Copper favourite at LME Seminar to see higher prices

By Eric Onstad

LONDON, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Copper was the overwhelming top choice for the industrial metal with the best outlook for higher prices, attendees at a London Metal Exchange event said on Monday.

Copper, used in power and construction, got 50% of votes in an informal poll at the LME Seminar on which base metal is likely to have most upside.

The poll took place after a succession of analysts presented their cases for each of the six base metals traded on the LME plus steel.

Tin came in second place at 27%, while aluminium and nickel followed at 14% and 7% respectively.

Graeme Train, head of metals and minerals analysis at Trafigura, said copper had a complex outlook, with AI data centres adding to demand, but that this could falter.

"We've upgraded our numbers," he said, adding copper demand from data centres could add "another million tons to that quite easily, over the next five years, or maybe even two".

But there were questions about whether AI companies will meet their forecasts for expanding data centres, he said.

TIN TOP PERFORMER SO FAR IN 2026

LME tin has been the top-performing LME metal so far this year, surging by 20%, with copper rising 16%. Nickel has been the worst, falling by 9%, while aluminium has been flat.

Disruptions in tin output have supported prices and are expected to continue, said Tom Langston, senior market analyst at the International Tin Association.

"A meaningful return to previous production levels remains elusive, and ultimately, supply continues to be both geographically concentrated and vulnerable to policy disruption."

Jorge Vazquez of consultancy Harbor Aluminum forecast that prices would rise in the first half of next year.

"We believe the prices today are low," he said.

Analyst Amy Gower at Morgan Stanley said supply growth in nickel from top producer Indonesia may be dampened by government restrictions, while shortages of power and water may also curb output.

"Now I'm not saying that demand is fantastic. But I do think that nickel was at the bottom of that (price) range... so the risk-reward is skewed higher from here," she said.