Euro forecast: Third-party price target

As of 30 June 2025, EUR/USD was up 13.88% year-to-date and nearly 10% year on year, supported by narrowing rate differentials and improved eurozone sentiment. With the European Central Bank (ECB) cutting rates to 2.15% and the Fed holding steady at 4.5%, diverging policy paths are in focus. Below, we explore the third-party euro forecast for 2025 and beyond, across a range of analysts. 

Euro forecast 2025 and beyond

As of 1 July 2025, most third-party euro forecasts for 2025 and beyond pointed to a steady but gradual rise in the EUR/USD pair over the next 12 months, supported by shifting rate expectations and a more stable economic backdrop in the eurozone.

Several banks, including ING and Scotiabank, expected the pair to hold near 1.14 through mid-2025 before gradually rising. ING projected 1.15 by the end of the year and 1.17 by Q4 2026, while Scotiabank projected a move to 1.16 in the second half of 2025 and 1.22 by the end of next year.

Danske Bank took a slightly more optimistic view, forecasting 1.16 by late July 2025, followed by a steady climb to 1.18 in September and 1.20 in early 2026. AIB, meanwhile, expected the pair to trade in a wider range of 1.10-1.16 in Q2 2025, widening slightly to 1.11-1.17 through early next year.

Conversely, Wells Fargo anticipated a short-term rise to 1.17 by Q4 2025, but foresaw the pair drifting lower again in 2026, with targets of 1.14 by mid-year and 1.12 by Q3.

Short-term technical signals remained bullish according to TradingView, which provided a one-month outlook, in which 13 of 26 indicators pointed to a ‘buy’, with the remainder split between neutral and sell.

Euro to dollar forecast 2030: Long-term view

When it comes to the long-term euro to dollar forecast, Wallet Investor expected a relatively flat profile, with EUR/USD averaging around 1.10 by 2030. Gov Capital took a more optimistic view, projecting a 1.18 average with a potential high of 1.33.

By contrast, CoinCodex offered the most bullish long-term forecast, with the site predicting an average price of 1.56 by 2030, and potentially reaching as high as 1.61 by that point.

EUR/USD prediction: Analysts’ outlook

Analysts remained divided in 2025 on the near-term EUR forecast, with monetary policy divergence and growth differentials driving sentiment.

Wells Fargo expected the Fed to begin easing in September with 75 bps of total cuts by year-end, citing a likely slowdown in growth and labour market cooling. By contrast, the ECB has already cut 200 bps since late 2024 and may be nearing the end of its cycle. ‘We see just one final 25 bps ECB rate cut, to 1.75%, in September,’ the bank noted.

Trading Economics saw signs of stabilisation in the eurozone, with inflation expectations falling and 2025 GDP forecast at 0.9%. The June PMI rose to 40.5 – the slowest decline in nearly three years – and business confidence hit a three-year high.

In the US, the Fed held rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% for a fourth meeting in June. Growth is now seen at 1.4% for 2025, with PCE inflation forecast at 3.0%. Trading Economics noted a cautious stance as policymakers assess the economic impact of President Trump’s policies on tariffs, immigration, and taxation.

Meanwhile, S&P Global’s US Manufacturing PMI held at 52 in June, signalling modest growth, though some analysts warned the recent strength may be short-lived. “Such a boost is likely to unwind in the coming months,” said S&P Global’s Chris Williamson.

Capital.com analyst input: Daniela Hathorn

On 1 July, Capital.com analyst Daniela Hathorn said the euro is expected to stay ‘moderately bullish’ in the second half of 2025, supported by signs of eurozone resilience. With ECB rates at 2% as of June, she noted that the bank can now take ‘a more conservative approach going forward’. This front-loaded stance, she said, had been ‘widely celebrated by euro traders’, giving the currency an extra boost.

At the same time, she highlighted that the US dollar had come under ‘significant downside pressure’ due to President Trump’s trade policies, helping lift EUR/USD above 1.17 – its highest level since September 2021.

‘A recovery in European industrial output or improved risk sentiment from continued easing geopolitical tensions could bolster the pair above the 1.18 level,’ Hathorn added. But she warned of lingering risks tied to US trade talks and ‘fragile peace dynamics in the Middle East and Eastern Europe’.

Is the US dollar losing its crown?

What’s the Euro price history?

The EUR/USD rate extended its downward trend in early 2025, reaching a low of 1.0257 on 10 January, influenced by the sustained strength of the US economy and a cautious outlook for eurozone growth. From late January, sentiment improved and EUR/USD climbed to 1.0520 by 25 February, acting as an early indicator of economic stabilisation in Europe.

Starting in March, the euro recovered further, supported by clearer signals from the ECB and growing market expectations of potential US interest rate cuts. On 18 March, EUR/USD reached 1.0942, driven by stronger economic data, especially from Germany.

April saw additional gains, with EUR/USD reaching its highest level of the year at 1.1523 on 21 April, supported by increasingly accommodative signals from the Federal Reserve and increased investor confidence in the European economic recovery.

In May, EUR/USD experienced brief pullbacks amid cautious market sentiment ahead of significant economic reports, closing the month at 1.1348. In June, the upward trend continued, with EUR/USD reaching 1.1789 by 30 June, potentially influenced by sustained economic improvement in the eurozone, expectations of ongoing accommodative Fed policies, and broader weakness in the US dollar.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

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What drives the EUR/USD pair?

The EUR/USD pair is influenced by a range of macroeconomic indicators, central bank policies, and global geopolitical developments. Shifts in monetary policy, inflation data, and broader market sentiment have historically shaped its direction.

Interest rate differentials

A key driver of EUR/USD is the interest rate gap between the ECB and the US Federal Reserve. Higher rates in one region tend to attract capital inflows, supporting that currency. In recent cycles, the ECB has moved more cautiously than the Fed, leading to periods of euro underperformance. Looking ahead, expectations for further rate adjustments – based on inflation trends and growth data – remain a key factor.

Inflation and growth data

Economic indicators such as inflation, GDP growth, and purchasing managers’ index (PMI) readings can influence policy expectations and move the pair. A slowdown in euro area inflation – last seen dipping below 2% – has historically supported ECB rate cuts. Meanwhile, divergent data between the eurozone and US, such as contrasting PMI results, can contribute to short-term volatility in the pair.

Geopolitical uncertainty

Political developments – such as elections, trade policy changes, or military conflicts – can influence risk appetite and safe-haven demand. Ongoing geopolitical instability has historically affected energy prices and growth expectations, while election cycles in the US and EU add layers of policy uncertainty. In risk-off environments, the dollar often benefits due to its perceived safety, placing downward pressure on the EUR/USD rate.

Commodity and energy markets

The eurozone’s reliance on energy imports, particularly oil and gas, means EUR/USD can react to moves in commodity prices. Higher energy costs can weigh on growth and stoke inflation, influencing both currency valuations and central bank policy paths.

Market sentiment and positioning

Investor sentiment – driven by broader macro trends, rate speculation, and global liquidity – can also guide price action. As with many major pairs, large shifts in trader positioning or institutional flows can lead to momentum-driven moves, especially around key data releases or policy announcements.

Euro trading strategies to consider

Whether you trade EUR/USD or other forex CFDs, applying a structured strategy can help you manage risk and identify potential opportunities more consistently.

• Day trading strategy – day traders aim to profit from short-term price movements by opening and closing positions within a single session.

• Swing trading strategy – swing traders hold positions for several days or weeks, seeking to capture price swings influenced by economic data or market sentiment shifts.

• Trend trading strategy – trend traders follow sustained price movements, typically holding positions while an upward or downward trend remains intact.

• Position trading strategy – position traders take a longer-term view, often holding positions for months.

Read more on trading strategies with our helpful guides.  

Risks and benefits of euro to dollar trading

Trading the EUR/USD pair – the most liquid and widely traded forex pair – offers several potential advantages, alongside key risks to consider.

• Liquidity and tight spreads: EUR/USD benefits from high liquidity, which generally results in tighter spreads and faster execution. This makes it a popular choice for active traders, particularly during overlapping European and US market hours.

• Access to economic data: traders have access to regular and transparent economic updates from both the eurozone and the US, including inflation, GDP, and employment figures. These releases can create trading opportunities, though they also introduce short-term volatility.

• Interest rate differentials: The pair is sensitive to changes in monetary policy from the ECB and the Fed. Shifts in rate expectations can drive price movements – but predicting central bank decisions can be challenging and lead to rapid reversals.

• Global events and sentiment: EUR/USD is influenced by macroeconomic trends, geopolitical shifts, and investor sentiment. Unexpected developments – such as election outcomes or policy changes – can cause sharp moves in either direction.

Use risk management tools such as stop-loss and take-profit orders to help limit losses or lock in gains. However, standard stop-loss orders are not guaranteed. Guaranteed stop-loss (GSL) is available for a fee.

Learn more by reading our in-depth forex trading guide.

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