US natgas futures rise 2% after smaller EIA storage build, drop in output
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, Oct 15 (Reuters) - US natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Thursday on a smaller-than-expected storage build, a drop in daily output to a five-month low and forecasts for higher demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 6.4 cents, or 2%, to $3.262 per million British thermal units.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms added a smaller-than-expected 67 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended October 9.
That compares with the 76-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and an increase of 80 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2021-2025) average increase of 90 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Analysts had predicted last week's storage injection would be smaller than usual due to recent declines in daily output.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states slid from record highs of 113.3 bcfd in August and September to 110.7 bcfd so far in October.
That drop in output so far in October was due to a combination of Gulf of Mexico shut-ins from Hurricane Isaias and force majeure incidents and other problems on pipelines in Kentucky, Texas, West Virginia and elsewhere in recent weeks.
On a daily basis, output was on track to drop to a five-month low of 108.8 bcfd due in part to another pipeline force majeure in West Virginia on Wednesday.
Record output and mild spring weather earlier this year allowed energy firms to keep the amount of gas in inventory above the five-year (2021-2025) average since March, reaching a high of 7.7% above normal in April.
Energy firms had to pull lots of gas out of storage during the hot summer months to fuel power plants needed to keep air conditioners humming, cutting the inventory surplus. About 40% of US power generation comes from gas-fired plants.
Looking forward, meteorologists predicted that weather across the country would remain mostly milder than normal through October 30, which should keep both heating and cooling demand low.
With seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 104.7 bcfd this week to 106.0 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
Average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export plants fell to 17.6 bcfd so far in October, down from 17.9 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
Week ended Oct 9 Actual | Week ended Oct 2 Actual | Year ago Oct 9 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Oct 9 | ||
US weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +67 | +85 | +80 | +90 | |
US total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,567 | 3,500 | 3,710 | 3,522 | |
US total storage versus 5-year average | +1.3% | +2.0% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 3.25 | 3.20 | 3.35 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) | 28.03 | 28.43 | 10.88 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) | 26.39 | 26.27 | 11.11 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
LSEG US Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Total Two-Week Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
US GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 126 | 133 | 116 | 128 | 156 |
US GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 39 | 47 | 44 | 47 | 31 |
US GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 165 | 169 | 160 | 175 | 186 |
LSEG US Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts, and US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Monthly and Annual Pipeline Imports and Exports | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | |
US Supply (bcfd) | |||||
US Lower 48 Dry Production | 111.1 | 109.9 | 110.9 | 106.5 | 106.8 |
US Imports from Canada | 7.0 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 8.6 |
US LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total US Supply | 118.1 | 117.0 | 118.4 | 114.0 | 115.4 |
US Demand (bcfd) | |||||
US Exports to Canada | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.8 |
US Exports to Mexico | 7.5 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 6.6 |
US LNG Export Feedgas | 17.0 | 18.4 | 18.5 | 16.6 | 16.0 |
US Commercial | 5.8 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 9.4 |
US Residential | 5.1 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 13.4 |
US Power Plant | 38.7 | 35.7 | 31.1 | 33.4 | 36.0 |
US Industrial | 22.4 | 22.3 | 23.2 | 22.7 | 23.5 |
US Plant Fuel | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 |
US Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.5 |
US Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Total US Consumption | 79.8 | 77.0 | 77.9 | 79.1 | 91.6 |
Total US Demand | 106.5 | 104.7 | 106.0 | 104.7 | 117.0 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
US Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2027 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2027 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 % of Normal Actual | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 90 | 91 | 83 | 76 | 74 |
Jan-Jul | 85 | 86 | 90 | 78 | 76 |
Oct-Sep | 85 | 86 | 93 | 80 | 77 |
US weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Oct 16 | Week ended Oct 9 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Wind | 14 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 7 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 39 | 44 | 40 | 42 | 41 |
Coal | 16 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 17 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
SNL US Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub | 3.22 | 3.14 | 3.19 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York | 1.52 | 1.37 | 2.26 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate | 3.69 | 3.63 | 3.58 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Enbridge South (formerly Dominion South) | 1.44 | 1.16 | 2.12 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate | 2.71 | 2.65 | 2.92 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate | 1.65 | 1.70 | 2.51 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate | 3.67 | 3.40 | 3.22 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub | 1.80 | 1.66 | 0.00 | 1.03 | 2.88 |
AECO | 1.35 | 1.33 | 0.95 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) US Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England | 42.08 | 45.00 | 44.36 | 77.12 | 61.67 |
PJM West | 82.98 | 265.40 | 57.52 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) | 52.54 | 54.11 | 45.49 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde | 24.80 | 26.94 | 26.78 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
South Path-15 (SP-15) | 29.76 | 26.44 | 27.16 | 28.44 | 53.02 |