Tesla stock forecast: Could Q1 2026 earnings lift targets?
Tesla (TSLA) is a US-listed automotive and clean energy company whose shares trade on the Nasdaq and are closely monitored for earnings performance, delivery data and developments in technology and manufacturing. Explore third-party TSLA price targets and technical analysis.
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is trading around $407.35 as of 12:03pm UTC on 19 February 2026, holding just above the intraday low of $407.25 and below the session high of $416.30 on Capital.com’s TSLA market. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Price action follows Tesla’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release, which exceeded consensus estimates. The company reported earnings per share of $0.50 versus forecasts of $0.45 and revenue of about $24.9bn, slightly ahead of expectations, alongside a gross margin of 20.1%, the highest in roughly two years (Investing.com, 29 January 2026). The stock is also trading against a backdrop of firmer US equity indices, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite recently advancing around 0.8–0.9% to roughly 22,750 (Nasdaq, 19 February 2026). At the same time, management has signalled significantly higher capital expenditure for 2026, projected at more than $20bn for new factories and AI infrastructure (Yahoo Finance, 2 February 2026).
Tesla stock forecast 2026–2030: Third-party price targets
As of 19 February 2026, third-party Tesla stock predictions point to a broad spread of 12-month views. These targets are typically framed as 12-month objectives rather than specific year-end levels and have been updated following Tesla’s recent results and changes in assumptions around electric-vehicle demand, competition and newer business lines.
TipRanks (broker consensus)
TipRanks reports that the average 12-month Tesla price target stands at around $393.51, based on forecasts from a group of covering analysts. The platform notes that this mid-$390s level reflects divergent views on the durability of Tesla’s automotive margins and the potential contribution of software, AI and energy segments (TipRanks, 5 February 2026).
Reuters (analyst coverage snapshot)
Reuters indicates that Tesla was covered by 53 analysts with an overall recommendation score around the ‘Hold’ band, reflecting a mix of buy, hold and sell views. The agency highlights that this distribution of ratings accompanies a wide dispersion of individual price objectives, as analysts reassess Tesla’s earnings outlook and capital-spending plans (Reuters, 14 February 2026).
Barclays (updated target)
Barclays expects Tesla shares to fall by more than 10% over the coming year, setting a 12-month price target of $360 per share. The bank flags concerns around slowing EV sales growth, competitive pressures and execution risks, while also acknowledging longer-term opportunities in software and autonomous driving (The Globe and Mail, 18 February 2026).
Morgan Stanley (revised target)
Morgan Stanley cuts its Tesla price target to $415 from $425 while maintaining an ‘Equal-weight’ stance. The adjustment reflects the bank’s assessment of higher investment needs and competitive intensity, balanced against what it describes as ongoing strengths in Tesla’s technology platform and optionality in new business lines (GuruFocus, 29 January 2026).
Quiver Quantitative (recent target cluster)
Ivan Feinseth of Tigress Financial sets a Tesla target at $550, while Andrew Percoco at Morgan Stanley and Andres Sheppard at Cantor Fitzgerald issue targets of $415 and $510, respectively, according to Quiver Quantitative’s TSLA stock forecast page. The compilation also references very low and very high outliers, such as a $25.28 target from GLJ Research and a $540 target from Mizuho, illustrating how widely analyst expectations diverge around Tesla’s future growth and profitability profile (Quiver Quantitative, 12 February 2026).
Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
TSLA stock price: Technical overview
The TSLA stock price is trading around $407.35 as of 12:03pm UTC on 19 February 2026, sitting below its short- and medium-term moving-average band, with most key tenors clustered in the low-to-mid $420s and $430s. The simple 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages sit at approximately 423, 442, 438 and 386, respectively. This leaves price below the 20- to 100-day cluster but still above the longer-term 200-day baseline. The 14-day RSI, near 42.6, sits in the lower-neutral range, while an ADX reading around 23 suggests a moderate trend backdrop rather than a strong directional phase.
On the topside, the nearest classic resistance stands near 454 (R1), with R2 around 478 coming into focus only if price records a daily close above the first barrier. The classic pivot at 434 acts as an initial support reference on pullbacks, while the 200-day simple moving average around 386 represents a key longer-term support zone. A sustained move below that area could open the way towards the S1 region near 411, depending on broader market conditions (TradingView, 19 February 2026).
This technical analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.
Tesla share price history (2024–2026)
Over the past two years,TSLA’s stock price has moved from growth-stock lows to fresh multi-year highs as sentiment around electric vehicles, technology and broader risk appetite has shifted. In early 2024, TSLA traded below $200, closing at $181.04 on 30 April 2024 after a choppy first quarter that saw repeated rallies fade. By mid-2024, the stock remained range-bound, with prices around $200–$260 through the summer. TSLA finished June 2024 at $197.91, briefly moved above $250 in July, and then eased back.
Momentum increased in 2025, with TSLA breaking through $300 in late May and then trending higher through the summer. The share price closed at $353.19 on 20 February 2025 and dipped towards $215.30 on 10 March before resuming its climb. Into the end of 2025, the stock extended its advance, closing at $450.09 on 31 December 2025 after trading as high as $498.88 during the month. In 2026 so far, price action has been more mixed but remains elevated relative to earlier levels, with TSLA closing at $439.70 on 2 January 2026 and at $407.50 on 19 February 2026.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Tesla (TSLA): Capital.com analyst view
Tesla’s share price has recovered over the past two years, moving from sub-$200 levels in mid-2024 to trade in the $400–$450 range into early 2026. This move coincided with increased investor focus on Tesla’s technology narrative around AI, robotics and software, alongside contributions from its energy storage and services businesses, even as headline automotive volumes and pricing faced pressure.
At the same time, competition in the global EV market has intensified, with rivals such as BYD gaining share and placing pressure on margins. Some market participants view this as a factor that could limit valuation expansion without clearer evidence of sustained profit growth.
Looking ahead, observers often describe Tesla as being at a transition point. Potential growth drivers such as the Optimus humanoid robot, robotaxi initiatives and expanded energy operations attract attention, yet they also introduce execution, regulatory and timing risks. A supportive broader equity backdrop and continued interest in AI-linked companies could coincide with further upside, while weaker macroeconomic conditions, additional EV price competition or delays in new product roll-outs could contribute to volatility.
Capital.com’s client sentiment for Tesla CFDs
As of 19 February 2026, Capital.com client positioning in Tesla CFDs shows 85.8% buyers versus 14.2% sellers, a difference of 71.6 percentage points in favour of long positions. This skew reflects current open positions on the platform and does not in itself indicate future price direction. Client sentiment can change rapidly as market conditions evolve.
Summary – Tesla 2026
- Tesla (TSLA) has risen over the past two years, moving from below $200 in mid-2024 to trade around the low $400s by early 2026.
- Technical indicators show TSLA trading below its 20- to 100-day moving-average cluster in the low-to-mid $420s, while remaining above the 200-day average around the mid-$380s, with RSI in lower-neutral territory.
- Third-party commentary highlights capital-expenditure plans, competition in the global EV market and potential contributions from Optimus, robotaxis and energy operations as key variables. Market participants discuss these factors as both potential growth drivers and sources of execution risk.
- Recent news flow has focused on Tesla’s Q4 2025 results, updated delivery and production figures, and commentary around AI and robotics initiatives, all of which have influenced analyst assumptions and price targets.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
FAQ
Who owns the most Tesla stock?
Tesla’s largest individual shareholder is Elon Musk, the company’s chief executive officer, who holds a substantial equity stake through direct and indirect ownership. In addition to insider holdings, major institutional investors – including asset managers and index funds – also own significant portions of Tesla shares on behalf of their clients. Ownership levels can change over time due to share sales, new issuances, option exercises, and portfolio rebalancing.
What is the 5-year Tesla share price forecast?
Five-year TSLA stock forecasts vary widely and are inherently uncertain. Most published analyst targets focus on a 12-month horizon rather than multi-year projections. Longer-term estimates depend on assumptions about electric-vehicle demand, competition, margins, capital expenditure and the commercialisation of newer initiatives such as autonomy, robotics and energy storage. Changes in regulation, technology, and macroeconomic conditions can also alter these assumptions. As a result, long-term forecasts are generally presented as indicative scenarios rather than precise predictions.
Is Tesla a good stock to buy?
Whether Tesla is a good stock to buy depends on an individual’s objectives, risk tolerance and investment horizon. Analysts currently hold a mix of buy, hold and sell ratings, reflecting differing views on growth prospects, valuation, competition and execution risks. As with any equity, Tesla’s share price can be volatile and may react to earnings releases, guidance updates and broader market conditions. This information is for general educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.
Could Tesla stock go up or down?
Tesla’s share price could move higher or lower depending on company performance, market sentiment and broader economic conditions. Factors such as earnings results, delivery figures, capital-spending plans, competitive dynamics and developments in AI or autonomy may influence price direction. At the same time, macroeconomic trends, interest rates and overall equity-market conditions can affect valuation. Share prices are not guaranteed to move in any particular direction, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Should I invest in Tesla stock?
Deciding whether to invest in Tesla stock is a personal decision that should reflect your financial circumstances, goals and risk profile. Shares can provide exposure to potential corporate growth, but they also carry the risk of capital loss. It may be appropriate to conduct independent research and, where necessary, seek advice from a qualified financial adviser before making an investment decision. Any decision to invest should be based on your own assessment of the risks involved.
Can I trade Tesla CFDs on Capital.com?
Yes, you can trade Tesla CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.