DAX 40 leads European gains as US equities struggle to recover
The German DAX 40 is on track for a third straight day of gains as it targets the December high just above 20,500. The momentum gathered steam on Monday after a week of lacklustre performance which saw a weak start to the new year for European equities. With the moving averages stacked below the price and an upward-sloping RSI, the momentum in the DAX 40 is likely to continue pushing higher over the coming days. The 20-day SMA at 20,105 is likely to act as immediate support whilst buyers should be aware of possible resistance at the December highs.
DAX 40 daily chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The general sentiment in European markets has turned positive this week. The Eurozone CPI data released on Monday likely helped. The fact that data came in line with expectations calmed both nerves about an overheating and a struggling economy. It seems to have validated the continuation of rate cuts from the ECB but taken away the need for premature cuts as a reaction to weaker growth and falling prices.
Meanwhile, US equities have been struggling to keep up. The major indices closed lower on Tuesday as soon-to-be president Trump came out to defend his tariff plans after they were put into question by a journalist at the Washington Post. The continued rise in bond yields is also putting downside pressure on US equities. The likelihood of less rate cuts from the Federal Reserve is the main driver behind the rise in yields, with markets now expecting rates to remain above 4% in the next 9 months, a significant change from the expected drop to 3% a few months ago. Resilient economic data is the main cause for higher rate expectations, with Tuesday’s Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing PMI data indicating the manufacturing sector continued to expand last month. Friday’s jobs data and Wednesday’s CPI data will be key events to watch out for as they could shift the expected rate path and therefore the momentum in equities.
For now, the S&P 500 remains subdued as it hovers below the 20-day and 50-day SMAs, and the RSI remains below the 50 line. Up ahead, 5,940 has offered short-term resistance in the past whilst 5,860 has been key for bullish reversals.
S&P 500 daily chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.