53.02 |