NVIDIA stock forecast: Upcoming Q4 Earnings Shape Outlook
Nvidia is a US-listed semiconductor company that designs GPUs and related technologies for gaming, data centres and AI, and is a major constituent of US equity indices. Explore third-party NVDA price targets and technical analysis.
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is trading around $189.71 in early US pre-market dealings on Monday, 23 February 2026, after moving between an intraday low of $186.37 and a high of $190.02 on Capital.com’s platform. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The current session comes as investors focus on NVIDIA’s upcoming fiscal Q4 2026 earnings report, scheduled for 25 February (Yahoo Finance, 17 February 2026). Sentiment around the stock also reflects broader US technology performance, with recent gains in the Nasdaq Composite highlighting continued interest in large-cap growth and AI-related names (Nasdaq, 22 February 2026).
NVIDIA stock forecast 2026–2030: Third-party price targets
As of 23 February 2026, third-party NVIDIA stock predictions indicate a broad 12-month range from around $240 to $350. These projections sit above recent spot levels, although targets vary widely between institutions. Across research notes, analysts anchor their valuations to expectations for AI-driven data centre demand, hyperscaler capital expenditure and NVIDIA’s product roadmap, particularly ahead of the upcoming earnings release.
Morningstar (fair value estimate)
Morningstar reiterates a long-term fair value estimate of $240 per share for NVIDIA, describing the company as having a wide economic moat and assigning a very high uncertainty rating. The valuation reflects expectations for sustained AI-related growth, balanced against execution risks, competitive pressures and semiconductor cyclicality ahead of the 25 February earnings release (Morningstar, 19 February 2026).
Goldman Sachs (broker target)
Goldman Sachs maintains a 12-month NVDA stock forecast of $250 per share, alongside a positive rating. The bank states that its target assumes NVIDIA can deliver revenue and earnings above consensus estimates into 2026, supported by AI-related data centre demand and a premium valuation multiple ahead of Q4 results (Yahoo Finance, 8 February 2026).
TipRanks (consensus overview)
TipRanks reports that Wall Street analysts assign NVIDIA a Strong Buy consensus rating with an average 12-month price target of $261.84. This average implies around 39% upside from the referenced share price at the time of publication. The consensus, based on 35 Buy, one Hold and one Sell rating, reflects expectations for continued AI-driven growth, while also spanning a wide range of individual forecasts (TipRanks, 23 February 2026).
RBC Capital Markets (broker target)
RBC Capital analyst Srini Pajjuri reaffirms a Buy rating on NVIDIA with a 12-month price target of $240 per share ahead of Q4 FY26 results. The note references expectations for revenue and earnings modestly above consensus and highlights management commentary around a potential backlog exceeding $500bn for 2025–26. The target rests on assumptions of sustained demand for AI accelerators, while recognising sector and valuation risks (TipRanks, 22 February 2026).
Cantor Fitzgerald (broker target)
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst C.J. Muse reiterates a Buy rating on NVIDIA with a 12-month price target of $300 per share. The target reflects expectations that AI-related demand could remain resilient, with NVIDIA’s position in advanced GPUs and accelerators viewed as central to revenue and earnings prospects through 2026 (Pintu, 3 January 2026).
Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
NVDA stock price: Technical overview
The NVDA stock price trades around $189.71 as of 9:15am UTC on 23 February 2026, holding above a rising moving-average band on the daily chart. The simple 20/50/100/200-day moving averages cluster near 186 / 185 / 186 / 173, leaving the price modestly above the short- and medium-term averages and well above the longer-term 200-day measure.
The 14-day RSI, at approximately 54.9, sits in upper-neutral territory. Meanwhile, the ADX, near 10.3, indicates a weakly defined trend despite positive signals from momentum and MACD indicators.
On the upside, traders may monitor whether NVDA sustains trade above the moving-average cluster. A daily close further above the 20- and 50-day averages could maintain the current technical tone. On pullbacks, the short-term moving-average zone around 185–186 forms an initial reference area. Further below, the 200-day SMA near 173 represents a longer-term trend level; a sustained move beneath it could shift the broader technical picture toward prior support zones (TradingView, 23 February 2026).
This technical analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.
NVIDIA share price history (2024–2026)
NVDA’s stock price has advanced over the past two years, rising from around $79 at the end of February 2024 to approximately $189 by 23 February 2026. During 2024, the stock moved from the low-$80s in early March to above $120 by late June, before consolidating in a broad $100–$140 range into year-end.
In 2025, NVDA extended its upward trajectory, climbing from roughly $138 at the start of January to above $180–$200 by November. The price fluctuated between mid-$100s pullbacks and highs near $211 on 3 November 2025. Momentum moderated into early 2026, with the stock trading largely in the mid- to high-$180s in January and February and closing at $189.87 on 23 February 2026. Over the two-year period shown, the share price more than doubled, though the path included several corrections and consolidation phases.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
NVIDIA (NVDA): Capital.com analyst view
NVIDIA’s share price over the past two years reflects its position within the AI and data centre investment theme. The move from around $79 in late February 2024 to near $189 by February 2026 illustrates how shifts in earnings expectations and sector sentiment can influence valuations. Periods of acceleration have alternated with consolidation and retracements, underscoring the stock’s sensitivity to news flow, guidance updates and broader equity-market conditions.
Strong demand for AI-linked semiconductors and favourable earnings results can support the share price. Conversely, weaker technology sentiment, changes in interest-rate expectations, regulatory developments or company-specific challenges could weigh on performance. As with many large-cap growth stocks, volatility may occur in both directions.
Capital.com’s client sentiment for NVIDIA CFDs
As of 23 February 2026, Capital.com client positioning in NVIDIA CFDs shows 90.6% buyers versus 9.4% sellers, a difference of approximately 81.2 percentage points. This distribution indicates that a majority of open NVDA CFD positions on the platform are long at the time of writing. Client sentiment can change and should be considered alongside other fundamental and technical factors.
Summary – NVIDIA 2026
- As of 9:15am UTC on 23 February 2026, NVIDIA (NVDA) trades around $189.71, more than double its level from late February 2024 and recently consolidating in the $180–$200 range.
- Daily technical indicators show the price above clustered short- and medium-term moving averages, with RSI in neutral territory and ADX signalling a relatively weak trend environment.
- Key themes influencing the stock include expectations for AI-driven data centre demand, hyperscaler capital expenditure, NVIDIA’s product pipeline and broader US technology sector performance.
- Near-term attention centres on Q4 FY26 earnings and updated guidance, with market participants weighing growth prospects against valuation, competition and regulatory considerations.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
FAQ
Who owns the most NVIDIA stock?
NVIDIA’s largest shareholders usually consist of major institutional investors, including global asset managers and index fund providers, alongside company executives and board members. Holdings can change over time as institutions rebalance their portfolios or adjust exposure to the semiconductor and technology sectors. Public filings, such as annual and quarterly reports, set out details of significant shareholders. Retail investors also hold NVIDIA shares, either directly or through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds.
What is the five-year NVIDIA share price forecast?
There is no single, agreed five-year NVDA stock forecast. Most published analyst targets focus on a 12-month horizon, and longer-term projections vary widely depending on assumptions about AI demand, competition, product development and broader economic conditions. Over a five-year period, semiconductor cycles, regulatory developments and global growth trends may materially affect the company’s performance and valuation. Long-term forecasts are inherently uncertain and do not guarantee future outcomes, so investors typically treat them with caution.
Is NVIDIA a good stock to buy?
Whether NVIDIA is considered a ‘good’ stock depends on your individual objectives, risk tolerance and investment horizon. The company operates in areas such as AI and data centre technology, which have attracted significant investor interest, but its valuation and share price can fluctuate. Market conditions, earnings results and competitive dynamics may all influence performance. It’s important to assess the risks involved and consider independent research before making investment decisions. This information is provided for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.
Could NVIDIA stock go up or down?
NVIDIA’s share price can move in either direction, sometimes sharply. Positive earnings results, constructive guidance or increased demand for AI-related products may coincide with upward price movements. Conversely, weaker results, changes in interest-rate expectations, regulatory developments or broader market volatility could weigh on the stock. Like many large-cap technology shares, NVIDIA has experienced both rallies and pullbacks in recent years. Price movements reflect a range of fundamental and market-driven factors and are not predictable with certainty.
Should I invest in NVIDIA stock?
Deciding whether to invest in NVIDIA shares requires careful consideration of your financial situation, goals and tolerance for risk. Shares can provide exposure to the company’s performance, but they also carry the risk of capital loss. You may wish to review company reports, analyst commentary and sector trends, and consider seeking independent financial advice if appropriate. Nothing in this article should be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell NVIDIA shares.
Can I trade NVIDIA CFDs on Capital.com?
Yes, you can trade NVIDIA CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.