CEE MARKETS-FX gains on after US midterms, zloty up before rates decision
WARSAW, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Central European currencies firmed on Wednesday, as US midterm election results pressured the dollar, with the zloty recovering from multi-year lows ahead of the Polish central bank's rates decision, which analysts expect to be steady.
A sweeping Democratic victory in the midterm elections sent the dollar tumbling, giving emerging market currencies such as those in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) some breathing room
ING analysts said the election results were already well priced, thus limiting implications for emerging Europe
"A weaker US dollar and lower 10-year Treasury yields should further support the general sense of relief seen in recent days, driven by headlines regarding US-Iran negotiations and lower energy prices," ING added
The trajectory of the conflict remains unclear, but market signals of continued relief should help push CEE rates lower and ease pressure on regional currencies, ING said
The National Bank of Poland will keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, according to a vast majority of respondents polled by Reuters, unless inflation is projected to remain higher for longer
By 1114 GMT the Polish zloty firmed 0.16% against the euro to 4.3980
The implications of the US results could hamper further firming for the dollar and boost the zloty and other emerging market currencies, Polish state-run development bank BGK said
Prime Minister Donald Tusk signed off on the appointment of four members of NBP's management board on Tuesday — removing the risk of a deadlock — which analysts saw as favourable for the zloty
The Czech crown gained 0.14% and traded at 24.3050 per euro
Czech headline inflation slowed a touch in October, preliminary data showed on Wednesday, although bets on an interest rate hike by the Czech National Bank on Thursday remain with a pick-up in price growth still expected
"The persistently elevated growth in services prices in particular signals to the CNB that domestic factors continue to exert upward pressure on inflation, warranting a restrictive monetary policy stance," Erste Bank said
"Today’s data do not change our view on the future path of CNB interest rates," Erste Bank added
Elsewhere, the Hungarian forint was up 0.28% to 363.40 per euro
CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1214 CET | |||||
CURRENCIES | Latest trade | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2026 | |
Czech crown | 24.3050 | 24.3380 | +0.14% | -0.57% | |
Hungarian forint | 363.4000 | 364.4000 | +0.28% | +5.77% | |
Polish zloty | 4.3980 | 4.4110 | +0.30% | -4.15% | |
Romanian leu | 5.3460 | 5.3435 | -0.05% | -4.71% | |
Serbian dinar | 117.5100 | 117.6400 | +0.11% | -0.18% | |
Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET | |||||
| |||||
STOCKS | Latest | Previous close | Daily change | Change in 2026 | |
Budapest | .BUX | 148997.45 | 146075.44 | +2.00% | +34.19% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 4199.93 | 4138.60 | +1.48% | +31.91% |
| |||||
BONDS | Yield (bid) | Yield change | Spread vs Bund | Daily change in spread | |
Czech Rep 2-year | 4.2798 | -0.0563 | +123bps | -9bps | |
Czech Rep 5-year | 4.6820 | -0.0434 | +155bps | -7bps | |
Czech Rep 10-year | 5.2653 | -0.0397 | +194bps | -6bps | |
Poland 2-year | 4.8510 | -0.0860 | +180bps | -12bps | |
Poland 5-year | 5.7300 | -0.0780 | +259bps | -11bps | |
Poland 10-year | 6.2460 | -0.0590 | +292bps | -8bps | |
| |||||
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | 3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |
Czech Rep | , | 4.25 | 4.51 | 4.63 | 3.98 |
Poland | , | 4.10 | 4.31 | 4.47 | 3.92 |
Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices | |||||