US natgas prices fall 6% to two-month low on milder weather forecasts
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, Oct 23 (Reuters) - US natural gas futures fell about 6% to a two-month low on Friday on forecasts for milder weather and lower demand over the next week than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 15.6 cents, or 6%, to settle at $2.64 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since August 6. The $2.64 settle on August 6 was the lowest close since late April.
That also put the front-month down about 15% for the week and left the contract in technically oversold territory for a third day in a row for the first time since July.
In a sign the market is not too worried about supply meeting demand in coming months, futures for calendar 2027 fell to an almost five-year low of $3.08 per mmBtu, while the 12-month futures strip dropped to a two-year low of $2.90.
OUTPUT REBOUNDS AS STORAGE CUSHION THINS
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states slid to 111.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from record highs of 113.3 bcfd in both August and September.
On a daily basis, output has recovered, averaging about 113.3 bcfd over the past week.
Record output and mild spring weather earlier this year has allowed energy firms to keep the amount of gas in inventory above the five-year (2021-2025) average since March, reaching a high of 7.7% above normal in April.
But hotter-than-normal weather over the summer forced energy firms to pull lots of gas out of storage to fuel power plants needed to keep air conditioners humming, cutting the inventory surplus. About 40% of US power generation comes from gas-fired plants.
The amount of gas in storage likely fell to 0.7% above normal during the week ended October 23, down from 1.0% above normal in the previous week, according to analyst estimates ahead of next Thursday's weekly federal inventory report. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Looking ahead, meteorologists predicted weather across the country would remain mostly milder than normal through November 7, which should keep heating demand low in coming weeks.
Still, with seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 106.7 bcfd this week to 107.3 bcfd next week and 112.5 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.
Average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export plants rose to 18.2 bcfd so far in October, up from 17.9 bcfd in September. That is still below the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
Week ended Oct 23 Forecast | Week ended Oct 16 Actual | Year ago Oct 23 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Oct 23 | ||
US weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +68 | +77 | +75 | +77 | |
US total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,712 | 3,644 | 3,871 | 3,686 | |
US total storage versus 5-year average | +0.7% | +1.0% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 2.71 | 2.80 | 3.35 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) | 30.76 | 29.49 | 10.88 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) | 30.63 | 30.06 | 11.11 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
LSEG US Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Total Two-Week Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
US GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 153 | 159 | 167 | 163 | 192 |
US GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 26 | 26 | 26 | 35 | 23 |
US GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 179 | 185 | 193 | 198 | 215 |
LSEG US Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts, and US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Monthly and Annual Pipeline Imports and Exports | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | |
US Supply (bcfd) | |||||
US Lower 48 Dry Production | 110.2 | 113.4 | 113.3 | 106.5 | 106.8 |
US Imports from Canada | 7.2 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 8.6 |
US LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total US Supply | 117.3 | 120.2 | 120.7 | 114.0 | 115.4 |
US Demand (bcfd) | |||||
US Exports to Canada | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.8 |
US Exports to Mexico | 7.1 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 6.6 |
US LNG Export Feedgas | 18.4 | 19.4 | 19.4 | 16.6 | 16.0 |
US Commercial | 6.1 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 9.4 |
US Residential | 5.3 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 13.4 |
US Power Plant | 34.8 | 31.9 | 31.0 | 33.4 | 36.0 |
US Industrial | 22.3 | 23.2 | 23.0 | 22.7 | 23.5 |
US Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 |
US Pipe Distribution | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.5 |
US Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Total US Consumption | 76.2 | 78.5 | 78.5 | 79.1 | 91.6 |
Total US Demand | 103.8 | 106.7 | 107.3 | 104.7 | 117.0 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
US Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2027 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2027 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 % of Normal Actual | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 88 | 89 | 83 | 76 | 74 |
Jan-Jul | 83 | 83 | 90 | 78 | 76 |
Oct-Sep | 82 | 82 | 93 | 80 | 77 |
US weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Oct 23 | Week ended Oct 16 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Wind | 11 | 15 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 39 | 39 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 16 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 19 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
SNL US Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 2.95 | 3.01 | 3.19 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York | 1.56 | 1.78 | 2.26 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate | 3.66 | 3.74 | 3.58 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Enbridge South (formerly Dominion South) | 1.54 | 1.81 | 2.12 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate | 2.44 | 2.51 | 2.92 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate | 1.74 | 1.98 | 2.51 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate | 3.76 | 3.87 | 3.22 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub | 1.70 | 1.76 | 0.00 | 1.03 | 2.88 |
AECO | 1.30 | 1.32 | 0.95 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) US Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England | 42.08 | 45.00 | 44.36 | 77.12 | 61.67 |
PJM West | 54.30 | 68.11 | 57.52 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) | 66.63 | 67.27 | 45.49 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde | 21.57 | 36.00 | 26.78 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) | 28.09 | 39.57 | 27.16 | 28.44 | 53.02 |