Leonardo stock forecast: Defence sector pullback, industrial plan

Leonardo is an Italian defence and aerospace group listed on the Borsa Italiana, with its 2026–2030 Industrial Plan targeting €142bn in cumulative orders through 2030. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Explore third-party LDO price targets and technical analysis.

By Dan Mitchell11:00 (UTC), 15 April 2026

Photo: Shutterstock

Leonardo S.p.A. (LDO) is trading at €56.03 as of 12:51pm UTC on 10 April 2026, within an intraday range of €54.92–€59.41 on Capital.com's EUR-denominated share CFD feed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Pressure on LDO reflects a broader European defence sector pullback. Morgan Stanley noted on 2 April 2026 that every EU defence stock was trading around 20% below its recent peak, attributing the decline primarily to sentiment-driven valuation derating rather than to any deterioration in underlying earnings. The sector's forward P/E has compressed from roughly 23x to approximately 20x, sitting at what Morgan Stanley analysts led by Ross Law described as 'the bottom of the 20–25x range, which we think most accurately reflects fundamentals' (Investing.com, 2 April 2026).

Weakness also coincides with broad European equity selling tied to US tariff escalation following President Trump's 2 April 2026 reciprocal tariff announcement, which weighed on the FTSE MIB and wider European indices (TradingView, 2 April 2026). Nonetheless, company-specific newsflow has remained constructive. Leonardo's updated 2026–2030 Industrial Plan, approved by its Board of Directors on 12 March 2026, projects cumulative orders of €142 billion through 2030 (Leonardo, 12 March 2026) and identifies approximately €6 billion in new business opportunities from its Michelangelo Dome defence architecture between 2026 and 2030 (Leonardo, 12 March 2026).

Leonardo stock forecast 2026–2030: Third-party price targets

As of 8 April 2026, third-party Leonardo stock predictions reflect a post-Industrial Plan upgrade cycle that ran into renewed uncertainty after reports emerged of a potential leadership change at the company.

Investing.com (sell-side consensus)

Investing.com aggregates forecasts from 18 analysts covering Leonardo and reports an average 12-month price target of €68.59, with a high estimate of €79.50 and a low of €50.50, alongside a predominant Buy consensus. The spread reflects a wide divergence between more cautious Hold-rated analysts, who cite stretched valuations after LDO's multi-year rally, and Overweight-rated brokers, which flag continued European defence budget expansion as the primary earnings tailwind (Investing.com, 10 April 2026).

Alpha Spread (consensus aggregation)

Alpha Spread compiles Wall Street analyst estimates for Leonardo and reports an average 12-month LDO stock forecast of €69.12, with a high forecast of €83.48 and a low of €50.50. The aggregator notes that the consensus derives from multiple 12-month forecasts and reflects a general Outperform skew across the covering panel, amid sustained expectations of double-digit revenue CAGR through the 2026–2030 Industrial Plan horizon (Alpha Spread, 10 April 2026).

MarketBeat (consensus rating)

MarketBeat records a Moderate Buy consensus for Leonardo's OTC ADR (FINMY), based on one Strong Buy, two Buy, and three Hold ratings from a panel including Barclays (Overweight, €68 target) and Jefferies (Buy). The rating distribution follows a net positive revision cycle driven by the company's FY2025 earnings beat and the 12 March Industrial Plan presentation, with the ADR last trading at $36.22 on that date (MarketBeat, 1 April 2026).

MarketBeat (consensus rating, 7 April)

MarketBeat records a Buy consensus, with the panel composition shifting to two Strong Buy, two Buy, and two Hold ratings, following upgrades from both Barclays and Citigroup. The note flags FINMY trading down approximately 5.7% to $32.91 in that session, sitting below its 50-day moving average of $34.09, amid the broader market sell-off linked to US tariff escalation (MarketBeat, 7 April 2026).

MarketScreener (CEO replacement risk)

MarketScreener reports that Leonardo shares fell 8.1% following media reports that CEO Roberto Cingolani may not be reappointed, injecting governance uncertainty after a period in which the stock had gained approximately 400% over three years. The report, citing La Repubblica, names Lorenzo Mariani of MBDA Italia as a frontrunner to succeed him, while noting that final confirmation from the Italian government remains pending as part of a broader renewal of state-controlled entities (MarketScreener, 8 April 2026).

Takeaway: Across these sources, Leonardo stock predictions converge on an average 12-month target in the €68–€69 range and a Buy or Outperform majority, while the CEO succession reports introduced a company-specific risk factor that market prices had not yet fully absorbed as of 10 April 2026.

Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

LDO stock price: Technical overview

LDO stock price rades at €56.03 as of as of 12:51pm UTC, sitting below a stacked moving-average cluster where the 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs run at approximately €60, €58, €55 and €52 respectively, according to TradingView data. The 100-day SMA near €54.87 registers a buy signal, while all shorter-term SMAs through the 10-day to 50-day range carry sell signals, reflecting the price's retreat from the March highs. The Hull moving average (9) at €57.52 also carries a sell signal, consistent with near-term downward momentum.

Momentum is subdued. The 14-day RSI reads 43.09, sitting in neutral territory and indicating no oversold extreme, while the MACD (12, 26) at −0.32 maintains a sell signal. The ADX (14) at 15.42 sits just above the 15 threshold, suggesting trend strength is weak rather than established.

On the topside, the classic pivot point at €59.60 represents the nearest reference; a daily close above this level could put the R1 level near €64.70 into view. On the downside, the S1 classic pivot at €52.94 is the next notable reference below the current price, with the 200-day SMA near €52 offering a longer-term support shelf (TradingView, 8 April 2026).

This is technical analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.

Leonardo share price history (2024–2026)

LDO’s stock price closed at €21.70 on 11 April 2024, beginning a gradual move higher that saw the stock end 2024 at €25.90, a gain of roughly 19.4% over that stretch, as the broader European defence re-rating began to take hold.

In 2025, the move accelerated sharply. LDO opened the year at €26.07 and surged through the spring, before briefly pulling back to €39.33 on 7 April 2025 amid broad market volatility linked to US tariff concerns, then recovering to close 2025 at €49.23, an annual gain of approximately 88.8%, as European governments committed to higher defence budgets and Leonardo's improving earnings profile drew renewed attention.

The rally extended into early 2026. LDO opened the year at €51.46, then accelerated after strong FY2025 results and the 12 March Industrial Plan presentation pushed the stock to an intraday peak of €66.37 on 12 March 2026. Since then, the stock has pulled back, closing at €56.16 on 10 April 2026, approximately 9.1% up year to date and 32.7% up year on year, with recent weakness attributed to broader market selling and CEO succession uncertainty.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Leonardo (LDO): Capital.com analyst view

Leonardo (LDO) has been one of the standout performers in the European defence sector over the past two years, rising from around €21.70 in April 2024 to an intraday high of €66.37 on 12 March 2026, as the structural re-rating of European defence stocks gathered pace following sustained increases in NATO member spending commitments. The company's FY2025 results, which showed revenues of €19.5 billion, a 28% increase from 2023, alongside an ambitious 2026–2030 Industrial Plan targeting cumulative orders of €142 billion, provided a concrete earnings basis for the valuation expansion, according to Reuters (12 March 2026). However, it is worth noting that elevated valuations in the sector leave the stock sensitive to any deterioration in the geopolitical backdrop or a reversal in government defence budget commitments, either of which could compress multiples materially.

More recently, the Italian government's decision to replace CEO Roberto Cingolani with MBDA executive Lorenzo Mariani, confirmed on 9 April 2026, triggered an 8.5% single-day decline, illustrating how governance and political risk can weigh on the stock independently of broader market conditions. While Mariani is a company veteran, leadership transitions at state-controlled entities can introduce near-term strategic uncertainty. Equally, some analysts have argued that fresh management could accelerate execution of the Industrial Plan if the incoming CEO commands stronger political backing from the Meloni government.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Capital.com’s client sentiment for Leonardo CFDs

As of 8 April 2026, Capital.com client positioning in Leonardo CFDs shows 95.6% buyers and 4.4% sellers, putting buyers ahead by 91.2 percentage points and placing sentiment firmly in heavy-buy, one-sided-long territory. This snapshot reflects open positions on Capital.com and can change rapidly, particularly during periods of elevated volatility such as the current session.

Summary – Leonardo 2026

As of 12:51pm UTC on 10 April 2026, Leonardo (LDO) was trading at €56.03, within an intraday range of €54.92–€59.41, having pulled back from a recent high of €66.37 reached on 12 March 2026.
Key price drivers include accelerating European defence budgets, Leonardo's FY2025 revenue growth of 28% to €19.5 billion, and the updated 2026–2030 Industrial Plan targeting €142 billion in cumulative orders, with the Michelangelo Dome programme cited as a strategic upside driver by multiple brokers.
The most significant recent development is the Italian government's confirmed replacement of CEO Roberto Cingolani with MBDA executive Lorenzo Mariani on 9 April 2026, which triggered an 8.5% single-session decline and introduced governance uncertainty alongside the broader market sell-off linked to US tariff escalation.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

FAQ

Who owns the most Leonardo stock?

Leonardo’s shareholder base includes a significant stake held by the Italian state through the Ministry of Economy and Finance, which has historically made the government the company’s largest single shareholder. That structure means political and governance developments can matter alongside earnings, orders and sector trends. Ownership positions can change over time, so readers should check the latest company filings or investor relations updates for the most current breakdown before relying on any specific percentage.

What is the 5 year Leonardo share price forecast?

There is no single reliable five-year LDO stock forecast, because long-term estimates depend on variables that can change materially over time. These include defence spending plans, order execution, margins, leadership decisions, geopolitical developments and broader market valuations. Most third-party targets focus on a 12-month horizon rather than five years. Longer-term forecasts should therefore be treated as scenario-based views, not fixed outcomes, and not as a prediction of future performance.

Is Leonardo a good stock to buy?

Whether Leonardo is a good stock to buy depends on an investor’s objectives, risk tolerance, time horizon and view of the defence sector. Recent results, higher European defence spending and the company’s industrial plan have supported interest in the stock, but valuation, market volatility and governance changes also add risk. A strong share price run does not remove downside risk, so the question is less about whether the stock is ‘good’ and more about whether it suits a particular approach.

Could Leonardo stock go up or down?

Leonardo stock could move in either direction, depending on how company-specific and external factors develop. On the upside, investors may focus on order growth, defence budget expansion, earnings delivery and execution of the 2026–2030 Industrial Plan. On the downside, the share price could remain sensitive to valuation pressure, wider equity market weakness, tariff-related risk sentiment and uncertainty linked to leadership changes. In practice, both bullish and bearish drivers can influence price action at the same time.

Should I invest in Leonardo stock?

That is a personal decision rather than a general yes-or-no question. Investing in Leonardo involves weighing potential opportunities against the risks, including sector re-rating risk, company execution risk and political or governance uncertainty. Past performance and third-party price targets do not guarantee future returns. Anyone considering exposure should review the company’s fundamentals, recent news and their own financial situation carefully, and where appropriate seek independent financial advice before making an investment decision.

Can I trade Leonardo CFDs on Capital.com?

Yes, you can trade Leonardo CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.