BMPS stock forecast: Mediobanca merger, CEO shake-up

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena is an Italian bank listed on Borsa Italiana, with recent attention centred on its proposed Mediobanca merger and the March 2026 change in executive leadership. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Explore third-party BMPS price targets.

By Dan Mitchell3 hours ago

Photo: Shutterstock

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. (BMPS) is trading near €7.96 in early European trading at 10:15am UTC on 10 April 2026, within an intraday range of €7.84–€7.98. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Sentiment around the stock has been shaped by several company-specific developments over the past two weeks. The MPS board stripped CEO Luigi Lovaglio of his executive powers on 25 March 2026, following his challenge to the board's decision to exclude him from the slate of nominees for a new mandate, with a shareholder meeting scheduled for April to elect a new board and chief executive (Reuters, 25 March 2026). Separately, MPS and Mediobanca approved merger plans on 10 March 2026, with MPS set to issue up to €1.6 billion in new shares and offer Mediobanca investors 2.45 MPS shares per share held, which remains a key focus for investors (Reuters, 11 March 2026). The broader macro backdrop adds further pressure, as the Bank of Italy's April 2026 projections flagged worsening financing conditions and consumer price inflation rising to 2.6% in 2026 amid elevated energy costs and heightened trade uncertainty (Banca d'Italia, 3 April 2026).

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena stock forecast 2026–2030: Third-party price targets

As of 10 April 2026, third-party Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena stock predictions reflect a broad spread of 12-month price targets, shaped primarily by execution risk around the Mediobanca merger, the ongoing board and CEO transition ahead of the 15 April 2026 shareholder meeting, and the stock's year-to-date decline of approximately 12%.

MarketScreener (broker consensus)

MarketScreener aggregates 11 analyst recommendations for BMPS and records a mean consensus of Outperform, with an average 12-month price target of €10.25, a high estimate of €11.50, and a low estimate of €9.20. The spread above the current share price suggests that analysts see scope for upside in the combined MPS-Mediobanca group's longer-term earnings profile, despite near-term dilution from the share issuance tied to the merger (MarketScreener, 10 April 2026).

Yahoo Finance (analyst price targets)

Yahoo Finance's analyst insights page shows a consensus average BMPS stock forecast of €10.25, with a high estimate of €11.50 and a low of €9.20, against a reference price of €7.85 at the time of capture. The range implies analysts broadly maintain a positive 12-month view, with the low end sitting above recent trading levels as the new board takes shape ahead of the April shareholder vote (Yahoo Finance, 8 April 2026).

TradingView (aggregated analyst targets)

TradingView's BMPS forecast page aggregates nine analyst price forecasts and places the average 12-month target at €8.72, with a high estimate of €10.50 and a low of €7.80. The tighter central estimate, relative to the MarketScreener and Yahoo Finance figures, reflects a different analyst sample and weighting methodology, with the range straddling current spot levels (TradingView, 10 April 2026).

Simply Wall St (consensus price target)

Simply Wall St reports a consensus analyst price target of €8.589 for BMPS, citing analyst earnings expectations for the enlarged group post-merger. The figure sits modestly above the stock's current level of €7.962, amid analyst projections for revenue growth of 19.1% per annum alongside an expected EPS decline of 12.9% per annum as merger costs weigh on near-term earnings (Simply Wall St, 9 April 2026).

Across these Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena stock predictions, 12-month price targets for BMPS range from approximately €7.80 to €11.50, with consensus aggregates clustering between €8.59 and €10.25. The main variables appear to be merger execution, leadership continuity, and Italy's macro outlook, which help explain the more cautious and more optimistic ends of the range.

Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

BMPS stock price: Technical overview

The BMPS stock price trades at €7.962 as of 10:15am UTC, sitting above the 20- and 50-day SMAs at about €7.40 and about €7.98 respectively, though the 100-day SMA at about €8.29 and the 200-day SMA at about €7.93 present a mixed picture at current levels. TradingView’s moving average summary flags a split signal, with shorter-dated averages – the 10- and 20-day SMAs at about €7.60 and about €7.40 – aligned in buy territory, while the 100-day SMA at about €8.29 registers a sell, reflecting the stock’s year-to-date retreat from higher levels.

The 14-day relative strength index reads 58.2, placing momentum in the upper-neutral range. The average directional index at 15.6 sits just above the threshold typically associated with a weak or directionless trend, suggesting no firmly established move in either direction, per TradingView data.

On the topside, the classic R1 pivot at €8.131 represents the nearest reference above current trading; a daily close through that level would put the R2 area near €8.836 in view. To the downside, the classic pivot point at €7.490 acts as initial support, with the 200-day SMA shelf near €7.925 acting as the more significant nearby reference; a sustained move beneath S1 at €6.785 would open the S2 area near €6.144 (TradingView, 10 April 2026).

This is technical analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena share price history (2024–2026)

BMPS’s stock price closed at €3.995 on 12 April 2024, already deep into its longer post-crisis recovery, and spent most of mid-2024 consolidating in the €4.30–€5.30 range. The stock pushed through €5.00 in late July 2024, then dipped sharply to a low of €4.36 on 5 August 2024 amid a broader market sell-off, before recovering to close the year at €6.805 on 30 December 2024 – a gain of roughly 70% over the calendar year.

2025 opened with BMPS in the €6.60–€7.10 band, and the stock broadly ranged between €6.20 and €7.75 through the first half of the year. A notable dip to €5.90 on 9 April 2025 coincided with a period of wider market turbulence, but the stock recovered steadily. By November 2025, it had climbed back above €8.70, and it closed 2025 at €9.158 on 30 December – up roughly 35% on the year.

The 2026 peak came early: BMPS reached a high of €9.490 on 2 January 2026, before a sustained pullback through February and March brought the price back towards the €7.00–€8.00 range. BMPS closed at €7.980 on 10 April 2026, approximately 12.9% down year to date and roughly 28% up year on year.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS): Capital.com analyst view

BMPS has delivered a substantial recovery over the past two years, climbing from the €3–€4 range in early 2024 to a 2026 peak above €9.49 in January, driven by improved profitability, a strengthened balance sheet, and renewed appetite for Italian bank equities. The stock’s current level near €7.962 represents a year-to-date pullback of roughly 13%, as investors weigh the scale and complexity of the proposed full merger with Mediobanca – a transaction that would see MPS issue up to €1.6 billion in new shares and take Mediobanca private under a 2.45-to-1 share exchange ratio. Proponents of the deal cite projected synergies of €700 million and a 100% dividend payout target by 2030 as potential long-term positives. However, near-term EPS dilution from the share issuance, combined with the leadership vacuum following CEO Luigi Lovaglio’s removal, creates meaningful execution risk and may continue to weigh on the share price in the interim.

Revenue is forecast to grow at 19.1% per annum for the enlarged group, though EPS is simultaneously expected to decline by 12.9% per annum, reflecting the cost of integration – a divergence that helps explain why the stock continues to attract both constructive and cautious views at the same time. Italy’s broader macroeconomic backdrop, including the Bank of Italy’s April 2026 projection of slower growth and rising inflation, adds an additional layer of uncertainty.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Capital.com’s client sentiment for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena CFDs

As of 10 April 2026, Capital.com client positioning in Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena CFDs shows that 91.3% of open positions are buyers versus 8.7% sellers, putting buyers ahead by 82.6 percentage points and placing sentiment firmly in heavy-buy, one-sided territory. This snapshot reflects open positions on Capital.com at the time of capture and can change.

Summary – Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena 2026

As of 10:15am UTC, BMPS trades at €7.962, within an intraday range of €7.841–€7.976, approximately 12.9% down year to date.
The MPS-Mediobanca full merger was approved by both boards in March 2026, with a 2.45-to-1 share exchange ratio and up to €1.6 billion in new shares to be issued.
CEO Luigi Lovaglio was stripped of executive powers on 25 March 2026; a new board and chief executive are expected to be elected at the 15 April 2026 shareholder meeting.
On TradingView, short-term moving averages (10- and 20-day SMAs) signal buy, while the 100-day SMA at about €8.29 registers a sell, reflecting the year-to-date retreat.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

FAQ

Who owns the most Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena stock?

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena has historically had a strong link to the Italian state, which became a major shareholder during the bank’s restructuring. However, ownership can change over time as stakes are sold, diluted, or redistributed through market activity and corporate actions. Investors should check the latest company filings, stock exchange disclosures, or investor relations materials for the most up-to-date information on major shareholders and controlling interests.

What is the 5 year Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena share price forecast?

There is no reliable five-year BMPS stock forecast, as most published analyst targets cover around 12 months rather than several years. Over a longer period, the share price is likely to depend on factors such as merger execution, profitability, capital strength, leadership stability, regulation, and the wider Italian economic backdrop. Long-term forecasts should therefore be treated as scenarios rather than precise predictions.

Is Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena a good stock to buy?

Whether Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena is a good stock to buy depends on an investor’s goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon. Some analysts’ 12-month targets sit above the current share price, but the stock also faces meaningful uncertainty linked to the proposed Mediobanca merger, leadership changes, and the wider macro environment. That means the investment case includes both potential upside and material risks, rather than pointing clearly in one direction.

Could Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena stock go up or down?

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena stock could move in either direction, depending on how company and market developments unfold. Supportive factors may include successful merger execution, stronger earnings delivery, and improved investor confidence. On the other hand, dilution from new share issuance, integration costs, management changes, and weaker economic conditions in Italy could weigh on sentiment. Technical levels also suggest a mixed picture, rather than a firmly established trend.

Should I invest in Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena stock?

Only you can decide whether Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena fits your portfolio, financial objectives, and tolerance for risk. This article is for informational purposes only and does not provide investment advice or a recommendation. Before making any decision, it may help to review the bank’s fundamentals, current valuation, analyst forecasts, merger-related risks, and broader market conditions, and to consider seeking independent financial advice where appropriate.

Can I trade Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena CFDs on Capital.com?

Yes, you can trade Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.