Ferrari stock forecast: US tariffs, Middle East shipments

Ferrari is a Maranello-based luxury car maker whose 2026 outlook reflects US auto tariffs, suspended Middle East shipments, and a €3.5bn share buyback programme. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Explore third-party RACE price targets and technical analysis.

By Dan Mitchell4 hours ago

Photo: Shutterstock

Ferrari N.V. (RACE) last traded at $351.34, within a session intraday range of $345.78–$354.23 on 10 April 2026 (10:43am UTC). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Price action has been shaped by several converging factors. US tariff policy remains a central overhang: the White House announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most trading partners while raising duties on Chinese imports to 125%, which triggered sharp swings across equity markets in the days prior and provided some relief to European-listed luxury names, including Ferrari, which manufactures exclusively in Maranello, Italy, and therefore has direct exposure to US auto import duties of 25% (Reuters, 3 April 2025).

White House, 9 April 2025). At the company level, Ferrari reported full-year 2025 net revenues of €7.15 billion (+7% year on year) and adjusted EBITDA of €2.77 billion at its 10 February earnings release, while guiding for revenues of approximately €7.5 billion and an EBITDA margin of 39.0% in 2026 (Ferrari IR, 10 February 2026). The company has also disclosed a share buyback programme of up to €3.5 billion, with approximately €232 million deployed in the first tranche through 6 April 2026, per Ferrari's own regulatory filing (Ferrari NV, 7 April 2026). Additionally, Ferrari temporarily suspended most shipments to the Middle East in mid-March 2026, a development that weighed on the stock, with Italy-listed shares falling over 3.2% and US pre-market shares losing over 2.5% on the day of the announcement (Investing.com, 19 March 2026).

Ferrari stock forecast 2026–2030: Third-party price targets

As of 10 April 2026, third-party Ferrari stock predictions reflect a range of views shaped by US tariff exposure, the temporary suspension of Middle East shipments, Q1 delivery mix dynamics, and the company's order book extending to end-2027.

Jefferies (upgrade to Buy)

Jefferies upgrades Ferrari from Hold to Buy, raising its 12-month RACE stock forecast to $400 from $348. The upgrade rests on expectations for high single-digit revenue growth and gradual margin expansion, supporting a projected 9% mid-term earnings per share compound annual growth rate (TipRanks, 31 March 2026).

Bernstein SocGen Group (Outperform reiteration)

Bernstein SocGen Group reiterates an Outperform rating and a $410 price target on RACE, after Ferrari pulled forward US deliveries, including sequentially higher shipments of the F80 supercar and SF90XX specials, to partially offset the Gulf suspension. Bernstein notes that Ferrari CFO Antonio Picca Piccon confirmed on 18 March 2026 that the company was taking active steps to mitigate the Middle East impact, with the order book stretching to end-2027 providing an additional buffer (Investing.com, 31 March 2026).

UBS (Buy, revised target)

UBS lowers its 12-month price target on RACE to $483 from $555 while maintaining a Buy rating, with analyst Zuzanna Pusz expecting that Q1 2026 will be Ferrari's weakest quarter as delivery volumes are projected to recover from Q2 onward. UBS adds that an ongoing €3.5 billion share buyback and continued institutional accumulation provide near-term support amid broader macro uncertainty (Investing.com, 1 April 2026).

MarketBeat (consensus overview)

MarketBeat aggregates ratings from 16 brokerages, placing the average 12-month price target for RACE at $469.06, within a range of $410 at the low end to $570 at the high end. The consensus rating stands at Moderate Buy, comprising 3 strong buy, 8 buy, and 5 hold ratings, with Jefferies' upgrade to Buy and BNP Paribas Exane's Strong Buy among the most recently issued calls (MarketBeat, 3 April 2026).

Takeaway: across these sources, Ferrari stock predictions range from $400 (Jefferies) to $483 (UBS), with the aggregated 16-analyst consensus at $469.06 and a Moderate Buy rating common across sources. Ferrari's order book depth and an expected Q2 delivery recovery are the most consistently cited supportive factors.

Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

RACE stock price: Technical overview

The RACE stock price last closed at $351.34 as of 10:43am UTC on 10 April 2026, trading above a cluster of short- to medium-term simple moving averages (SMAs) but below the longer-dated ones. The 20- and 50-day SMAs sit at approximately $332 and $347, and the price remains above both, keeping a 20-over-50 alignment intact on the daily chart. The 100- and 200-day SMAs, at $360 and $410 respectively, lie overhead and currently register as sell signals on TradingView's moving-average summary, reflecting the broader correction from prior highs.

The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) reads 57.96, placing it in the upper-neutral range and indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, according to TradingView data. The average directional index (ADX) at 18.02 sits in neutral territory, suggesting the current trend lacks strong directional conviction.

On the upside, the classic R1 pivot at $366.95 is the nearest reference above the last close; a daily close through that level would put the R2 zone near $395 into view. The 100-day SMA at $360 also sits just above the current price and may act as a near-term overhead reference before R1 is reached.

To the downside, the classic pivot point (P) at $339.73 represents initial support, followed by the 20-day SMA shelf near $332. A sustained move below that level would bring the S1 pivot at $311.23 into view as the next notable reference, per TradingView pivot data (TradingView, 10 April 2026).

This is technical analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.

Ferrari (RACE): Capital.com analyst view

Ferrari (RACE) has faced notable headwinds in early 2026, with the stock trading well below its longer-dated moving averages amid a broader de-rating of European luxury names on US tariff concerns and the temporary suspension of Middle East shipments. Yet Ferrari's manufacturing exclusivity, order book extending to end-2027, and confirmed full-year 2026 revenue guidance of approximately €7.5bn provide counterweights to those pressures. The ongoing €3.5bn share buyback adds a further layer of corporate demand beneath the market price.

On the other hand, the 25% US auto import tariff directly raises the landed cost of every Ferrari delivered stateside, the company's largest single market, which could compress margins or dampen demand if Ferrari passes price increases through too aggressively to buyers. The Moderate Buy consensus among 16 covering analysts, with an average 12-month target near $469, reflects cautious optimism rather than conviction, and the stock's proximity to 52-week lows illustrates that material downside risk remains if macro conditions deteriorate further or delivery volumes disappoint in H1 2026.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Summary – Ferrari 2026

As of 10:43am UTC on 10 April 2026, Ferrari (RACE) last closed at $351.34, within a session range of $345.78–$354.23.
TradingView data shows RACE trading above its 20- and 50-day SMAs (approximately $332 and $347) but below the 100- and 200-day SMAs ($360 and $410), indicating a mixed trend structure with no strong directional conviction. The 14-day RSI reads 57.96, placing it in neutral territory.
Key price drivers include US auto import tariffs of 25%, the temporary suspension of Middle East shipments, and Ferrari's €3.5bn share buyback programme, alongside 2026 revenue guidance of approximately €7.5bn.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

FAQ

Who owns the most Ferrari stock?

Ferrari N.V. is publicly listed, so ownership is split across institutional investors, funds, and other shareholders, and those holdings can change over time. In practice, the largest positions are often held by major asset managers and investment firms rather than individuals. Because ownership data changes as investors rebalance or file updated disclosures, readers should check the latest regulatory filings or market data sources for the most current breakdown of Ferrari’s shareholder base.

What is the 5 year Ferrari share price forecast?

A five-year RACE stock forecast is inherently uncertain because it depends on factors that can change significantly over time, including demand for luxury vehicles, tariffs, delivery volumes, margin trends, and broader market conditions. The article focuses on shorter-term broker targets and current technical levels rather than long-range projections. Longer-term forecasts should therefore be treated as scenarios rather than fixed outcomes, especially because analyst targets are usually based on a 12-month view.

Is Ferrari a good stock to buy?

Whether Ferrari is a good stock to buy depends on an investor’s objectives, risk tolerance, and time horizon. The article presents a mixed picture: Ferrari has supportive factors such as its order book, revenue guidance, and share buyback, but it also faces risks from US tariffs, shipment disruption, and weaker recent price performance. That balance means the stock may appeal to some market participants, while others may focus more on valuation, volatility, or macroeconomic risks.

Could Ferrari stock go up or down?

Ferrari stock could move in either direction, depending on how company-specific and external factors develop. Supportive influences mentioned in the article include the order book through end-2027, expected delivery recovery from Q2, and the ongoing share buyback. On the risk side, US auto import tariffs, softer delivery volumes, and wider market volatility could weigh on sentiment. Technical levels also suggest a mixed structure, with the share price above some shorter-term averages but below longer-term ones.

Should I invest in Ferrari stock?

Deciding whether to invest in Ferrari stock is a personal decision and not something this article can answer for an individual reader. The content is for informational purposes only and does not provide investment advice. Before making any decision, it is important to consider your financial situation, trading goals, and tolerance for loss. You may also want to review Ferrari’s latest results, analyst research, and the broader risks affecting automotive and luxury-sector shares.

Can I trade Ferrari CFDs on Capital.com?

Yes, you can trade Ferrari CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.