Major brokerages expect Fed to hold rates ahead of policy meeting
Oct 28 (Reuters) - Global brokerages expect the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, with BofA Global Research one of the only outliers among Wall Street majors.
The Fed's October decision is in focus ahead of the midterm elections, as energy prices and tariffs stoke cost-of-living concerns.
The current interest rate stands in the 3.75%-4% range.
Interest-rate futures are pricing in a roughly 9.4% chance of a rate increase at the October meeting and an 86.2% probability of a move in December, according to CME's FedWatch data.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2026:
Brokerage | Total hikes in 2026 | No. of hikes in 2026 | Fed funds rate |
BofA Global Research | 50 bps of hikes | 2 (October and December) | 4.25%-4.50% |
Goldman Sachs | 25 bp rate hike | 1 (December) | 4.00%-4.25% |
J.P.Morgan | 25 bp rate hike | 1 (December) | 4.00%-4.25% |
Nomura | 25 bp rate hike | 1 (December) | 4.00%-4.25% |
HSBC | 25 bp rate hike | 1 (December) | 4.00%-4.25% |
Barclays | 25 bp rate hike | 1 (December) | 4.00%-4.25% |
Deutsche Bank | 25 bp rate hike | 1 (December) | 4.00%-4.25% |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 25 bp rate hike | 1 (December) | 4.00%-4.25% |
UBS Global Research | 25 bp rate hike | 1 (December) | 4.00%-4.25% |
Morgan Stanley | 25 bp rate hike | 1 (December) | 4.00%-4.25% |
Macquarie | 25 bp rate hike | 1 (December) | 4.00%-4.25% |
Standard Chartered | 25 bp rate hike | 1 (December) | 4.00%-4.25% |
Citigroup | 25 bp rate hike | 1 (December) | 4.00%-4.25% |