CEE MARKETS-FX gains on after US midterms, zloty up before rates decision

By Reuters News

- Central European currencies firmed on Wednesday, as US midterm election results pressured the dollar, with the zloty recovering from multi-year lows ahead of the Polish central bank's rates decision, which analysts expect to be steady.

  • A sweeping Democratic victory in the midterm elections sent the dollar tumbling, giving emerging market currencies such as those in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) some breathing room

  • ING analysts said the election results were already well priced, thus limiting implications for emerging Europe

  • "A weaker US dollar and lower 10-year Treasury yields should further support the general sense of relief seen in recent days, driven by headlines regarding US-Iran negotiations and lower energy prices," ING added

  • The trajectory of the conflict remains unclear, but market signals of continued relief should help push CEE rates lower and ease pressure on regional currencies, ING said

  • The National Bank of Poland will keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, according to a vast majority of respondents polled by Reuters, unless inflation is projected to remain higher for longer

  • By 1114 GMT the Polish zloty firmed 0.16% against the euro to 4.3980

  • The implications of the US results could hamper further firming for the dollar and boost the zloty and other emerging market currencies, Polish state-run development bank BGK said

  • Prime Minister Donald Tusk signed off on the appointment of four members of NBP's management board on Tuesday — removing the risk of a deadlock — which analysts saw as favourable for the zloty

  • The Czech crown gained 0.14% and traded at 24.3050 per euro

  • Czech headline inflation slowed a touch in October, preliminary data showed on Wednesday, although bets on an interest rate hike by the Czech National Bank on Thursday remain with a pick-up in price growth still expected

  • "The persistently elevated growth in services prices in particular signals to the CNB that domestic factors continue to exert upward pressure on inflation, warranting a restrictive monetary policy stance," Erste Bank said

  • "Today’s data do not change our view on the future path of CNB interest rates," Erste Bank added

  • Elsewhere, the Hungarian forint was up 0.28% to 363.40 per euro


CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1214 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2026

Czech crown

24.3050

24.3380

+0.14%

-0.57%

Hungarian forint

363.4000

364.4000

+0.28%

+5.77%

Polish zloty

4.3980

4.4110

+0.30%

-4.15%

Romanian leu

5.3460

5.3435

-0.05%

-4.71%

Serbian dinar

117.5100

117.6400

+0.11%

-0.18%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2026

Budapest

.BUX

148997.45

146075.44

+2.00%

+34.19%

Warsaw

.WIG20

4199.93

4138.60

+1.48%

+31.91%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

4.2798

-0.0563

+123bps

-9bps

Czech Rep 5-year

4.6820

-0.0434

+155bps

-7bps

Czech Rep 10-year

5.2653

-0.0397

+194bps

-6bps







Poland 2-year

4.8510

-0.0860

+180bps

-12bps

Poland 5-year

5.7300

-0.0780

+259bps

-11bps

Poland 10-year

6.2460

-0.0590

+292bps

-8bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

,

4.25

4.51

4.63

3.98

Poland

,

4.10

4.31

4.47

3.92

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

Capital.com is an execution-only brokerage platform and the content provided on the Capital.com website is intended for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the products or securities to which it applies. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided.
The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance.
To the extent permitted by law, in no event shall Capital.com (or any affiliate or employee) have any liability for any loss arising from the use of the information provided. Any person acting on the information does so entirely at their own risk.
 

Cryptocurrency-related content is intended solely as news and market commentary. Crypto Derivatives are not available to Retail clients registered with Capital Com (UK) Ltd.