Palladium price forecast: Third-party predictions 2025-2030
As of 21 August 2025, the palladium price stood at $1,110 an ounce – up from $909 at the start of the year, but still some distance from recent highs.
The market continues to respond to shifting industrial demand, supply dynamics in Russia and South Africa, and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
What’s next for the palladium price? In this guide, we review third-party palladium price forecasts for 2025 to 2030, and outline the main factors that could affect price movements in the years ahead.
Introduction
Palladium is a precious metal with established uses in the automotive industry, as well as certain uses in electronics and various industrial processes. Its main function is in catalytic converters, where it assists in reducing vehicle emissions to meet global regulatory standards. A substantial share of the world’s palladium supply is produced in Russia and South Africa, which exposes the market to developments in these regions.
In recent years, demand patterns have been influenced by changes in emissions legislation and the gradual adoption of electric vehicles. Manufacturers have increased efforts to substitute other metals for palladium — particularly platinum — in some applications, while hybrids and petrol vehicles remain dependent on it for catalytic converters. These dynamics, along with periodic supply disruptions, have contributed to significant price fluctuations.
Palladium price history
The palladium price closed at $1,110.00 on 21 August 2025, up from $909 at the beginning of 2025 and $932 at the same point last year.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Palladium price forecast for 2025 and beyond
As of 21 August 2025, third-party analysts provided a varied outlook for the palladium price forecast. HSBC had raised its average forecast to $1,100 per ounce for 2025, up from $977, with $1,135 projected for 2026. The bank noted that industrial demand was steady, though investor sentiment could moderate and ETF accumulation might slow.
UBS took a similar approach, raising its palladium price forecasts by $100 per ounce across all timeframes due to expected declines in Canadian mine production. Despite this, UBS maintained a negative stance, citing continued weakness in the auto sector, which remains a significant source of demand.
Palladium price consensus targets
HSBC and UBS both cited ongoing supply risks – including potential disruptions from Russia and South Africa – but UBS highlighted the metal’s 37% rise so far in 2025, likely driven by short-covering and supply concerns. Futures market data showed a reduction in non-commercial short positions, but overall investor positioning remains net short.
Geopolitical factors continued to play a role. The US threatened secondary tariffs on Russian palladium exports, while South Africa, the world’s second-largest producer, faced similar trade risks. Impala Canada’s plan to close its Lac des Iles mine by May 2026 is expected to remove around 200,000–250,000 ounces from annual supply.
Deloitte, in its 2025 ‘Tracking the trends’ report, noted that the mining and metals sector had increasingly felt the impact of climate change. For example, flooding at Norilsk Nickel’s mines in Siberia in 2021 forced temporary closures, causing a 7% fall in global production of nickel, copper and palladium, as well as platinum. These events highlighted the potential for further production volatility due to environmental factors.
Despite these developments, UBS stressed that palladium remains high risk due to its limited market size and low trading volumes. Price volatility persists, and the bank said that it considered the market suitable only for investors with a high risk appetite.
Algorithmic palladium price predictions
Looking at algorithmic forecasts, Gov Capital’s palladium price prediction for 2025 indicated a year-end price near $1,163, with estimates ranging from $1,046 to $1,279. For 2026, the forecast pointed to $1,276. The service anticipated a longer-term decline, with an average price forecast of $798 for 2030, within a $718–$878 range.
What influences palladium prices?
Several factors shape the palladium price, each bringing its own set of market risks and opportunities:
Industrial demand
Palladium is mainly used in catalytic converters for petrol (gasoline) vehicles, while platinum is more prevalent in diesel systems, making the automotive sector a key driver of demand. Strong car sales, particularly in emerging markets or regions tightening emissions standards, can add upward pressure on prices. Conversely, any slowdown in auto production, growth in electric vehicle, or fuel‑cell adoption, or wider use of recycled autocatalysts may weigh on demand and prices.
Supply trends
Global supply is highly concentrated, with Russia and South Africa together accounting for a substantial share of mining output. Disruptions – such as labour action, logistical constraints, geopolitical issues, or operational problems – can restrict supply and support price increases. On the other hand, new mining projects or technological advances in extraction and recycling can add to supply, potentially placing downward pressure on the palladium price.
Geopolitical risk
Political tensions, sanctions or trade policy changes in top producing countries can disrupt flows and trigger volatility. For instance, new sanctions on Russian exports or instability in South Africa can drive short‑term spikes. A reduction in such risks may, in turn, support more stable market supply.
Investment and speculation
Palladium is also traded as a financial asset. Increased interest from investors, especially during periods of uncertainty or when precious metals are in favour, may contribute to price gains. Lower speculative demand, monetary tightening or a shift to alternative assets can prompt corrections.
Technological change
Substitution is another risk. If manufacturers switch to alternatives like platinum or rhodium in industrial processes, demand for palladium could weaken. Where substitution is less practical, palladium demand may continue to be underpinned by existing industrial applications.
Currency movements
Palladium is priced in US dollars. A weaker dollar can make palladium more affordable for overseas buyers, which may encourage demand. A stronger dollar tends to make it costlier, sometimes limiting broader demand and influencing spot prices.
Recycling and secondary supply
Finally, secondary supply from recycling – mainly from spent catalytic converters – has become increasingly important. Slower recycling rates or supply chain issues can tighten availability, while advances in recycling technology and higher collection rates may increase supply and put downward pressure on prices.
Learn more in our palladium trading guide.
How to trade palladium
You can trade palladium through a commodity exchange such as the New York Mercantile Exchange, or via financial derivatives like contracts for difference (CFDs).
CFDs allow you to speculate on price movements without taking ownership of the metal itself. With CFDs, you can take long or short positions, depending on your view of the palladium price. CFDs are traded on margin, and leverage greater than 1:1 magnifies both potential losses and gains.
Alternatively, you can get exposure to palladium by trading share CFDs on companies operating within the sector. This includes miners, refiners, and industrial users whose business performance is linked to the palladium market.
Trade palladium CFDs with Capital.com.
Palladium commodity trading strategies to consider
Trading palladium CFDs offers several approaches, shaped by your outlook and experience. While each strategy has its own focus, applying risk management and using platform tools – like stop-loss* and take-profit orders – can help you manage your exposure to movements in the palladium price.
Here are some common palladium trading strategies:
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Day trading: day traders target short-term price moves within a single session, often reacting to intraday volatility, economic announcements, or technical signals.
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Swing trading: swing traders look to capture price swings over several days, making use of momentum indicators and changes in sentiment.
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Trend trading: trend traders follow the broader direction of the palladium price, using technical analysis and longer-term charts.
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Position trading: position traders take a long-term perspective, holding trades for weeks or months to benefit from broader market moves.
*Please note that stop-loss orders aren’t guaranteed. A guaranteed stop-loss incurs a fee if triggered.