Market Analysis: Are US tech stocks in trouble?

The emergence of DeepSeek earlier this week sent shockwaves through the market, sparking investor panic. The Nasdaq 100 opened sharply lower on Monday as the news unfolded in Asia, plunging over 5% (1,100 points) before recovering some ground later in the session.

The sell-off was centered on the tech sector but had broader implications, causing global stocks to tumble. Among the hardest-hit was NVIDIA, which suffered a 17% decline, wiping nearly $589 billion off its market capitalization—the largest single-day loss for any company on record.

Why Did Tech Stocks Plunge?

The sharp pullback in U.S. tech stocks was driven by two key concerns:

1. Competitive Pressure in AI - DeepSeek’s R-1 model has reportedly achieved performance levels comparable to, or better than, U.S. AI counterparts at a fraction of the cost. This raises fears that leading AI firms—NVIDIA, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), and OpenAI—could face intensified competition, eroding their market dominance.

2. Overinvestment in AI? - The news of DeepSeek’s breakthrough has fueled concerns that the market may have overestimated AI’s profitability, leading to overvaluations in U.S. tech stocks. If AI investments fail to generate expected returns, valuations of major tech firms could come under pressure.

A Shift in Market Sentiment?

This disruption comes at a time when U.S. exceptionalism—particularly in tech—has been driving the bull market. The heavy reliance on the Magnificent Seven (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, NVIDIA, Tesla, and Meta) means that any loss of confidence in these companies poses a real risk to the broader market. Monday’s panic-driven sell-off underscored just how much these firms matter—not just because of their innovations, but due to their sheer market weight.

Is U.S. Tech in Trouble?

To some extent, yes—but it’s not all doom and gloom. Despite this week’s dramatic drop, big U.S. tech stocks still maintain significant competitive advantages that will make them difficult to disrupt overnight:

• Market Dominance – U.S. tech giants still lead in AI infrastructure, cloud computing, and enterprise AI solutions. Microsoft (via OpenAI) and Google have deep integration across multiple industries, securing their competitive edge.

• Geopolitical & Regulatory Barriers – DeepSeek’s global expansion could face challenges due to U.S.-China tensions, AI export restrictions, and regulatory scrutiny in Western markets, potentially limiting its immediate impact.

Earnings Season: A Test for Tech

The current earnings season offers a crucial opportunity for major tech firms to prove the market wrong—but so far, results have been mixed:

• Meta & Microsoft – Both companies failed to justify their heavy AI investments, issuing weaker-than-expected guidance, further rattling investor confidence.

• Apple – While iPhone sales fell short of forecasts, its focus on Apple Intelligence services helped revive investor optimism, stabilizing its stock.

Looking Ahead: A Market Reality Check?

While DeepSeek’s emergence has introduced new competitive pressures, the Magnificent Seven possess the resources and market positions needed to adapt and maintain their leadership in the tech industry.

A Bloomberg survey found that 88% of respondents believe DeepSeek’s emergence will have minimal impact on the Magnificent Seven stocks. Monday’s sell-off was likely an overreaction, as markets tend to “shoot first and ask questions later.”

However, the event has put tech valuations into perspective. Investors may begin to reevaluate whether these companies have become too expensive, especially if their ability to generate strong AI-driven returns is now in question due to a lower-cost competitor entering the scene.