Novo Nordisk stock forecast: $2.1bn Vivtex deal
Novo Nordisk is a Denmark-based pharmaceutical group focused on diabetes and obesity care, recently announcing a $2.1bn Vivtex collaboration and planned US price cuts for Ozempic and Wegovy from 2027. Explore third-party NVO price targets and technical analysis.
Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) is trading around $37.83 in early US hours on 26 February 2026, moving within an intraday range of $37.66-38.71 on Capital.com’s platform as of 1:55pm UTC. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Price action follows a series of developments across Novo Nordisk’s obesity and diabetes portfolio. These include a recently announced collaboration with Vivtex worth up to $2.1bn to develop next-generation oral biologic medicines (Reuters, 25 February 2026), plans to cut US list prices for semaglutide-based drugs Ozempic and Wegovy from January 2027 (Reuters, 24 February 2026), and the upcoming launch of oral Ozempic tablets for diabetes after FDA approval of new doses (Reuters, 4 February 2026).
Novo Nordisk stock forecast 2026–2030: Third-party price targets
As of 26 February 2026, third-party Novo Nordisk stock predictions show a range of price targets and ratings after weaker guidance and obesity-drug trial setbacks. Brokers have revised both absolute targets and implied upside. The following summaries outline six distinct analyst and consensus views published during February 2026.
J.P. Morgan (downgrade and reset)
J.P. Morgan downgrades Novo Nordisk from Overweight to Neutral and lowers its target for the Copenhagen-listed shares to 250 DKK (Danish kroner). This implies a reduced valuation based on about 13 times projected 2027 earnings. The bank attributed the move to CagriSema trial data that fell short of expectations relative to Eli Lilly’s Zepbound and reduced longer-term obesity-drug sales forecasts by 40-63% for 2027-2030, reflecting more cautious growth assumptions (MarketScreener, 24 February 2026).
MarketBeat (consensus rating and target)
MarketBeat reports that Novo Nordisk A/S carries a consensus Hold rating, with an average NVO stock forecast of $56.07 across Buy, Hold and Sell recommendations. The service notes that this average target followed several downgrades and stood above prevailing prices, while incorporating increased uncertainty around guidance, pricing pressure and competitive dynamics in GLP-1 therapies (MarketBeat, 24 February 2026).
Benzinga (multi-analyst overview)
Benzinga states that 14 analysts collectively assigned Novo Nordisk a consensus price target of $80.72 per ADR, with individual targets ranging from $31 to $160. The article describes sentiment as mixed but generally constructive, as analysts weigh near-term risks – including regulatory and competitive factors – against expectations for continued demand in diabetes and obesity treatments (Benzinga, 5 February 2026).
TIKR (valuation-model scenario)
TIKR outlines a valuation scenario under which Novo Nordisk’s ADR could justify a target price of $62. The model references implied total upside of about 24% and roughly 8% annualised returns through 2026 from the stated reference level. The analysis assumes sustained volume growth in obesity and diabetes drugs and robust profitability, while noting that price reductions, heightened competition and execution risks could produce outcomes that differ from these projections (TIKR, 16 February 2026).
Predictions and third-party forecasts are inherently uncertain, as they cannot fully account for unexpected market developments. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
NVO stock price: Technical overview
The NVO stock price trades around $37.83 as of 1:55pm UTC on 26 February 2026, well below its key daily moving-average cluster, with the 20/50/100/200-day moving averages grouped near 49/53/52/57. The 14-day RSI stands near 25, indicating oversold conditions rather than lower-neutral territory, while the ADX near 31 suggests an established trend backdrop rather than a range-bound phase. With most short- and medium-term SMAs and EMAs positioned above the current price, the broader daily bias reflects pressure below the moving-average band. The 9-period Hull moving average near 38 acts as a closer, more responsive reference level.
On the topside, the first technical reference is the classic R1 pivot around 65.27, with R2 near 71.09 coming into view only if price records a sustained daily close above that initial level. On pullbacks, initial support is marked by the classic pivot near 58.33. The 100-day SMA around 52 forms the next notable moving-average reference, and a clear break below this region could bring the S1 level near 52.51 into focus (TradingView, 26 February 2026).
Technical analysis is based on historical price data and does not predict future performance. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.
Novo Nordisk share price history (2024–2026)
NVO’s stock price spent much of 2024 in a three-figure range, closing at $86.22 on 31 December 2024 after trading above $130-140 during the summer and early autumn. Through 2025, the stock trended lower from around $120 in late February. In December, the share gapped down from above $100 on 19 December to about $85 by year-end, before extending the decline into early 2026.
In 2026 so far, NVO has moved from $52.49 on 2 January to $37.96 on 26 February. The share briefly traded above $64 in late January, then fell from $59.05 on 2 February to below $40 by 23 February. As of 26 February 2026, the price stands well below both its late-2025 levels around $51 and its February 2025 close near $89.62, highlighting the scale of the repricing over the past year.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Novo Nordisk (NVO): Capital.com analyst view
Novo Nordisk’s share price has declined in early 2026, with the New York-listed stock moving from above $60 in January to the high-$30s by 26 February as the market responded to weaker guidance and obesity-drug trial updates. The move follows several years of strong performance linked to GLP-1 obesity and diabetes treatments and illustrates how valuation can adjust when expectations around growth, pricing and competition change.
Several factors now interact. On one side, the company has flagged ‘unprecedented’ price pressure and plans to cut US list prices for Wegovy and Ozempic from 2027. It also faces a setback in its next-generation obesity drug CagriSema and ongoing competition from Eli Lilly. These developments could weigh on margins and growth if pressures persist. On the other side, Novo Nordisk continues to report solid obesity-care sales and retains a leading share of the GLP-1 market. Lower list prices may support access and volumes over time, although there is no certainty about how this may translate into future earnings or share-price performance.
Capital.com’s client sentiment for Novo Nordisk CFDs
As of 26 February 2026, Capital.com client positioning in Novo Nordisk CFDs is currently skewed towards long exposure, with 97.4% of positions on the buy side and 2.6% on the sell side. This represents a difference of approximately 94.8 percentage points. This data reflects open positions held by Capital.com clients at the time of writing and may change. Client sentiment does not indicate future price direction.
Summary – Novo Nordisk 2026
- As of 1:55pm UTC on 26 February 2026, Novo Nordisk trades near $37.83, below its late-2024 three-figure levels and its February 2025 close around $89.62.
- On the daily chart, price remains under the 20/50/100/200-day moving-average cluster in the low-$50s. RSI near 25 and ADX above 25 indicate an established downward trend with oversold momentum conditions.
- Key drivers include developments in GLP-1 obesity and diabetes treatments, revised 2026-2030 growth expectations, pricing changes in the US market, and analyst targets currently ranging from roughly $45 to $80 per ADR.
- Recent news highlights weaker 2026 guidance, reported ‘unprecedented’ price pressure, CagriSema trial setbacks and planned US list-price cuts for Wegovy and Ozempic from 2027. Together, these factors shape the current risk-reward profile, which remains sensitive to further clinical, regulatory and competitive developments.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
FAQ
Who owns the most Novo Nordisk stock?
Novo Nordisk has a dual share-class structure, with a controlling stake held by Novo Holdings A/S through the Novo Nordisk Foundation. This structure gives the foundation significant voting power relative to its economic interest. In addition, large institutional investors – including global asset managers and pension funds – hold substantial positions. Ownership levels may change over time as institutions rebalance portfolios or adjust exposure to the healthcare sector.
What is the 5-year Novo Nordisk share price forecast?
There is no single agreed five-year NVO stock forecast. Analyst targets typically focus on 12-month horizons, and even these vary widely, as recent February 2026 estimates show. Longer-term projections depend on factors such as clinical trial outcomes, pricing developments, competition in GLP-1 therapies and global demand trends. Any multi-year forecast involves significant uncertainty and should be viewed as a scenario rather than a prediction.
Is Novo Nordisk a good stock to buy?
Whether Novo Nordisk is considered a ‘good’ stock depends on an investor’s objectives, time horizon and risk tolerance. The company remains a leading participant in diabetes and obesity treatments, but it faces pricing pressure, competitive challenges and clinical risks. Recent share price declines reflect shifting expectations around growth and margins. Investors typically assess fundamentals, valuation, growth prospects and broader market conditions before making a decision. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Could Novo Nordisk stock go up or down?
Like all listed shares, Novo Nordisk stock can move higher or lower in response to earnings results, clinical data, regulatory developments, competitive dynamics and broader market conditions. Technical indicators currently reflect a sustained downward trend, while analyst targets span a broad range. Unexpected developments – positive or negative – may increase volatility. Share prices are inherently uncertain, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Should I invest in Novo Nordisk stock?
Deciding whether to invest in Novo Nordisk stock requires careful consideration of your financial goals, experience and tolerance for risk. Shares can provide exposure to the company’s long-term strategy, but they also carry the risk of capital loss. Some traders use CFDs to speculate on price movements without owning the underlying shares, although leveraged products increase risk and can amplify losses as well as gains. You may wish to seek independent financial advice before making any investment decision.
Can I trade Novo Nordisk CFDs on Capital.com?
Yes, you can trade Novo Nordisk CFDs on Capital.com. Trading share CFDs lets you speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and to take long or short positions. However, contracts for difference (CFDs) are traded on margin, and leverage amplifies both profits and losses. You should ensure you understand how CFD trading works, assess your risk tolerance, and recognise that losses can occur quickly.