Market analysis

The Bank of Japan will meet on September 20, 2024, with markets anticipating minimal policy changes. However, inflation risks remain, with core CPI at 2.7% and potential for future interest rate hikes.

As the US Federal Reserve prepares for its most significant decision since ending the rate hike cycle in mid-2023, the balance of risks has shifted. With inflation stabilizing at 2.6% and rising unemployment at 4.2%, the FOMC faces increasing pressure to address employment concerns. Markets anticipate a rate cut, with debate on the extent of the reduction.

Overview of upcoming US inflation data for August, with expectations for a year-over-year CPI drop to 2.6% and core CPI holding steady at 3.2%. Markets will also focus on U.S. PPI data, which is forecasted to show mild growth, reinforcing potential easing inflationary pressures.

The FOMC left Federal Funds Rate unchanged at a target range of 5.25 to 5.50%.

The Bank of Japan meets on Friday, 14th of June, 2024. We preview what to expect from the BOJ decision and how it might impact the USD/JPY and Nikkei 225.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Wednesday, July 10, 2024. We preview what to expect from the meeting and its possible impact on the NZD/USD.

US labour market conditions are expected to have remained stable in May. The latest Non-Farm Payrolls data will be released on Friday, June 7th, 2024, and will provide a health check on the US jobs market.

Higher-than-expected monthly CPI data watered down expectations for RBA interest rate cuts in 2024; the markets will now shift attention to quarterly GDP data on Wednesday, June 5.

US labour market conditions are expected to have softened in June. The latest Non-Farm Payrolls data will be released on Friday, July 5th, 2024.

The markets continue to look for signals of disinflation in the United States. The latest PCE Index data, the US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, is released on May 31, 2024.