Nexi S.p.A. stock forecast: Q1 2026 earnings and guidance
Nexi is an Italian payments group listed in Milan. Its latest results reaffirmed 2026 guidance, while Reuters has reported preliminary CVC takeover interest. Explore third-party NEXI price targets and technical analysis. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Nexi S.p.A. (NEXI) is trading at €3.47 in afternoon trading in Europe as of 1:50pm UTC on 18 May 2026, within an intraday range of €3.40–€3.80. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Several factors have shaped sentiment around the stock in recent weeks. Nexi's Q1 2026 results, reported on 7 May, showed revenues of €821.4 million, up 1.0% year-on-year, with underlying growth at 5%; EBITDA reached €396.5 million, up 2.6%, slightly ahead of consensus, while full-year guidance was reaffirmed (Nexi Group IR, 7 May 2026). Reuters reported on 28 April that private equity firm CVC Capital was in the early stages of exploring a potential €9 billion bid to take Nexi private, though sources said the proposal remained preliminary (Reuters, 28 April 2026). CVC had also indicated it would not proceed without Italian government support, while Italy's state lender CDP was reported to be opposed to selling its stake (Reuters, 29 April 2026). Broader pressure on European fintech equities, linked to ongoing contract renegotiations and merchant-book M&A headwinds that Nexi has flagged as likely to persist through 2026, continues to weigh on the sector backdrop (Reuters, 5 March 2026).
Nexi outlook: Q1 results, CVC interest and broker targets
As of 18 May 2026, third-party Nexi S.p.A. stock predictions are shaped mainly by the group's Q1 2026 results, reaffirmed full-year guidance, and the preliminary M&A approach from CVC Capital. The following targets summarise distinct third-party broker and consensus estimates captured within that period.
Intermonte (neutral, target cut)
Intermonte confirmed a neutral rating on Nexi on 8 May 2026, setting a price target of €3.60, reduced from its prior level, after the Q1 2026 results. The broker noted that expected excess cash generation of around €750 million in 2026 implies an 18% free-cash-flow yield at its target price, while flagging that full-year revenue growth is guided broadly in line with FY 2025 and EBITDA is expected to be broadly flat year-on-year (Websim/Intermonte, 8 May 2026).
Intesa Sanpaolo (upgrade to buy)
Intesa Sanpaolo upgraded Nexi to buy from neutral on 11 May 2026, keeping its price target unchanged at €4. The upgrade followed Nexi's Q1 2026 EBITDA of €396.5 million, which came in above the company-compiled consensus of around €380 million. The broker cited the result as evidence of improving execution against the group's three-year plan (MarketScreener, 11 May 2026).
MarketScreener (broker consensus snapshot)
MarketScreener's consensus page for Nexi, updated 11 May 2026, aggregates 18 analyst ratings and places the average 12-month price target at €3.71, with a high estimate of €6 and a low of €3.50, against a last close of €4.11. The mean recommendation is cited as Hold, reflecting a broadly cautious stance amid uncertainty over the pace of margin recovery and the outcome of the preliminary CVC approach (MarketScreener, 11 May 2026).
Investing.com (analyst poll)
Investing.com's consensus page for Nexi, as of 15 May 2026, aggregates projections from 17 analysts and places the average 12-month price target at €3.81, spanning a low of €2.63 to a high of €6. The overall consensus rating is Buy, based on 12 buy, four hold, and two sell recommendations. The spread in estimates reflects divergent broker assumptions on whether Nexi's structural headwinds in merchant-contract renegotiations will ease within the guidance timeframe (Investing.com, 15 May 2026).
Reuters (equity quote and coverage)
Reuters' equity data page for Nexi carried a delayed last price of €3.70 as of 15 May 2026, reflecting the stock's position within the €3.60 – €3.80 range that has prevailed in the weeks since the Q1 results release. Reuters' earlier reporting from late April noted that the preliminary CVC approach was complicated by Italy's state lender CDP signalling it would not sell its stake, a factor brokers cited as reducing the probability of a formal offer materialising (Reuters, 15 May 2026).
Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Nexi earnings: Q1 2026 results and upcoming schedule
Nexi S.p.A. reported its Q1 2026 financial results on 7 May 2026, with figures that came in slightly ahead of analyst expectations. Group net revenues reached €821.4 million for the quarter, representing 1.0% reported growth and around 5% underlying growth year-on-year. EBITDA came in at €396.5 million, up 2.6% year-on-year and above the company-compiled analyst consensus of around €380 million. EBITDA margin expanded to 48.3% (Nexi Group IR, 7 May 2026).
Nexi reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance alongside the Q1 release, maintaining its outlook for net revenues to grow broadly in line with FY 2025, EBITDA to remain broadly flat year-on-year, and excess cash generation of around €750 million after strategic investments. A dividend of €0.30 per share, representing a 20% increase year-on-year, was confirmed for payment on 20 May 2026. The group also filed minutes from its shareholder meeting on 13 May 2026, confirming the resolutions adopted at the annual general meeting (Nexi Group IR, 13 May 2026).
Looking ahead, Nexi's next scheduled financial reporting event is the H1 2026 interim results, expected in late July 2026 in line with the group's standard reporting calendar. No official date had been confirmed as of 18 May 2026. Investors and analysts will be monitoring progress against the full-year guidance targets, particularly underlying revenue growth and margin trajectory, in the context of the preliminary CVC Capital approach reported in late April (Reuters, 28 April 2026).
NEXI stock price: Technical overview
The NEXI stock price trades at €3.47 as of 1:50pm UTC on 18 May 2026, below its moving-average stack and well under both the 200-day SMA at €4.11 and the 200-day EMA at €4.01, which together could indicate the formation of a significant overhead resistance area. The 20/50/100/200-day SMAs are arrayed at €3.92 / €3.44 / €3.54 / €4.11 – a technically weaker sequence that leaves price compressed below most of these levels and remains consistent with a broader downtrend on the daily chart.
Momentum readings also may indicate a subdued short-term picture. The 14-day RSI at 36.3 sits in the lower-neutral zone, not yet at oversold extremes, while the ADX at 31.3 indicates an established trending environment rather than a ranging one. Together, these readings can be associated with sustained directional moves rather than mean-reversion bounces.
On the upside, the classic pivot point at €3.80 is the first reference above current levels. A daily close there would put the R1 level at €4.41 back in view. On the downside, S1 at €3.44 is the nearest classic support, with S2 at €2.83 the next reference should that level break (TradingView, 18 May 2026).
This is technical analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.
Nexi S.p.A. share price history (2024–2026)
NEXI’s stock price opened May 2024 above €6.30 and held broadly in the €5.70–€6.40 range through much of that summer. The decline picked up pace into autumn, with the share slipping from around €6.20 in late September 2024 to around €5.50 by November, before recovering briefly towards €5.90–€6 in December 2024 and ending the year around €5.36.
2025 brought sharper swings. Nexi opened January near €5.40 but drifted lower through the first quarter into the €4.60–€5.10 range. A modest mid-year recovery carried the stock back above €5.20–€5.60 through the summer. It touched a two-year high close of €5.57 on 4 November 2025, then reversed. In early March 2026, Nexi's strategic update and revised earnings outlook prompted a single-session drop from €3.38 to a close of €2.88 on 5 March, amid heavy selling across the payments sector.
The stock rebuilt from that low, recovering through €3.20–€4.20 between April and early May 2026, and briefly clearing €4.28 on 11 May after Q1 results came in above consensus. It has since pulled back, with NEXI closing at €3.47 on 18 May 2026, approximately 35.2% lower year-on-year.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Share prices are indicative and may differ from live market prices.
Nexi S.p.A. (NEXI): Capital.com analyst view
Nexi's price trajectory over the past two years reflects a stock navigating a difficult structural transition. The shares traded above €6 through much of mid-2024, supported by broadly positive sentiment towards European fintech and stable payment volumes across the group's core Italian and Central European markets. That premium has since unwound sharply. In March 2026, the stock fell 20% in a single session after a strategic update flagged persistent headwinds from merchant-contract renegotiations and muted near-term earnings growth. A preliminary M&A approach from CVC Capital, reported in late April 2026 at an indicative value of around €9bn, offered a potential re-rating catalyst. However, Italy's state lender CDP signalled opposition to any sale of its stake, leaving the situation unresolved and reducing the support that a potential transaction might otherwise have provided.
The Q1 2026 results, which beat EBITDA consensus and reaffirmed full-year guidance, suggest the underlying business may be stabilising. The confirmed dividend of €0.30 per share also points to continued cash generation and board confidence in the balance sheet. Against that, the stock remains well below its two-year average, momentum indicators are weak, and the broader European payments sector continues to face margin pressure from competitive renegotiations. Whether the Q1 beat marks the start of a sustained recovery or a pause in a longer de-rating remains open.
Capital.com’s client sentiment for Nexi S.p.A. CFDs
As of 18 May 2026, Capital.com client positioning in Nexi S.p.A. CFDs shows 85% long vs 15% short, putting buyers ahead by 70 percentage points and leaving sentiment heavily skewed towards long positions. This snapshot reflects open positions on Capital.com and can change.
Summary – Nexi S.p.A. 2026
- NEXI trades at €3.47 as of 1:50pm UTC on 18 May 2026, down roughly 35% year-on-year and well below its mid-2024 highs above €6.30.
- Key drivers include merchant-contract renegotiations, muted near-term earnings growth guidance, and ongoing pressure across European fintech margins.
- Q1 2026 results beat EBITDA consensus at €396.50m and full-year guidance was reaffirmed, offering some near-term stabilisation signals.
- CVC Capital was reported exploring a preliminary €9bn takeover bid in late April, though Italy's CDP signalled opposition to selling its stake.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
FAQ
Who owns the most Nexi S.p.A. stock?
Nexi’s shareholder base includes institutional investors, strategic holders, and a large free float. Recent reporting has described Hellman & Friedman as Nexi’s largest shareholder, following Nexi’s merger with payments group Nets, while Italy’s state lender CDP has been reported as the second-largest shareholder, with a stake of around 19%. Ownership can change over time, so traders should check Nexi’s latest shareholder disclosures before making any decisions.
What is the five-year Nexi S.p.A. share price forecast?
Five-year NEXI stock forecasts should be treated with caution, as long-term estimates depend on assumptions that can change significantly. The article focuses on shorter-term third-party analyst targets captured between 1–18 May 2026, which ranged from €3.60 to €4, with consensus averages around €3.71–€3.81. Longer-term performance may depend on revenue growth, margin recovery, contract renegotiations, sector conditions, and whether any M&A approach develops into a formal offer.
Is Nexi S.p.A. a good stock to buy?
Whether Nexi is a good stock to buy depends on an individual’s objectives, risk tolerance, time horizon, and portfolio exposure. The company’s Q1 2026 results came in slightly ahead of consensus and full-year guidance was reaffirmed, which may support the stabilisation case. However, the share price remains well below its mid-2024 levels, technical indicators remain weak, and margin pressure across European payments continues to create uncertainty. This is not investment advice.
Could Nexi S.p.A. stock go up or down?
Nexi stock could move in either direction. Factors that could support the price include stronger-than-expected earnings, progress on margin recovery, continued cash generation, or a clearer M&A outcome. Factors that could weigh on the price include weaker revenue growth, further pressure from merchant-contract renegotiations, broader weakness in European fintech equities, or the failure of any takeover interest to develop. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Should I invest in Nexi S.p.A. stock?
Only you can decide whether Nexi S.p.A. fits your financial goals and risk profile. The article highlights both supportive and challenging factors: Q1 2026 EBITDA beat consensus and guidance was reaffirmed, but the stock remains under pressure, with unresolved M&A uncertainty and sector-wide margin headwinds. Before investing, consider the company’s fundamentals, valuation, technical picture, and broader market conditions. You may also wish to seek independent financial advice.
Can I trade Nexi S.p.A. CFDs on Capital.com?
Yes, you can trade Nexi S.p.A. CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.