EMERGING MARKETS-Latam shares gain, FX mixed as investors weigh Mexico, Brazil data
By Sudeshna Ghoshal and Ragini Mathur
Nov 9 (Reuters) - Most Latin American stocks rose on Monday, while currencies were mixed, as investors assessed data from the region's biggest economies and a rebound in metals supported commodity-linked markets.
The Mexican peso was little changed against the dollar after data showed headline inflation accelerated to 3.75% year-on-year, above expectations of 3.65%. Core inflation rose to 3.80%, also topping forecasts of 3.78%.
The figures reinforced expectations that the Bank of Mexico will keep its benchmark rate unchanged for an extended period after surprising markets last week with a 25-basis-point cut to 6.25%.
Mexican equities .MXX were up 0.9%.
"Forecasting what the central bank will make of this data is tricky given the clear dovish bias on the Board," said William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics.
"But at the very least, it seems highly unlikely that Banxico will break its forward guidance and opt for more interest rate cuts."
In Brazil, the region's largest economy, inflation as measured by the IGP-DI price index rose 1.15% in October, slowing from a 1.50% gain in September.
Brazil's central bank held rates steady last week as it grappled with a worsening inflation outlook following President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's reelection. Lula on Sunday reaffirmed his commitment to fiscal responsibility but did not announce new measures to address concerns over public finances and rising debt.
The real fell 0.2%, while local stocks .BVSP rose 0.8%. CSN CSNA3.SA was among the top performers after closing a deal to sell its cement unit to China's Huaxin.
MSCI's Latin American currency index .MILA00000CUS was flat, while the regional equities index .MILA00000PUS gained 0.9%.
Oil prices, a key driver of broader markets this year, slid nearly 5%. On Sunday, US President Donald Trump downplayed the likelihood of renewed strikes on Iran, though attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz kept supply concerns in focus.
Lower oil prices helped stabilize gold, which rose 1% as inflation jitters eased, while copper also rebounded. The Peruvian sol and Chilean peso rose 0.9% and 0.7%, respectively, supported by gains in their key export metals.
Investors were also awaiting Colombia's consumer inflation data later in the day. The Colombian peso fell 0.9%.
Elsewhere, Paraguayan President Pedro Alliana nominated economist Jorge Schreiner to head the central bank following a crisis triggered by the intervention in digital bank ueno.
The intervention and collapse led to the removal of former central bank chief Carlos Carvallo and Paraguay's former President Santiago Peña, while the country's currency and bonds suffered sharp losses last week.
"We do not expect that political volatility to translate into substantial policy changes," said Geronimo Mansutti, senior economist at Tellimer Research.
"Contagion risk seems largely contained so far (the rest of the financial system appears in good health), and as long as the damage doesn’t spread, ueno’s collapse should be quite manageable."
Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:
Stock indexes | Latest | Daily % change |
MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF | 1525.94 | 1.57 |
MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS | 2832.22 | 0.86 |
Brazil Bovespa .BVSP | 169764.75 | 0.75 |
Mexico IPC .MXX | 72064.58 | 0.94 |
Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP | 2486.03 | 0.03 |
Currencies | Latest | Daily % change |
Brazil real | 5.5167 | -0.19 |
Mexico peso | 18.5984 | 0.05 |
Chile peso | 968.72 | 0.72 |
Colombia peso | 3269.61 | -0.9 |
Peru sol | 3.4099 | 0.89 |
Argentina peso (interbank) | 1,544.5 | 0.23 |
Argentina peso (parallel) | 1,535.0 | 1.6 |