Palantir stock forecast: Q4 revenue $1.41bn, 2026 guide $7.19bn

Palantir (PLTR) develops data analytics and AI software; Q4 FY2025 revenue rose 70% to $1.41bn and it guided 2026 revenue at about $7.19bn, above consensus. Explore third-party PLTR price targets and technical analysis. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

By Dan Mitchell7 hours ago

Photo: Shutterstock

Palantir (PLTR) is trading at $152.14 as of 4:33 pm UTC on 5 March 2026, within an intraday range of $146.75–$155.27. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Support for the stock's underlying business narrative continues to stem from Palantir's Q4 FY2025 results, in which revenue grew 70% year on year to $1.41 billion, beating analyst estimates, while the company issued full-year 2026 revenue guidance of approximately $7.19 billion, implying 61% growth and well above the prior consensus of around $6.27 billion (Yahoo Finance, 2 February 2026). Defence contract momentum remains a key driver, with Palantir holding a $10 billion U.S. Army framework agreement and a $448 million Navy ShipOS deal, amid an escalating U.S.–Iran geopolitical backdrop that has renewed investor focus on defence-linked technology exposure (Reuters, 1 August 2025). Broader macro headwinds, including renewed tariff uncertainty after the Trump administration announced additional import levies in late February and lingering concerns over AI disruption risks across high-valuation software names, have weighed on the wider tech sector, contributing to PLTR's retreat from recent highs (Reuters, 3 February 2026).

Palantir stock forecast 2026–2030: Third-party price targets

As of 5 March 2026, third-party Palantir stock predictions have shifted markedly between late February and early March 2026, largely in response to the company's Q4 FY2025 earnings beat, its 2026 revenue guidance of approximately $7.19 billion, and rising geopolitical demand for defence AI software. The following notes summarise the most recent individual broker and consensus positions.

Goldman Sachs (post-earnings target cut, Neutral)

Goldman Sachs trimmed its 12-month PLTR stock forecast to $182 from $188, retaining a Neutral rating after Palantir's Q4 revenue came in at $1.41 billion, up 70% year on year, beating the firm's prior estimates. The cut reflects the bank's view that the stock's valuation – at roughly 243x forward earnings at the time – already prices in much of the near-term growth upside, amid broader concerns over elevated insider selling and profit-taking pressure (Benzinga, 3 February 2026).

Daiwa Securities (upgrade to Buy, $180 target)

Daiwa Securities upgraded PLTR from Neutral to Buy and set a 12-month price target of $180, as the stock traded below its post-earnings highs amid broader tech sector weakness. The firm cited Palantir's expanding U.S. commercial AI adoption and the durability of its government revenue base as the primary rationale for the revised stance (MarketBeat, 4 March 2026).

UBS (upgrade to Buy, $180 target)

UBS upgraded PLTR from Neutral to Buy, setting a price target of $180, after the stock had corrected approximately 35% from its late-2025 highs. The bank flagged that the pullback had reset the risk/reward to a more favourable level, with accelerating AI and data infrastructure demand – alongside Palantir's raised 2026 revenue guidance – underpinning the case for recovery (Nasdaq, 27 February 2026).

Rosenblatt Securities (initiated Buy, target raised to $200)

Rosenblatt Securities initiated coverage on PLTR with a Buy rating and a $150 target on 27 February 2026, then raised that target to $200 on 3 March 2026, citing heightened geopolitical risk as a catalyst for increased defence AI spending. Analyst John McPeake applied a higher price/earnings-to-growth multiple of 1.2x on projected 2027 earnings per share, up from the initial 0.9x assumption, with escalating U.S.-Iran tensions cited as a factor that could expand Palantir's government contract backlog (Gurufocus, 3 March 2026).

MarketBeat (consensus overview)

MarketBeat aggregates 28 analyst ratings on PLTR, placing the consensus at Moderate Buy with an average 12-month price target of $187.96; individual estimates span a wide range from $45 to $255, with two strong buy ratings, fourteen buy ratings, ten hold ratings, and two sell ratings. The broad dispersion reflects persistent disagreement over whether Palantir's P/E of approximately 243x is sustainable given its 2026 growth trajectory, even as the directional consensus has shifted towards more positive ratings following recent upgrades from UBS, Daiwa, and Rosenblatt (MarketBeat, 4 March 2026).

Taken together, these recent Palantir stock predictions cluster in the $180–$200 range for 12-month targets, with the 28-analyst consensus sitting near $188. The common thread across upgrades is an improving risk/reward after the 35%+ correction, Palantir's 70% Q4 revenue growth, and defence AI demand, while the main point of divergence remains whether current valuation multiples can be sustained.

Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

PLTR stock price: Technical overview

The PLTR stock price trades at $152.14 as of 4:33 pm UTC on 5 March 2026, sitting just below the 50-day SMA at $158 and the 100-day SMA at $169, which together form a resistance shelf that has capped recoveries in recent sessions. The short-term moving average cluster tells a different story: the 20/50/100/200-day SMAs sit at roughly $137 / $158 / $169 / $162, with price trading above the 20-day and 200-day but below the 50-day and 100-day, reflecting a mixed structural picture. The 14-day RSI stands at 56.08, an upper-neutral reading that indicates recovering momentum without yet signalling an overbought condition.

On the topside, the classic R1 pivot at $159.43 is the first level to watch; a daily close above there would put the R2 zone near $181.68 back in view, with the 50-day SMA at $158 acting as an initial hurdle just ahead. The $155.27 intraday high marks the most recent session ceiling, and price has so far been unable to sustain a break above it.

On pullbacks, the classic pivot point at $142.83 provides initial support, with the 20-day SMA at $137 representing the next meaningful MA shelf below. Should price lose the pivot-point level on a closing basis, the S1 reference near $120.59 would come into focus as the next downside reference; losing the 20-day SMA would suggest a more sustained deterioration in the short-term trend (TradingView, 5 March 2026).

This is technical analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.

Palantir share price history (2024–2026)

PLTR’s stock price opened March 2024 trading near $26, a level that looks modest against where the stock sits today at $152.14 as of 5 March 2026 – a gain of roughly 485% over the two-year period.

The stock spent most of 2024 consolidating in the $20–$45 range, briefly dipping to around $20.45 in April before recovering steadily. A sharp post-election rally in November 2024 was the turning point: PLTR surged from roughly $42 in late October to close the year at $75.24 on 31 December 2024, as sentiment around AI government contracts and the new U.S. administration's defence priorities grew.

2025 brought a more volatile period. PLTR climbed through the $80s and $100s in early 2025, then fell to an intraday low of $65.59 on 7 April amid a broader tech sell-off, before staging a sharp recovery. By early November 2025 the stock hit an intraday high of $222.05 on 3 November, its peak over this period, before cooling into the year-end close of $177.60 on 31 December 2025.

PLTR opened 2026 near $182, then sold off sharply through February, dropping as low as $126.45 on 24 February amid renewed tariff fears and broader Nasdaq weakness. The stock has since partially recovered, closing at $152.21 on 5 March 2026 – approximately 16% down year to date, but roughly 102% higher year on year.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Palantir (PLTR): Capital.com analyst view

Palantir's price trajectory over the past two years reflects the volatile nature of high-growth AI and defence technology stocks. The stock's climb from around $26 in early March 2024 to an intraday peak above $222 in November 2025 illustrates how quickly sentiment can shift when a company sits at the intersection of artificial intelligence and government spending, two of the most closely watched investment themes of the current cycle. That same sensitivity, however, cuts both ways, as the subsequent retreat toward $126 in late February 2026 – driven by tariff uncertainty and valuation concerns – demonstrates how rapidly momentum can reverse when broader risk appetite deteriorates.

Looking at the current picture, Palantir's Q4 FY2025 revenue growth of 70% year on year and its 2026 guidance of approximately $7.19 billion provide a tangible basis for the more constructive analyst consensus; yet with the stock still trading at elevated earnings multiples, even modestly disappointing macro data or a shift in government spending priorities could weigh on the price. Both narratives warrant consideration in equal measure.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Capital.com’s client sentiment for Palantir CFDs

As of 5 March 2026, Capital.com client positioning in Palantir CFDs is skewed toward the long side: 86.7% buyers vs 13.3% sellers, which puts buyers ahead by 73.4 percentage points and leaves positioning strongly net-long. This snapshot reflects open positions on Capital.com at the time of writing and can change rapidly as market conditions evolve.

Summary – Palantir 2026

PLTR trades at $152.14 as of 4:33 pm UTC on 5 March 2026, down roughly 16% year to date but approximately 102% higher year on year.
Over the past two years, PLTR surged from around $26 in March 2024 to an intraday peak above $222 in November 2025, before retreating sharply through early 2026.
Technical indicators present a mixed picture: price sits below the 50-day and 100-day SMAs, with the 14-day RSI at 56.08 – an upper-neutral reading suggesting recovering but unconfirmed momentum.
Key price drivers include Palantir's Q4 FY2025 revenue growth of 70% year on year, 2026 revenue guidance of approximately $7.19 billion, and strong U.S. government and defence contract demand.
Broader macro headwinds, including renewed U.S. tariff uncertainty and high valuation multiples – around 243x forward earnings – continue to weigh on near-term price sentiment.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

FAQ

Who owns the most Palantir stock?

Palantir’s shareholder base is led by large institutions, with major passive managers such as Vanguard and BlackRock commonly cited among the biggest holders in public filings. Ownership is split across institutions, insiders and retail investors, and the 'largest holder' can vary depending on whether you look at individual entities, fund complexes, or the most recent reporting date. Some datasets also highlight sizeable strategic or single-entity holdings.

What is the 5 year Palantir share price forecast?

There isn’t a single dependable five-year PLTR stock forecast. Longer-horizon projections published online often rely on model assumptions and can change materially as new earnings, guidance and macro conditions emerge. In practice, widely reported sell-side research tends to focus on shorter horizons, such as 12-month targets, which have recently clustered around the $180–$200 area in some broker notes and consensus summaries. Beyond that, uncertainty increases, especially for high-valuation growth stocks.

Is Palantir a good stock to buy?

Whether Palantir is 'good' to buy depends on your goals, time horizon and risk tolerance, and this article can’t provide personal investment advice. From the information covered, potential positives include strong recent revenue growth and raised guidance, plus exposure to government and defence demand. Offsetting that, the stock has shown large drawdowns and has traded at high valuation multiples, which can amplify moves in either direction. A decision should weigh both upside drivers and downside risks.

Could Palantir stock go up or down?

Yes. Palantir’s share price can rise or fall quickly because it’s sensitive to earnings outcomes, forward guidance and contract news, as well as broader market conditions. In the article’s context, upside catalysts may include continued commercial adoption and government contract momentum, while downside risks include valuation compression, tariff-related uncertainty, shifting risk appetite in tech, and changes in public-sector spending priorities. Technical levels can also influence short-term trading behaviour, but they don’t predict direction.

Should I invest in Palantir stock?

This article is informational and can’t tell you whether you should invest. If you’re considering Palantir, it can help to check how it fits your wider portfolio, how much volatility you can tolerate, and what would invalidate your thesis (for example, weaker growth, guidance changes, or macro shocks). You may also want to compare the company’s growth expectations with its valuation and consider position sizing and risk controls. If you’re unsure, consider independent research or professional advice.

Can I trade Palantir (PLTR) CFDs on Capital.com?

Yes, you can trade Palantir CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.