Appian targets about $2 billion for Africa but warns policy risk is driving capital away

By Maxwell Akalaare Adombila

DAKAR, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Appian Capital Advisory plans to deploy $5 billion to $7 billion globally over the next 12 to 24 months, with roughly $2 billion for Africa, CEO Michael Scherb said, though policy uncertainty is pushing investment toward Latin America.

The London-based mining private equity firm currently holds three active investments in Africa and has exited three others. Those exits include projects in Burkina Faso and Tanzania, which came amid a coup and an election crisis, respectively. Appian has four active investments in Latin America, mainly in Brazil.

African governments have tightened control over their mining sectors in recent years, revising mining codes, raising royalties and demanding greater local participation as they seek a larger share of mineral wealth.

Latin America has generally maintained more stable fiscal and permitting regimes, despite resource nationalism in major producers like Chile, Peru and Mexico.

"The geology doesn't change, but government policy does," Scherb told Reuters on Tuesday. "It's costly for investors to leave, but it's also costly for governments because that capital simply moves elsewhere."

Scherb said Appian views Morocco, Namibia and Botswana as top-tier mining jurisdictions and is evaluating opportunities in Ghana, Ivory Coast, Mauritania and Senegal.

Appian invests in gold, copper, zinc, rare earths and other critical minerals. It remains bullish on copper, he said, expecting supply growth to struggle to keep pace with demand from electrification, artificial intelligence, data centres and power-grid expansion.

He said African countries could capture a significantly larger share of global mining investment by streamlining permitting and improving policy predictability.

"The capital is there," Scherb said. "The question is which countries will create the stability and predictability needed to attract it."