Australian dollar forecast: Third-party price target

What’s next for AUD/USD? Here’s our round-up of third-party Australian dollar forecasts, with analysts’ insights, price history, and forex rate drivers for CFD traders.

By Dan Mitchell20:14 (UTC), 18 August 2025 Updated

Australian dollar forecast: Third-party price target — Where next for the Aussie? – Photo: AePatt Journey/Shutterstock

Introduction

The Australian dollar (AUD), often nicknamed the ‘Aussie’, is Australia’s official currency and a major player in global forex markets. Its value reflects the country’s economic health, commodity exports, and strong links to the Asia-Pacific region.

As of 6 August 2025, the AUD/USD was trading between 0.6400 and 0.6500. While the pair is up around 4% year-to-date (YTD), it's gained less than 1% year-on-year (YOY) – a sign of ongoing volatility. Against other majors, EUR/AUD sat at 1.78 (up 7.2% YTD, 6% YOY), and GBP/AUD hovered around 2.05 (up 2.5% YTD, 5.1% YOY).

In July 2025, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate steady at 3.85%, surprising markets that had priced in a 25bps cut. The decision – passed by a 6-3 vote – followed earlier reductions from 4.35% in early 2025 to 4.10% in February, and 3.85% in May.

Past performance isn’t a reliable indicator of future results.

When you trade forex with us, you’re using contracts for difference (CFDs) – CFDs are financial derivatives. They let you speculate on rising or falling prices without owning the underlying asset. CFDs are traded on margin. Leverage magnifies your profits, but also your losses – which amplifies risk.

Australian dollar forecast for 2025 and beyond

As of 6 August 2025, analyst forecasts for AUD/USD offered a mixed picture – ranging from bullish rebounds to cautious downside scenarios.

National Australia Bank (NAB) remained optimistic, forecasting AUD/USD to hit 0.7000 by the end of 2025, rising to 0.7200-0.7300 in 2026 and reaching 0.7500 by mid-2027.

In contrast, ING Think took a more measured stance, projecting an average of 0.6500 in Q3 2025, rising slightly to 0.6600 by year-end. For 2026, ING expects the pair to stabilise around 0.6700, with Australia’s CPI averaging 2.4% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026. It also sees the RBA cash rate falling to 3.10% by 2026.

Scotiabank forecasted AUD/USD at 0.6400 in Q3 2025, climbing to around 0.6600 by year-end, then rising further to 0.6800 in H1 2026 and 0.70 later that year. The bank expects the RBA to hold its cash rate at 3.35%, supporting AUD stability.

Trading Economics offered the most bearish view, predicting AUD/USD to dip to 0.6400 by Q3-end and fall further to 0.6200 over the next 12 months. It also projected EUR/AUD at 1.8000 by Q3-end (rising to 1.8100 in a year) and GBP/AUD at 2.0600, edging up to 2.0800 in 12 months.

Predictions and third-party forecasts are frequently inaccurate, as they can't account for unforeseen market developments. Past performance should never be relied upon as a definitive indicator of future trends.

Longer-term AUD predictions

Looking further ahead to 2030, algorithmic models provided a mixed outlook for the AUD/USD forecast.

Coin Codex projected a 0.6400 average AUD/USD rate for 2025, ranging between 0.6300-0.6500. It foresaw a steady annual increase to 0.6900 by 2028, before dipping back to 0.6300 by 2029, with a maximum of 0.6500 and a minimum of 0.6000.

Gov Capital anticipated a slightly higher average of 0.6600 for AUD/USD in 2025, with a wide potential range between 0.5800 and 0.7600. This forecasting service predicted stability around 0.6700 for 2026 – and in the longer-term – averaging 0.6600 for 2030, between 0.5800 and 0.7500.

Wallet Investor forecasted AUD/USD to average 0.6300 in 2025, within a range of 0.6200-0.6400. It projected further declines – anticipating a drop to an average of 0.6000 by 2026 and continuing downward to 0.5200 by 2030, with minimum and maximum rates between 0.5100 and 0.5300.

Third-party analysts' and algorithmic forecasts are often wrong or inaccurate, and they're unable to account for unpredictable market-moving events. Past performance isn't a reliable indicator of future results.

Australian dollar prediction: Analysts outlook

As of 6 August 2025, the short-term technical picture for AUD/USD leaned bearish. TradingView’s one-month technical summary – based on 11 oscillators and 13 moving averages – signalled a ‘sell’, with 11 indicators bearish, nine neutral, and just four pointing to ‘buy’.

Mahjabeen Zaman, Head of FX Research at ANZ Bank, highlighted continued global interest in the Australian dollar, describing it as a favoured currency among international investors. She noted that a softer AUD supports exporters by allowing them to convert foreign earnings at more favourable rates compared to previous years. ‘It’s no secret global investors have a deep affinity with the Australian dollar,’ she said.

Ivan Colhoun, economist at Bank of Sydney, observed that while the RBA surprised markets by holding rates steady in July, a rate cut in August remains likely – especially given Australia’s rising unemployment rate, now at 4.3%. He suggested the July decision may have been overly cautious and said the outcome of the next meeting hinges on Q2 CPI data.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest outlook (June 2025) supports a cautiously optimistic medium-term view. GDP growth is projected to rise from 1.3% in December 2024 to around 2.2% by mid-2027. Household consumption is expected to pick up, reaching 2.6% by late 2026, helped by stronger real incomes and improving confidence. Inflation is forecast to ease and settle near the upper bound of the RBA’s target range.

Australian dollar 2025 price history

In early 2025, AUD/USD traded steadily between 0.6200 and 0.6400 through the first quarter. Volatility spiked in April, with the pair hitting a multi-year low of 0.6000 on 8 April.

The currency rebounded in May, climbing back above 0.64, and consolidated between 0.6500 and 0.6600 in June amid improving sentiment. July was more mixed – AUD/USD peaked at 0.66 mid-month before easing to 0.64 by month-end.

As of 6 August 2025, AUD/USD remains in the 0.6400-0.6500 range – up around 7% from April’s low but still below late 2024 levels.

What drives the AUD/USD pair?

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decisions

The RBA sets the official cash rate (interest rate) in Australia, which directly influences demand for the Australian dollar. Higher Australian interest rates may increase AUD’s appeal by attracting international investors seeking stronger returns. Conversely, rate cuts could weaken the currency, reducing its attractiveness relative to the US dollar.

Commodity price movements

Australia is a leading exporter of commodities, particularly iron ore, coal, natural gas, and gold. When global demand and commodity prices rise, Australia’s export revenues have historically improved, boosting the Aussie dollar. Conversely, declining commodity prices can weigh on the currency.

China’s economic performance

China is Australia’s largest trade partner and its economic conditions can affect the AUD. Positive Chinese data – such as increased manufacturing output, stronger industrial demand, or higher commodity imports – might support AUD/USD. On the other hand, signs of economic weakness in China, such as slower growth or reduced industrial activity, may pressure the Australian dollar lower.

Global risk sentiment

The AUD is sensitive to shifts in global market sentiment. When investors feel optimistic and risk appetite increases, the Australian dollar could gain as investors favour growth-sensitive currencies. Conversely, during periods of uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, or global market stress, traders often turn to safe-haven currencies like the US dollar, potentially putting downward pressure on AUD/USD.

Domestic economic indicators

Australia’s domestic economic performance – represented in employment, inflation trends, GDP, and consumer confidence data – also influence the AUD/USD rate. Positive data, such as improving employment figures or rising consumer spending, could support the currency. In contrast, weaker-than-expected data or signs of economic slowdown may weigh on the Aussie dollar.

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FAQ

What can influence the Australian dollar exchange rate?

The AUD is influenced by RBA interest rate decisions, commodity prices (like iron ore, coal, and gold), and economic conditions in China. Domestic data – such as jobs, GDP, and inflation – also matters, along with global risk sentiment. The AUD tends to rise in risk-on markets and fall when investors turn cautious. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

How does interest rate policy affect AUD trading?

Interest rate policy set by the RBA can directly impact AUD trading by incentivising investor demand for Australian assets. Higher interest rates may attract foreign investors seeking better returns, which could increase demand for the AUD and push its value higher. Conversely, rate cuts might reduce the currency’s attractiveness, potentially weakening it against peers such as the US dollar.

Is the Australian dollar forecast reliable?

Australian dollar forecasts from third-party analysts provide useful guidance but projections aren’t always accurate. Predictions rely on available economic data and assumptions about future conditions, but unforeseen global or domestic events can significantly alter market dynamics.